India: The FaceBook Evolution

India.  New Delhi & the ROI.  (The Rest of India)

Changes are due soon, if not sooner.  The culture is changing. Why? Empty stomachs know no isms.


Opportunities in India


The only "pent up" demand in the world at the moment is the demand for investment opportunities.  Investors invest to make a profit, not to mitigate their losses.  Therefore, as long as the EuroCrats embrace Merkelism there will be little to feed the economy--or the people.


The confusion lies in the fact that we have been distracted by the loud noises, bright colours, and shiny things of the Big City World of Advanced Technology.  That, and the rising middle class.


Remember the Quotations of Slim Fairview.

"The Rise or Fall of the Middle Class is a leading indicator of a countries economic future."

China:  Rising middle class, rising economy.
India:  Rising middle class, rising economy.
USSR:  No middle class, no more USSR.
US:  Declining middle class--follow the path of the trajectory.

There is growth in China. There is growth in India. Capital Investment Cannot be Far Behind.


For quite some time now there have been reports of food rotting in the fields because the Indian farmer cannot ship his crops to the market.  And there has been the caste system.


Both are changing. What has been reported in the news?


Two articles in the New York Times have championed individuals who have broken free from the caste system to bring prosperity to themselves and to the communities from whence they came.

Add to that the news that China has been making "capital investments" in Latin America. These to bring crops to the docks for export. 


Capital Investment Opportunities


China's emergence, when viewed from the perspective of capital investment, economic development, global trade, and so on, is less an invitation and more a mandate to do business. This both for one's own and for the global economy.  Also, the need to feed the people.


However, as I've often said, "I learned more about management from novels than from textbooks,"  we have Danton's Death by Georg Büchner.  

The Lessons of the Revolution:  "They are suspect, we are suspect, all are suspect."

Back to the ROI.

Following the model already in place, if India cannot ship the food to the market, there are options. Viable options.


1.   Bring the food processing plant to the farms.


2.  Make Capital Investments in the infrastructure to bring the food to the market efficiently.




Prosperity through Peace

Will China see peace as the road to prosperity?  Will India?


"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it." Santayana.


"Those who never learned history are doomed--period!" Slim Fairview


Ramses II  brought untold wealth to Egypt after making peace with the Hittites.



Capital Investment in India will reduce waste in food at the farms.

• Crops will not rot.
• Agricultural investments will increase.
• Economies to scale will bring benefits to agriculture through intensive use of technology in agriculture.

India's farmers will build bridges to one another; pool their resources; leverage their assets; and increase their productivity.


Capital investment will create jobs: construction jobs, processing jobs, and road and rail jobs.  The subsequent result will be to expand the export market and bring revenues to India, returns on investment to China, and food for many more people.


What is the engine driving this?  The Facebook Evolution.  Technology spreading throughout India and the rest of the world will be the force that helps the Indian people and the Chinese people to coalesce.  The results will be positive.


Warmest regards,


Slim


slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2012 Slim Fairview
All rights reserved.

Too Greek to Fail

The Greek Debt Conundrum, conundrum being a better word than crisis, has now become what can be described only as Chancellor Merkel's Toy.


The Analysis

Have we been following Chancellor Merkel's Lead?  Yes.
Have things gotten better? No.
Have things gotten worse? Yes.
Conclusion:  Don't do that!


In addition I've described what has been happening in terms that I'd hoped would help people see beyond the balance sheet.  Why?  Because that is where the problem lies.

Merkelism:  An Economic System based on the fear that someone, somewhere is earning a living.  That somewhere is Greece. That someone is the Greek Bus Driver.

Merkelomics has been the strategy.  However, you cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution.

Only now are people starting to become restive.


History 

It should be pointed out that Greece predates Europe. The Romans brought the Graeco-Roman culture to western Europe. From Egypt to England--perhaps not it the most gracious of manner--government, law, politics, trade, shipping, and so forth was propagated. (by the way, we all know what eventually happened.)
 

Santayana: "Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."

Slim Fairview: "Those who never learned history are doomed--period.


Perhaps the Arab Spring is too recent.  Perhaps the Russian Spring is too current.


For the French: Bastille Day, Robespierre, The Committee for Public Safety.  However, as I've often said, "I learned more about management from novels than from textbooks,"  we have Danton's Death by Georg Büchner.  


The Lessons of the Revolution:  "They are suspect, we are suspect, all are suspect."

For those who forget what happened between 1917 and 1939 we have Dr. Borisz de Balla's Diary of Europe in Conflict (1939-1946).  In some interpretations, Eastern Europe did not embrace the Germans, they feared the Soviet Union.  Now, the chickens have come home to roost.  M. Hollande is criticising the economics of M. Sarkozy.  It is not M. Sarkozy's economics that are the problem. M Sarkozy's diplomacy is the problem.  He went to Berlin one too many times.  I admonished him. "Have the next meeting in Paris." The compromise?  The next meeting was held in Strasbourg. (Merkel wins again.)

The problem in the distressed nations is not capitalism. It is the dalliances with socialism.  In short, M. Hollande is not the solution.


"The Rise or Fall of the Middle Class is a leading indicator of a countries future well being." -- Slim Fairview



China: Rising middle class, rising economy.
India: Rising middle class, rising economy.
Soviet Union:  No middle class, no more Soviet Union.
U.S.  Declining middle class--follow the path of the trajectory.


However, the matter is more than money.  For those who are not familiar with American Television, in the early days, William Bendix played in a television series called, "The Life of Riley."  He was a blue collar worker complete with zip-jacket and lunch pail.  A few decades later, Carroll O'Connor played in a television series called, "All in the Family." He played Archie Bunker, a blue collar worker complete with zip jacket and lunch pail.


The former was a touching look at a man working to support his family, his friends, his community.  The latter was a brutalisation of the blue collar--middle class--worker.  The character, Archie Bunker, was portrayed as ignorant, opinionated, bigoted, and abusive.  This was supposed to accomplish a noble goal. What it accomplished was not noble.  It transformed America into a land where people got ahead to a land where people had to drag others down.  Why mention it?   Why indeed!


Look at the solution for Greece.   Keep cutting debt to make the GDP appear larger.  The economy cannot grown, the country cannot grow, the people cannot grown.  Soon, they won't be able to live.  The Middle Class is declining.  Follow the path of the trajectory!


"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."  -- Santayana


"Those who never learned history are doomed--period!" -- Slim Fairview


Ours was not a revolution of the Sans Culottes.  Ours was a revolution led by those who read Latin and Greek.  Who read the writings of the Greek and Roman philosophers.  Europe went on to produce more philosophers.  We went on to criticise them and laud Mark Twain who wrote Huck Finn (a racist tract) and Pudd'nhead Wilson--a new world ripoff of The Prince and the Pauper.


That is why I brought up a bit of history and culture.  Because I am writing this for European readers. European readers, not leaders!


Marketing Chancellor Merkel recently witnessed S&P (The Black Angels of Merkeldorf) fly through Europe spreading an evil spell:  The Downgrade.


If the ratings remained the same, Merkel could have claimed to have stemmed the tide.
If the ratings had gone up, Merkel could have claimed that her plan is working.


However, the fact that the ratings went down shows that conditions are getting worse.  What is a politician to do?  Claim that this proves that her plan is needed now more than ever.  "The medicine made the patient's condition worse. That is why the patient needs more of the medication."


Still, The Chancellor presses on.


I wrote, Merkel's Trojan Plan--Destroy Greece.  Sneak in under the cover of Bailout, then in the middle of the night, Greece's blackest moment, crush the economy, the people, the country.


Now, things are worse.


I had described one solution as a Ponzi Scheme: Go to China for a bailout. Go to the Middle East for a bailout.  Go to Brazil for a bailout.  Sound familiar? 


Then, Sarkozy's was Merkel's Artful Dodger.  Now, however, that the Artful Sarkozy failed to gather alms for the poor, Madame Christine Lagarde has been pressed into service as "Christina Twist"  Where Sarkozy failed to pick the pockets of the richer nations, Merkel has sent Madame Lagarde out in rags to beg for coppers.  This is not the first time that Madame has seized the opportunity to display both great humility and dignity.  Madame Lagarde handles herself well:  with dignity, grace, perseverance, and a commitment to duty.  And, we may presume, her duty to France, Europe, and the rest of the world.



Still, the problem remains.   The problem lies in the fact that everything seems to revolve around a growing web of Bureaucracies:  The ECB, the IMF, the EFSF, and the EMS. Each, no doubt, (perhaps) vital in its own right, together are far from "greater than the sum of their parts." More bureaucracy, more expense, more regulations, and--dare I say it--more lawyers. (Notice, I did not even touch on the subject of more politicians.)


Follow the Path of the Trajectory: Empires fall. Byzantine, Rome and, before Ronald Reagan declared the Soviet Union the Evil Empire, Russia had an empire under Ivan Grozny.  The Polish Empire, The Austro-Hungarian Empire, The Sun Never Sets on the British Empire, and so on.  However, things are much too interconnected today.  People are much closer. And, there is a new twist--The Internet.  There is now a new social order--a world without borders: Will it become Netopian or a Distopian world?  That remains to be seen.  None-the-less, the IMF declared a slowing of growth.  That is a Global call to arms.

My modest proposal--The Lender of First Resort--was intended to do two things.  Bring the world's economies closer through capital investment--not unlike China's capital investment in Portugal and Argentina--and empower the people of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, et. al. by reminding people that privatisation is not a dirty word when the Greek bus driver owns stock in the company.  (I believe it is called an IPO.)

Greece need not fail. Greece need not collapse.  However, Europe needs to rethink the way it rethinks the solution. For this, we need to remember the strength of the European people lies with their unity.  With the rich traditions of literature, law, commerce, industry, culture, and pursuit, Europe cannot fail if the Europeans muster their resolve.  With no pursuit of Economic Development and Growth, not unlike that which I've been blogging about for almost a year, the end will draw closer, faster until there is no undoing the damage.  Merkel's solutions are the dripping faucet. Soon, the erosion will be irreparable.

My Mother taught me, "nothing for nothing."  It is no longer a question of Greece leaving the Union or Greece going broke.  Now it is a time to realise that perhaps the European people can no longer afford Germany.  That, or that they can no longer afford to follow Merkel's lead. 

Bon Chance.

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2012 Slim Fairview. All rights reserved.

China! Economics! Diversification!

I have been focusing on China lately.  Why?  Follow the path of the trajectory.

I have already pointed out that "the rise or fall of the middle class is a leading indicator of a country's economic future".

China:  Growing Middle Class--Growing Economy.
India:  Growing Middle Class--Growing Economy.
USSR:  No Middle Class--USSR went out of business.
US:  Declining Middle Class--Follow the Path of the Trajectory.

Here is the difference between the Soviet Union and the Peoples Republic of China.

Soviet Union:
5-year plan.
10-year plan
20-year plan.

China:
Hydro Electric Power Dam PROJECT.
High Speed Rail PROJECT.
Super-Computer PROJECT.

However, there is more to gauging China's imminent success. DIVERSIFICATION.

Let's take another look.

Hydro-Electric Power Dam...UTILITIES
High Speed Rail....................TRANSPORTATION
Super-Computer....................TECHNOLOGY

Now we go further.

Investments:

US Treasuries--Self explanatory

Portugal State Assets--China buys Portugal Utility Company.  This addresses two issues.  Chinese concern over European Economy.  Europe is China's largest foreign market.  And the issue of privatisation.  An issue I said was crucial to solving the EuroCrisis.  (Have you not been reading my blog? Merkel's Last Stand: http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/12/merkels-last-stand.html )

Argentina--Capital Investments -- China is investing in agriculture and capital investments in Railroads.

What do we see now?  China looking to the future.  As much as I dislike the word Plan, China's plans include projects and working toward a goal.

Let's Build:

Energy
Transportation
Technology
Agriculture
Currency

From my PowerPoint Presentation: The G-20 in Good Times and Bad   http://www.slideshare.net/slimfairview/the-g-20-in-good-times-and-bad-5802178

Food
Pharmaceuticals
Energy
Economic Development

The only thing missing in the news?  China's Investments in Pharmaceuticals.  However, that's not all.  My PowerPoint Presentation begins with Disaster Planning.  And what are the EuroCrats doing at the moment?  Planning for the (possible, probably or perceived) coming [economic] disaster in Europe.  I am not surprised.

There is no provision for Capital Investment, Economic Development, or Growth.  Without this, you cannot solve the problems in the European Economy.

While austerity is essential, Merkel's one-pronged approach is not a solution. It is a weapon.

Bailout! has become the "Trojan Plan" being used to destroy Greece.

It will hurt no one to read:
Merkel's Last Stand http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/12/merkels-last-stand.html

Nor will it hurt to read the combined monographs Economic Stimulus & The Multiplier Effect.

Bon Chance.

Warmest regards,

Slim

If you find anything here to be helpful, please do not hesitate to send me a really tricked-out Google Pixelbook and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note. Slim

www.linkedin.com/in/slimfairview/

Bob Asken
Box 33 
Pen Argyl, PA  18072

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2012 Slim Fairview--All rights reserved.

Merkel's Last Stand

Slim Fairview's Predictions for the Upcoming Conclave of the EuroCrats.


The EuroCrats are fed up. The European people are fed up.

Every Solution concocted at every meeting is revealed to be temporary.

Every attempt to resolve the cause of the problems--causes that are systemic--are impeded by Chancellor Merkel.

Chancellor Merkel's strict demands for Austerity as a one pronged approached has turned the one pronged approach into a weapon.

Chancellor Merkel said, "Why should German taxpayers contribute to a fund to bail out a French bank that will compete with a German bank?"

The argument could be made that it is the Chancellor's job to act first in the interest of Germany. However, as the crisis deepens, Germany will end up as nothing more than last in the line of dominoes to fall.

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/10/oops-euroglitch.html


If anyone has doubts, witness the most recent German bond sale.


Austerity without Economic Development is no solution. Under the management of Chancellor Merkel, The EuroZone has kept Greece and Italy shackled to poverty by keeping Greece and Italy shackled to poverty programmes. Their continued support for Chancellor Merkel is supplication for continued bailout money.


Tim Geithner went to Europe to declaim, "Austerity."

Tim Geithner went on CNN news to declaim, "No country ever cut its way to prosperity."


This is reminiscent of the declamation, "No country ever taxed its way to prosperity," in the first two years of Bill Clinton's first term. There are still those who claim Bill Clinton balanced the budget. In the first two years? http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/11/political-math.html




You cannot cut pay, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution. This is evidenced by the continued problems in Greece.

Recently, Papademos said that he would propose legislation that will include austerity and growth. He proposed austerity and cutting taxes. The Press still has not reported on the growth programmes proposed--if any.

Merkel's most recent proposals were:


For investors to contribute to the bailout fund.

For investors to take a 50% loss. Would you invest in anything if the broker guaranteed you a 50% loss?

The next idea floated was for "coupons" to limit investor losses to 20% - 30%. Investors invest to make a profit, not to mitigate losses.

The next idea floated was to go to China for money, to Brazil for money, to the PetroStates for money. This is not a solution. This is a Ponzi Scheme.


Merkel's parsimoniously doling out Pfennige in exchange for an obeisance in exchange for bailouts that continuously do not solve the problem.


Only recently have I heard from Europe what I've been saying.


There is talk about Merkel not being electable with the current numbers.

Privatisation.

A larger bailout fund. (Though I did not put it that way.) This is not the answer, this is the question: http://sidestreetjournal.blogspot.com/2011/12/lender-of-first-resort.html



The path to the solution is simple:


What have you done?
Did things get better? No.
Did things get worse? Yes.
Don't do that!


Read Lender of First Resort.  If you can have a lender of last resort, you can have a lender of first resort.


With the Crisis arriving at German shores, the panic will cause Merkel to shift strategy. The Chancellor will promise to consider alternatives. Translation: The Chancellor will sit quietly while others talk about alternatives. The Chancellor will concede they should be looked into. The Chancellor will succeed in delaying any serious change by sending any ideas, viable or not, to a committee.

If anyone believes a committee is a good way to solve problems, I shall refute you with one word--Congress!




Slim Fairview's Predictions--Probable and Possible.


Probable:

The EuroCrats will meet to discuss the EuroCrisis.

Discussions may include a larger bailout fund--this will be challenged.

The discussion will move to Economic Development and Growth. Conditions will be imposed:

A strict oversight of indebted nations


Austerity before any capital investment in economic development and growth


An effort to keep the IMF at a distance to prevent Madame Lagarde from participation.


Chancellor Merkel's position on Austerity is analogous to refusing to allow the crew to plug the holes until they have bailed the water out of the boat. If you do not plug the holes, you will never bail the water out of the boat. If the heavily indebted nations have no economic development, bailouts will never be a solution.

Treaty modifications will be discussed. These modifications, understandably, will be intended to insulate Germany from what Chancellor Merkel believes to be the impending collapse of the EuroZone Economy. They will also be intended to allow the micro-management of indebted nations.


Possible:




There will be a call for Chancellor Merkel to step down--from other Nations' Parliaments, but preferably from the German Parliament.


A Lender of First Resort agency will be established. This Agency will buy bonds at a favourable and affordable rate to, say, Greece and Italy, and recoup their investment by selling bonds at a favourable rate to investors. While the difference may cost the Agency, it will be more cost effective than continuing the failed bailout solution.


China will pledge to buy €300 Billion worth of the Agency bonds.
Turkey will pledge to buy the bonds.
Brazil will pledge to buy the bonds.
Russia will pledge to buy the bonds.


Greece and Italy will agree to a privatisation plan that allows Greek & Italian government workers to buy stock in many of the entities they work for. The stock purchases will exceed 50% of the issue allowing Greek and Italian workers to retain a majority share.


Foreign Investors will buy stock.


The Greek and Italian Governments will generate revenue from the sale of the stocks, from the "Corporate" tax rate, from the capital gains tax, from income taxes.

The workers have a choice: A government paycheck that may be smaller or, in the event of being fired, non-existent or receiving a paycheck and a profit from the ownership of the privatised company they work for. Benefits will include pensions and health care.


In any event, many of the ideas included in the monographs I've been posting over the last several months, heretofore not discussed, will finally be discussed. The only question is, will they be discussed seriously, or will they merely be discussed to give the appearance of attempting to solve the problems?



Bon chance.



Slim

If you find anything here to be helpful, please do not hesitate to send me a really tricked-out Mac Book and to put a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note. Slim.


Bob Asken
Box 33
Pen Argyl, PA 18072
Etats Unis

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
All rights reserved.

Liquidity: The EuroCrat's New Suit

THE METAPHOR

Suits are on sale Wednesday.  I get paid Friday.

I can buy the suit on Wednesday using my credit card and pay interest on the charge.

I can buy the suit on Friday and pay the higher price.

Liquidity:

I saved money from my last paycheck to buy the suit.

I buy the suit for the lower price.
I pay no interest.
I earn interest on the money I saved from my last paycheck to buy the suit.

As Eloi Papillon, a character in the novel St. Lawrence Blues (Un Joualonais sa Joualonie) by the gifted French Canadian author Marie-Claire Blais, said, "Credit is the poor man's illusion of wealth" (C'est le pauvre homme de crédit l'illusion de la richesse.)

Bon chance,


Slim


slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Does Social Media Rule the World?

It began with flash mobs.  Then came the Arab Spring.  Now OWS.  In addition, only a few years ago, President Obama used social media to enhance his campaign and to attract younger voters.  John McCain?  He lost.


Facebook
Linkedin
Twitter
Blogspot
Slideshare


Question?  Does Social Media Rule the World?


Slim

Two Down--Merkel to Go!

European Leaders pursue new pact. Closer fiscal Ties.

What have they been doing wrong?


They attempted a solution that failed.

They repeated the failure.

They brought Europe to the brink of disaster.

They decided to talk about doing what they should have done in the first place.

These are the leaders. Oh, boy!


Further reports: The ECB has thus far refused to intervene. Why? Jean-Claude Trichet had a deep concern for his legacy. Too late!

With the new arrangement, if it is implemented—but more on that later—will give Madame Lagarde a larger role.  Now, perhaps Madame will not feel the pressure to ingratiate her self with Angela Merkel.

The ECB is now considering the larger efforts; some members anyway. Perhaps this means that some have more intelligence than a 5 lb bag of store brand cheese doodles. (2.27kg)

Sarkozy is eager for the new deal among the EuroCrats to be implemented. However, Angela Merkel wants to drag the process out—still unrepentant. Desolé. Remember what I said before? “…if it is implemented…”

Chancellor Merkel embraces the pretext of seeking consensus. Mind you, the inability to seek consensus in any reasonable time-frame is almost impossible. That is one of the causes of the problem in the first place.

Chancellor Merkel is concerned that non-Euro members don’t feel marginalised. This is the EuroZone—not a Nursery School. I am only going to imagine The Chancellor has been schooled by experts in American Marketing Strategies in advance of her attending

the meeting with President Obama.  “Oh, yes, Mr. President.  I don’t want the other nations to feel marginalised and low self-esteem.”

Thank you, Angela Merkel.

Now, what has brought Germany around to everyone else’s way of thinking? Is it the fact that the EuroZone is on the Brink of Disaster? No. It is the fact that the disaster is now washing up onto German Shores. That woke the DeutscheCrats real fast. Now maybe they will ask Chancellor Merkel to resign.


The euphemism has not effected Europe alone. The Wall Street Journal says “Berlin” when in means “Merkel”.

Monti takes over Italy. Borrowing costs rise. People blame Monti and not the 50% discount Merkel granted to Bond investors.

Of course, no disaster would be complete without the Economists.

Economists say the ECB can do more legally. Okay. We agree.

“But wait, there’s more.”

Economists have said:

Large Bond buys by the U.S. Federal Reserve and The Bank of England haven’t eroded their political independence. Here goes:

U.S. Federal Reserve. Operative Word(s): U.S.

The Bank of England. Operative Word: England.

The ECB. Operative Word: European.

If I caught that, everyone caught that. Why bother engaging in the pretext, pretense, and, well, academic flummery? You may be correct. However, how will we know?

“But wait, there’s more.”

“ECB loath to take actions that could spark a political backlash against it in Germany, the Euro’s most powerful member.” Maybe too powerful, eh?

New EuroPact Idea: Ask Merkel to leave office or ask Germany to leave the EuroUnion.

“Nothing for nothing,” as my Mom used to say. In other words, “The Price of Germany is too high a Price for German Participation.

If the EuroCrats threaten to kick Germany out, what are they going to do? Take their ball and go join another EuroUnion? Can I seriously suggest that? No; but the EuroCrats can—and should. What would that cause? Don’t worry. It won’t get that far. Germany will ask Chancellor Merkel to step down and go home. Nicely, of course.


The best part of all this is the question, why is Germany willing to work with the ROE? (Rest of Europe) Because the Crisis Hit Berlin.

Papandreou stepped down.

Berlusconi stepped down.

Now, perhaps, it is time for Merkel to step down.

The headline: Time Runs Short for Solution to EuroCrisis. Someone tell Chancellor Merkel…after time runs out!


Sincerely,

Slim


mailto:slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview



They refused to do what was necessary.

CHINA Hostile or Expedient?

China has an army.  Over the years estimates have ranged from 100 million soldiers to 250 million soldiers.  This is not a public jobs programme.  However, this may not be for attacking other nations.  This army may be for civil defence and preserving civilian order in a time of crisis.  Why?

Take a look at a recent news item.  A cyber attack on a Springfield, Ill. public water utility resulted in the destruction of one of its pumps, according to a security expert.

Experts reported that several ip numbers on the computers files originated in Russia.  This is not an accusation by the Security Forces.  Hacking may well have been the activity of a teenager somewhere in the US or anywhere else in the world.  Consideration was also given to the possibility that this was a "test run".

However, the most telling statement was that the facility computers were not designed for security.  That speaks volumes.  Our schools are not designed for security. Our airports were not designed for security.  All were designed on the assumption of civility.  The civility that existed then.  That was then. This is now.  Back to China.

Throughout China, people are capable of surviving on rice and burning candles for light.  A bicycle is adequate transportation.  Then there are the big cities.

The Large Military, despite all the marching in formation, more likely is being prepared to keep cities functioning and the population fed in the event of a global crisis.  Food, Water, Fuel.

Now the question is why?  Is it the old Slim Fairview canard, "It's better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it?"  China, with 6,000 years of history and the revered wisdom of the wise throughout their history, has NOT been waiting for me to come along.

In the event of a technological cataclysm, China is better prepared to endure greater hardships for greater lengths of time than people in the West.  They are quite prepared to return to "analogue" until "digital" returns. 

Are we as prepared?

We are trying to bolster security.  We may have "disaster control" however, how well prepared are we to live in a powered-down society?

Now, if you will excuse me, I must trim the lampe wickes.

Sincerely,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Political Math

Dems Control the House & the Senate + Jimmy Carter (D) = Ronald Reagan

Dems Control the House & the Senate + Bill Clinton (D) = GOP takeover of Congress.

Dems Control the House & the Senate + Barack Obama (D) = Tea Party takeover of House

But wait, There's More!

Dems Control the House & the Senate + LBJ (D) = Richard Nixon

Dems Control the House & the Senate + Truman (D) = Eisenhower + GOP Congress

Source: http://www.dflorig.com/partycontrol.htm

Regards,

Slim

ɡrɛkoʊˈroʊmən

Finally, Good news is beginning to filtre out of the EuroCrisis.

Both Greece and Italy have chosen leaders. (You can't lead if you can't manage and politicians cannot manage.)

The leaders, in opposition to political wisdom but consistent with conventional wisdom, are technocrats.  Technocrat is a polite way of saying, someone with the ability to think.

There was a time when the empirical method was in full fury.  Run the test. Record the results. Repeat the test. Duplicate the results. Draw your conclusion.

Then, The US became infected with a Passion for Opinions. Express an opinion. Seek data to validate your opinion. Bask in the admiration of others.

For months I have been chiding the EuroCrats to understand some basics:  You cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution.  Finally, now that Greece is on the brink of failure and Italy is on the brink of catastrophe, people are starting to talk about growth. 

The EuroCrats figured out that clichés, slogans, and platitudes don't solve problems.

There has been a fixation with austerity--yes a necessity.  However, austerity without provisions for investment, economic development projects, and growth, is no solution.

There was another proposal.  Forcing investors to take a 50% loss. (Half a loaf is better than none.)  Investors don't invest money to mitigate losses. They make money to make a profit.

Then there was the Ponzi Scheme.  Go to China for investors.  Go to Brazil for investors.  Go to the Petrostates for investors.  That is a Ponzi Scheme.  I don't hear that being talked about anymore.  Not since I said as much on my blog and on Twitter.

Still, even as Greece and Italy are moving in the right direction, Chancellor Merkel is still working to be an impediment.

From USA Today:

Germany's Chancellor Angel Merkel told reporters in Berlin "it is very important ... that Italy wins back its credibility."

"That means the austerity package being implemented very quickly, as is now the plan, and above all the political leadership being clarified as quickly as possible -- because I think that is very important for Italy's credibility," Merkel said.

Chancellor Merkel seems incapable of celebrating the good news.  Greece and Italy are moving toward economic development and are taking responsible action by elevating those to leadership who are qualified, capable, realistic, practical, and I will stop here before I dig myself into an even deeper hole. 

Still, I am most optimistic.  And I believe I should be optimistic.  Why?  Because I am going to take some credit for what is going on.  Someone must have been reading the monographs on my blog and my tweets on Twitter, because what they are doing is what I've been saying they should be doing.  In addition, I heard no one saying what is being said until I started saying it.

The EuroCrats were clutching to a procedure for solving problems that failed repeatedly.

What did you do?
Did it work?
No?
Don't do that!

Papandreou resigned.  Berlusconi resigned.  Perhaps Chancellor Merkel will heed my admonition to "follow the path of the trajectory."  I am not necessarily saying Merkel resign in favour of, say, Wolfgang Schäuble. However, I am suggesting that Chancellor Merkel acknowledge that while austerity is necessary, it is ineffective and ineffectual without Economic Development and Growth.

Sincerely,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

The Path of the Trajectory

Slimviews:  Commentary on Global Political and Economic Events by Slim Fairview.  Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a month or two. Slim

Perhaps I should not call it commentary.

"Everybody knows what everybody knows."  Slim Fairview [From The Quotations of Slim Fairview/ Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview]

But I digress:

The latest reports out are that back in the mists of time, the fact that Greek debt was higher than reported and that prognosticators were saying this could lead to a default at some time in the future, were met with vehement denials and great acrimony.

"You show me disrespect. I got empowerment and dignity. I got an entitlement. Gimme something." [sic]

"Positive reinforcement of negative behaviour is a disincentive to improve." Slim Faiview.  The time for stern measures was then.  The EuroCrats failed.  They were bullied. 

Now that disaster has befallen Greece, Europe, Asia, The World, The EuroCrats are attempting to save face by taking stern measures. 

Ineffective, ineffectual, but stern.  And, too, they are clutching retentively to their ideologies like a two year old with his hands down his nappy.


You cannot have a solution that does not include economic development.

You cannot have a solution that does not increase the middle-class.

"The rise or fall of the middle class is a leading indicator of a nations future." [Success or Failure]  The Quotations of Slim Fairview.

Still, the EuroCrats will not budge.  This may be trite but it is true:  They are rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Papandreou was to resign.  Markets up.  Denial. Markets down.  Agreement to resign, Markets up. 

"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."  Santayana.

"Those who never learned history are doomed--period!"  Slim Fairview

Berlusconi to resign.  Markets up.  Denial. Market down.  When  € 500 billion, tell you to go, you go.  However, first there must be talk. Rumours. Denials. Pledges. Indignation. (Righteous or otherwise.) Accusations. Recriminations. Finally, a Sanctimonious Submitting of his Resignation--with deep regret.  And a nasty insinuation about his critics and the opposition.  I apologise if this seems harsh.  However, we've seen it before--all too often.

Meanwhile, the Greek Parliament (Critical of the US) is emulating the US Congress in handling serious debt crisis matters.  To assuage their bruised egos, the EuroCrats are comparing themselves (Contrasting) favourably to the US.  That must offer some satisfaction.  No solutions but some satisfaction nonetheless.

The only new visions the EuroCrats have embraced is to move from a failed policy and procedure of pursuing austerity with celerity and no mechanism for growth (rather stifling growth) and repeated larger doses of a medication that harms more than it hurts the patient.

There are some people who, when confronted by the consequences of their actions, will coagulate like white corpuscles to defend the body against the medication designed to heal the illness.” –Slim Fairview  

That is what the EuroCrats are doing.  Fighting the medication that will heal the illness.

The next step the EuroCrats are in the midst of taking:  A Ponzi Scheme.  Now that investors have lost half their investment, the EuroCrats are going to China for investors; to Brazil for investors; to the Petrostates for investors.  Call it what you will.  Define it any way you choose.  This is a Ponzi Scheme.

 If you are not laughing I will assume you understand the severity of the situation.

Instead of describing my blog as Commentary, let me say that it is more prescriptive than descriptive.  But don't bother listening to me.  Everybody always doesn't listen to me.


Bon chance.

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

My Comment on The New York Times On Line.

http://community.nytimes.com/comments/www.nytimes.com/2011/11/05/world/europe/italy-agrees-to-imf-oversight.html?permid=46#comment46


Copyright (c) Slim Fairview