ɡrɛkoʊˈroʊmən

Finally, Good news is beginning to filtre out of the EuroCrisis.

Both Greece and Italy have chosen leaders. (You can't lead if you can't manage and politicians cannot manage.)

The leaders, in opposition to political wisdom but consistent with conventional wisdom, are technocrats.  Technocrat is a polite way of saying, someone with the ability to think.

There was a time when the empirical method was in full fury.  Run the test. Record the results. Repeat the test. Duplicate the results. Draw your conclusion.

Then, The US became infected with a Passion for Opinions. Express an opinion. Seek data to validate your opinion. Bask in the admiration of others.

For months I have been chiding the EuroCrats to understand some basics:  You cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution.  Finally, now that Greece is on the brink of failure and Italy is on the brink of catastrophe, people are starting to talk about growth. 

The EuroCrats figured out that clichés, slogans, and platitudes don't solve problems.

There has been a fixation with austerity--yes a necessity.  However, austerity without provisions for investment, economic development projects, and growth, is no solution.

There was another proposal.  Forcing investors to take a 50% loss. (Half a loaf is better than none.)  Investors don't invest money to mitigate losses. They make money to make a profit.

Then there was the Ponzi Scheme.  Go to China for investors.  Go to Brazil for investors.  Go to the Petrostates for investors.  That is a Ponzi Scheme.  I don't hear that being talked about anymore.  Not since I said as much on my blog and on Twitter.

Still, even as Greece and Italy are moving in the right direction, Chancellor Merkel is still working to be an impediment.

From USA Today:

Germany's Chancellor Angel Merkel told reporters in Berlin "it is very important ... that Italy wins back its credibility."

"That means the austerity package being implemented very quickly, as is now the plan, and above all the political leadership being clarified as quickly as possible -- because I think that is very important for Italy's credibility," Merkel said.

Chancellor Merkel seems incapable of celebrating the good news.  Greece and Italy are moving toward economic development and are taking responsible action by elevating those to leadership who are qualified, capable, realistic, practical, and I will stop here before I dig myself into an even deeper hole. 

Still, I am most optimistic.  And I believe I should be optimistic.  Why?  Because I am going to take some credit for what is going on.  Someone must have been reading the monographs on my blog and my tweets on Twitter, because what they are doing is what I've been saying they should be doing.  In addition, I heard no one saying what is being said until I started saying it.

The EuroCrats were clutching to a procedure for solving problems that failed repeatedly.

What did you do?
Did it work?
No?
Don't do that!

Papandreou resigned.  Berlusconi resigned.  Perhaps Chancellor Merkel will heed my admonition to "follow the path of the trajectory."  I am not necessarily saying Merkel resign in favour of, say, Wolfgang Schäuble. However, I am suggesting that Chancellor Merkel acknowledge that while austerity is necessary, it is ineffective and ineffectual without Economic Development and Growth.

Sincerely,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Slim Was Right EuroCrats Were Wrong

Cheers and Skepticism Greet EuroDeal.  They always do.  The Elation over a deal, the Deflation over the details.  Plus ca change...

The Headline in the WSJ:  "Will it Work."  Well, does it ever?  No? 

Another quote from a EuroCrat was very disturbing. Very.  "The implementation challenge is higher than  the design challenge."

Translation.  It was easy to come up with a plan.  Implementing the plan will be difficult.

Why?

For one reason, there are few details.  There are always "few details."  Why?  Because there are no details. 

How can you implement a plan if you don't know what you are supposed to do?  Yet, the process goes on.  And that word keeps cropping up.  Process.  This is a process problem.

Herein, I am validated.  Again.  Repeatedly.

"Analysts saw lack of measures to boost economic growth as an Achilles Heel."

How often must I say it?

Cut Wages, fire people, increase property taxes--that is not a plan. That is not a project.  That has not worked. That cannot work without an Economic Development Strategy.  A polite way to say projects.  I referenced that several times. It is on my monograph about China's success.  I won't put the link here.  Google it.

The next disturbing statement: Governments don't know if investors will respond well to the "Insurance Plan."  Already the news on that matter is not good. "Default insurance market takes hit."  I am guessing no one saw that coming.  "There are no unintended consequences, only unwanted consequences."  Slim Fairview

EuroPlan.  Try it and HOPE it works.  That is a plan.  That is not a project.  EuroCrats need to think in terms of Projects not Plans.

The Beefed UP bailout Fund has a critical flaw.  Beef up the fund and hope this would be enough to help out OTHER debtor nations.  Did this help Greece?  No?  You need a new and/or expanded approach. 

The Next Move:  New Fund Plan.  Go to Asia for Investors.  Go to Brazil for Investors.  Go to PetroStates for Investors.  This is not, I repeat NOT a strategy to resolve the EuroCrisis:

THIS IS A PONZI SCHEME. How far down the line do the EuroCrats intend to take this strategy?

Quote from a Greek Citizen:  "Greek people are ashamed and angry."  To the Greek Government.  The People are Angry.  The People are Rioting.  Witness the Path of the Trajectory.

To the EuroCrats:

"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."  Santayana.
"Those who never learned history are doomed--period!"  Slim Fairview

The problem with the EuroCrats?  They cannot see the present.

"That you cannot predict the future is not the proper rebuff to the person who tells you to get off the tracks because a train is coming.  In this case, "the" train is coming. 

History is approaching quickly and you cannot see it.  The EuroCrats are like the man who drives into a tunnel, sees two headlights approaching, and says, "I'll just drive between those two motor cycles."  Hey, Guys.  I borrowed that joke from Bozo the Clown.  It seems not to be a joke, now.

There are more than enough monographs on my blog to point you in the right direction. 
http://slimviews.blogspot.com


Bon Chance!


Regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com


THE HEADLINE:  SLIM WAS RIGHT THE EUROCRATS WERE WRONG

Well, not yet.  However, follow the progression of the tag lines:

Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a month or two.
Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a week or two.
Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a day or two.
Read my blog today, or read it in the Wall Street Journal tomorrow.

Then again, Don't bother asking me.  Everyone always doesn't ask me.


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview.

EuroUnion: An Uncivil Union

The EuroUnion will go nowhere without an Economic Development Project.  And, Europe needs both Management and Leadership.

You can't lead if you can't manage.  And the EuroCrats CANNOT manage.

One reason the EuroCrats fail is because no one has confidence in anyone.  Why would they? 

Why would anyone feel confident in the EuroCrats, Merkel at the fore, who have devised a plan, implemented the plan, and presided gallantly over the plan that has perpetuated the decline?

Who, really, has confidence in Angela Merkel?  Who?  Why?  Answer: Because she is rich.

Here is the folksy analogy.

Hey, everyone, Rich Aunt Angela is coming to dinner.  Let's spend more than we can afford and eat less than we need, to curry favour with the Rich Aunt who criticises us for wasting money on frivolity and not eating well.

You cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes and call it a solution.

You cannot approve a bailout on the assumption of growth in Greece, then impose sanctions to punish Greece because your assumptions were wrong and call yourself a leader.  You are not a leader.  And you certainly are not a manager.  You are a failure.  A failure.

Reduce the number of attendees.
Stop sitting in a circle behind flags.
Face the blackboard.
Don't ask questions.
Through question and answer, quest 4 the truth.
Eliminate known failures.
Seek not consensus--seek acknowledgement.

To lift a line from our Founding Fathers:  "We hold these truths to be self-evident."

"It may be a Universal Condition:  We refuse to acknowledge that all alliances and enmities are transitory."  The Quotations of Slim Fairview.  However, The EuroCrats must accept that the Zero-Sum Game is no longer viable. That is the nexus of my ppt. presentation "The Future of the G 20 in Good Times and Bad."  If you watch Cannes, however, you will see my prediction come true.  Nothing will come out of it.

I had had hopes when I read the statement by Wolfgang Schauble adding two more elements to the EuroPlan.

Provisions for Economic Development. (Growth)
Management of the EuroUnion.

It seems neither will come about any time soon. In other words, why bother making the effort to put the umlaut (ä) when writing his name when he will prove to be as big a disappointment as Chancellor Merkel?

It is time for Angela Merkel to step down or for the Germany to leave the EuroUnion.


Bon Chance.

Slim


slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview