Showing posts with label alternative energy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label alternative energy. Show all posts
Monday, March 20, 2017
Oil: Speculation or Calculation?
It would seem that we undervalue the influence of speculation.
Why increase production unless you have a reasonable expectation of a growth curve?
You know that increasing supply with the expectation of oversupply and declining demand as a result of a slowing global economy will drive prices down.
Expert analysts had to have known that Saudi Arabia would act to protect revenue. And that protection played out by Saudi Arabia pumping oil.
In addition, in "Energy Independence" I pointed out that if we no longer buy Saudi Arabian oil, we will no longer be customers. And by extension, we will no longer be friends. At best, we will have an expedient relationship. I also pointed out that Saudi Arabian officials will be talking to Chinese officials. They are.
The only reasonable interpretation goes to motive.
The motive?
Flood the market, drive down prices, and drive competitors out of business. Then buy up their assets at bargain prices.
Add to this the propensity to speculate on price fluctuations must in some manner add to the price fluctuations.
Just saying.
Regards,
Slim.
slimfairview@yahoo.com
rpa@Georgetown.edu
Copyright (c) 2017 Bob Asken
All rights reserved.
Friday, September 23, 2011
The US: Oil, Energy, Housing
US: Oil, Energy, Housing
The Economy has now achieved the mystic quality of the weather: Everyone talks about it. No one can do anything about it. We prepare for disaster. We plan for cleanup. We ride the storm—many lose everything.
The Economy is not the Weather.
“We are going to maximize the impact of our recue fund by leveraging our resources.” [A quote from a EuroCrat published in the WSJ.]
“Having lost sight of our objective we will redouble our efforts.” (My Finance Professor)
“A stitch in time saves nine.” Unknown
You cannot create a plan and sell a plan based on clichés, slogans, and platitudes.
My plan for housing:
The bank stops the foreclosure and rewrites the mortgage with affordable payments which include a balloon payment down the road; for example 2018.
The dead wood comes off the books. The revenue stream continues. The asset stops deteriorating. The bank has money to lend. The municipality maintains a revenue stream. The population decline is abated.
You think my mortgage plan won’t work, eh? Well, “BofA reaches deal to sell….” WSJ: 9/23 C3. Google it, it builds character.
Oil and Energy
The other day, referencing Solyndra, I stated, “Money will not replace management.”
Big Oil buys Solyndra—a metaphor. Big Oil invests in Green Energy, or Clean Energy. What happens? Big Oil avoids the disaster it suffered from its misalliance with Big Auto.
Big Oil and Big Auto were once very cozy. Times change. People began to demand smaller, fuel efficient cars. (Less oil) People began to demand electric cars. (Less oil) Big Auto said, “It’s us or them.” Well, General Strategy said, “Make smaller cars. Develop electric cars.” The rest is History.
Soon, Big Oil will find that General Energy will betray them as well. To Big Oil: You are no John D.
What to do?
Well, the big understanding is “demand.” Okay, here goes. Let’s look at demand.
Plastic Trash Bags (I heard they are bio-degradable now.) Food Containers: “Don’t get mad, get—“I promise not to lose this food container.”
Why the quote, the commercial. Because this is what America buys—Petroleum By-products. (True, soon gasoline will be the by-product, but I digress.)
The demand is there. The demand for energy is there also: residential energy, commercial energy. Thus, I propose a multi-pronged solution.
Big Oil buys Solyndra and runs it as a business and not as a symbolic gesture—an homage to the environment. In plain English: Stop Calling it the Solar Energy Market and start calling it The Energy Market. With an efficient, cost-effective means of production with a built in demand from manufacturing petroleum by-products, you will make it, sell it, and use it to make and products from your own raw material.
Big Oil Provides Green Energy to plants manufacturing Green(ish) products.
R&D expands into plastics. (Remember The Graduate? Then it was Social Commentary. Now it is Economic Strategy.)
Use your Lobby Muscle for tax incentives for
a. Producers and
b. Consumers.
Sincerest regards,
Slim
Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview
The Economy has now achieved the mystic quality of the weather: Everyone talks about it. No one can do anything about it. We prepare for disaster. We plan for cleanup. We ride the storm—many lose everything.
The Economy is not the Weather.
“We are going to maximize the impact of our recue fund by leveraging our resources.” [A quote from a EuroCrat published in the WSJ.]
“Having lost sight of our objective we will redouble our efforts.” (My Finance Professor)
“A stitch in time saves nine.” Unknown
You cannot create a plan and sell a plan based on clichés, slogans, and platitudes.
My plan for housing:
The bank stops the foreclosure and rewrites the mortgage with affordable payments which include a balloon payment down the road; for example 2018.
The dead wood comes off the books. The revenue stream continues. The asset stops deteriorating. The bank has money to lend. The municipality maintains a revenue stream. The population decline is abated.
You think my mortgage plan won’t work, eh? Well, “BofA reaches deal to sell….” WSJ: 9/23 C3. Google it, it builds character.
Oil and Energy
The other day, referencing Solyndra, I stated, “Money will not replace management.”
Big Oil buys Solyndra—a metaphor. Big Oil invests in Green Energy, or Clean Energy. What happens? Big Oil avoids the disaster it suffered from its misalliance with Big Auto.
Big Oil and Big Auto were once very cozy. Times change. People began to demand smaller, fuel efficient cars. (Less oil) People began to demand electric cars. (Less oil) Big Auto said, “It’s us or them.” Well, General Strategy said, “Make smaller cars. Develop electric cars.” The rest is History.
Soon, Big Oil will find that General Energy will betray them as well. To Big Oil: You are no John D.
What to do?
Well, the big understanding is “demand.” Okay, here goes. Let’s look at demand.
Plastic Trash Bags (I heard they are bio-degradable now.) Food Containers: “Don’t get mad, get—“I promise not to lose this food container.”
Why the quote, the commercial. Because this is what America buys—Petroleum By-products. (True, soon gasoline will be the by-product, but I digress.)
The demand is there. The demand for energy is there also: residential energy, commercial energy. Thus, I propose a multi-pronged solution.
Big Oil buys Solyndra and runs it as a business and not as a symbolic gesture—an homage to the environment. In plain English: Stop Calling it the Solar Energy Market and start calling it The Energy Market. With an efficient, cost-effective means of production with a built in demand from manufacturing petroleum by-products, you will make it, sell it, and use it to make and products from your own raw material.
Big Oil Provides Green Energy to plants manufacturing Green(ish) products.
R&D expands into plastics. (Remember The Graduate? Then it was Social Commentary. Now it is Economic Strategy.)
Use your Lobby Muscle for tax incentives for
a. Producers and
b. Consumers.
Sincerest regards,
Slim
Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Memo to Big Oil
Memo to Big Oil
Diversify your perspective.
Here is the metaphor:
If people think that the Moon is made of green cheese, then Galileo didn’t explain things properly. The solution is not to explain things to the people. The solution is to explain things to Galileo.
For years, Urban Legend has been saying that the Big Oil is impeding the efforts to develop high mileage automobiles and alternative energy sources. This does not mean that Big Oil did these things. However, if this is the perception there will be a big pushback.
The solution is not to explain things to the people. The solution is to explain things to Big Oil.
To begin with, do not say, “Slim, telling us what we should have done is 20/20 hindsight.”
It is. Don’t waste time saying it. Not because you are enlightening anyone, but because you are deluding yourself.
Why is this?
Because I will say, “Now that you have 20/20 hindsight, your mistakes should be a guidepost not a hitching post.”
Your strategic planning failures of the past do not excuse your strategic planning failures for the future.
Here is a four-point plan to guide your strategic planning.
1. Invest your profits in high-mileage technology.
Why?
Because as it becomes increasingly more important, you will hold the patents. Intellectual property has value.
2. Invest in active solar power technology.
Why?
Because you will become the energy suppliers of the future.
3. Invest in electric filling station technology.
Why?
Because having gas stations all over the country, you can leverage your capital investment. This is called revenue enhancement.
4. Invest in the geothermal heating industry.
Why?
Because diversity in your portfolio and revenue enhancement are vital to continued growth.
Bon chance!
Sincerest regards,
Slim
If you find any of this information helpful, please feel free to send me on of those tricked out Apple laptops—and do please include a little WAM in the envelope along with the thank-you note.
I don’t want to be paid for what I do.
I don’t want to be paid for what I know.
I don’t want to be paid for what I think.
I want to be paid for the way I think.
Regards,
Slim
Mail: slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview
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