Showing posts with label European economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label European economy. Show all posts

Monday, August 22, 2011

EuroCrisis: Hocus Pocus--Focus!



Instead of relying on the unending stream of bad news to comment upon, I took some time to read some of the articles being written about the EuroCrisis.  I’m not sorry I did.

The EuroCrats are discussing solutions.  They are focusing on the unpopular solutions.  We used to believe that if medicine tasted bad, it was good for you.  Now we believe that the unpopular solution is always the best solution. 

The solution that no one likes is imposing sanctions on nations that do not improve their circumstances after receiving a bailout.

Your economy was in bad shape.  We gave you money to pay your national debts.  That was to help you while your economy improved.  Your economy did not improve.  Now we are going to punish you.  We are going to do this to help you. 

Some things require no additional comment.  The above paragraph is an example of that.

Another solution on the table is to create another layer of bureaucracy.  This is the toothless watchdog.  You feed the dog, walk the dog, listen to the dog bark, and blame the dog when your home is burgled.  My cat came up with that analogy.  Self-serving?  Yes.  Valid none-the-less.

The EuroNations currently staggering downhill economically do not need governance.  They need leadership.  Moreover, however, the leaders are in need of leadership.  All we have now is gratuitous management.

What has caused this flurry of activity?  I am embarrassed to say this.  Analysts.  Why am I embarrassed to say this?  I admittedly have only two skills.  An analytical mind and the ability to speak in metaphors.

Analysts are predicting the recession in Greece will continue.  They are basing their predictions on the fact that their assumptions failed to materialise.

Here is what happened.  The € 110 Billion Bailout to Greece was apparently predicated on the assumption that growth would return to Greece after some austere fiscal and economic changes.  When growth failed to arrive (Deus ex machina, I assume. Or Deus non machina for that matter.), the analysts predicted that the recession would continue.  Apparently, the Analysts never read Horace’s Ars Poetica.  Now, I never read it either. Still, here is the analogy.
Instead of putting 10% of your income into your retirement fund each year, I want you to put 5% of your income into your retirement fund each year.  This based on the assumption that your rate of return is going to double.

Instead of crunching the numbers, grasp the concept.

Thus far, there seems to be no solution.  There is no short-term solution to the problem.  There is no long-term solution to the problem.  What we do have, however, are steps being taken in the hopes that things will get better. 

This, we do, by calling the people trying to solve the problems, experts.

“Early to bed and early to rise, does not make you Ben Franklin.”—Slim Fairview

What is most startling about this situation is that there is little discussion about projects.  Cutting spending to the bone certainly gives the appearance of a better financial position.  It gives you the feeling of being in better financial shape.

You can also improve your circumstances by focusing on increasing the revenue.


Now, as I said elsewhere:


If you are unemployed, a government job is a job.

If you are an economist, a government job is a transfer payment.


However, we need a scapegoat.  There is, after all, a global economic crisis.  What happened?  Let’s blame it on John Maynard Keynes.  John Maynard Keynes may have as much to do with the problem as Maynard G. Krebs, but it will give us the opportunity to sell new ideas.

This in analogous to the decline in reading skills in the United States. 

With no evidence to suggest that Phonics caused the decline in reading scores, we began down the path of coming up with new and better ways to teach reading.  Each new way of teaching reading was embraced to solve the problem of declining test scores caused by the previous solution.  Ultimately, we blamed the test.  When that didn’t work, we began to demand testing the teacher.  The only ones who benefited were the ones who wrote and sold books explaining the new and better way of teaching youngsters to read.

The only people who got rich from Get Rich Quick books were the people who wrote them.  The only people who felt better from Self-Help Books were the people who made money writing them.

Thus it is with the EuroCrisis.  Everyone is in the same situation, it would seem.  Everyone has a solution.  The only people benefiting from the solutions, however, are the experts who make money selling their theories to the EuroCrats.

I once said in jest, “Put me in charge.  I can do just as bad a job, but I can come up with much better excuses.” Now I will say it not in jest.  "Put me in charge.  I can do just as bad a job, but I can come up with better excuses."

Let’s be honest, isn’t the feel-good course of action the one that helps us to show everyone that it was someone else’s fault.

Sincerest regards,


Slim


PS.  I am not Paul Harvey.  However, I am open to becoming a paid commentator, columnist, or blogger. If you’ve found anything I said to be helpful, please don’t hesitate to send me one of those tricked-out laptops and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.


Sincerely

Slim

RR #2
Route 390
Cresco, PA 18326



Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

Friday, August 19, 2011

EuroCrisis Analogy



You and your two sisters have been asking your parents for an allowance.

They have resisted.  They have explained that you are not responsible.  However, they will discuss it privately.

A few days later, they call you and your two sisters to a meeting.  They announce that they will give you an allowance.  There are three conditions:

1.  You save some.

2.  You spend some.

3.  You give some to the less fortunate.

You all agree.  Happily.

You ask, “How much to we get?”

Your Dad explains. 

“Your Mom and I are putting all the money into a shoebox.  You may each take your allowance from there.”


Your one sister takes money out to buy two blouses.  She puts $10.00 in her Piggy Bank.

Your other sister takes money out to buy one blouse.  She puts $5.00 in her Piggy Bank.

You go to the shoebox and find only $3.00 left.  You complain to your parents.

Your parents tell you to, “put $1.00 in your Piggy Bank, give $1.00 to the poor, and to spend $1.00 on yourself.”


Now do you understand why the EuroCrisis has not been solved?


Sincerely,


Slim

PS.

I am not Paul Harvey.  However, I am open to becoming a paid commentator, columnist, or blogger.

If you’ve found anything I said to be helpful, please don’t hesitate to send me one of those tricked-out laptops and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.


Sincerest regards,

Slim




Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview




Thursday, July 21, 2011

European Union: Less a Fraternity more a Tontine

The problem the EuroCrats are having arises from the fact that they are dealing with problems on a propter hoc basis.

True, Greece needs help with its debt. However, while the EuroCrats have become fixated on Greece, they are ignoring the problems of Ireland, Italy, Spain, et. al.

When other countries like Ireland begin to reach the state Greece is in, the EuroFolk may try to heal Ireland's malady with Greek medication. This does not always work.

The analogy: Any woman who ever had children can tell you, when one gets sick, they all get sick. Then, they give whatever it is back to the one they caught it from in the first place.

EuroFlu is no different.

No sooner than Greece gets well, than Ireland will need help. Or Italy.

Then there are the issues of incompatible medications and competing physicians. As I've read in the news, only recently have Germany and France formed a compact. EuroBankers have contradicted EuroCrats, Analysts have argue with both and each other.

The solution must involve all the nations. The solution to one country's problems may not work for another.  However, the solving of one nation's problems must not cause problems for another nor make it impossible for the other country to move forward.

The EuroCratic approach is beginning to appear less like a fraternity and more like a tontine.

Regards,

Slim



slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Friday, July 8, 2011

The EuroVisioning Process: Shared Visions or Divisions

As I've been following the EuroCrats, a few questions have come to mind.

Is there no SOP?

Is there no metaphorical algorithm?


There are cause and effect relationships in economics.

There seems to be one of two possibilities.


That actions in one country (or agency, e.g. The EuroBank) will have an effect on another country's economy, those actions will either hurt or help the other country's economy.


If such actions are helpful, they should be taken.

If such actions are not helpful, then this EuroTopian vision won't work because the policies to benefit two countries are mutually exclusive.

Does no one have a pencil and a piece of paper?


Regards,

Slim


slimfairview@yahoo.com 


Copyright (c) 2011  Slim Fairview

The EuroVisioning Process: Shared Visions or Divsions

As I've been following the EuroCrats, a few questions have come to mind.

Is there no SOP?

Is there no metaphorical algorithm?

There are cause and effect relationships in economics.

There seems to be one of two possibilities.

That actions in one country (or agency, e.g. The EuroBank) will have an effect on another country's economy we can expect the following:

That those actions will either hurt or help the other country's economy.

If such actions are helpful, they should be taken.

If such actions are not helpful, then this EuroTopian vision won't work because the policies to benefit two countries are mutually exclusive.

Does no one have a pencil and a piece of paper?

Regards,

Slim

Slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011  Slim Fairview

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Don't be so EuroCratic

Will Europe Survive its Efforts to Survive?

The EuroProcess seems to be one that stopped in midstream.  The grand Eurotopian Vision. (If you can believe the stuff you read in the Wall Street Journal, or the people they quote.)

The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.  Apparently not.  The Euro is a concept based on the goal that Europe would function as a single economy. Op. Cit, The US.  50 states, one currency.  I presume that the intention was a single government, a single currency:  all are one and attuned to the spheres.

As Yogi Berra once said, "In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is."  You can promote unity or you can promote diversity, but you can't do both.

There is no recipe for Stone Soup and no one is interested in eating it, anyway.
My interest is self-serving.  When I watch channel 13 I want to hear people saying things, like two and six, tuppence, and a fiver ( five pound note.)

For Europe to survive, as in the individual member nations to do well, there will have to be a re-scripting.  Preferably without the one who wrote the treatment for the disaster they face today.

Recognise the separate countries, recognise the separate economies with their respective industries, strengths and weaknesses, assets and liabilities, see what each country needs to fix its problems; see what assistance each country can offer those who have problems [preferably without creating new ones for themselves or others.] and begin to (herein lies the rub) negotiate in good faith with one another.

Speaking in the vernacular of an American:  Everybody's gotta get somethin'.

Some EuroCrats give the appearance of being able to contribute.  I will suggest Chancellor Merkel, Madame Lagarde, and some guy from one of the EuroBanks who said something sensible in a WSJ article.  However, there is a need for some outside objectivity.

Marketing:  Find a Need and Fill It.

Job Opening:  Analyst to assist EuroCrats in their effort to clean up their mess.

Responsibilities:  Too many

Compensation:    Not enough

Satisfaction:         Fleeting

To apply:  Don't bother, They don't want to hear your opinion, they want to hear their opinion.

Regards,


Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview