The impending disaster that awaits: The Control and Allocation of Resources.
The way these are handled is vital. It will determine more than the future direction of the Global Economy. It will determine whether or not there is one.
What to Expect in the Future--If there is one?
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/07/what-to-expect-in-future-if-there-is.html
To the EuroCrats, The G 20, et. al.
The OWS (Occupy Wall Street) Movement
The Greek Riots. (Yes, riots!)
The Arab Spring. (You call it the Arab Spring; I call it the Path of the Trajectory.)
The Future: What About the Path of the Trajectory?
As we plan into the future, are we considering the path of the trajectory?
Case in point. The pendulum swings both ways. The farther it swings one way, the farther it swings back.
Globalisation: Will the path of globalisation eventually lead to a path of isolationism?
Information: Will the information that we are relying upon so heavily, eventually become a curse that will lead people to retrench? An information overload can make the information virtually worthless if too much information cannot be accepted as reliable?
Technology: Will the technology that enhances our efforts become so "intrusive" that we are paralysed by its intrusiveness?
Politics: Will the politics of globalisation lead to "Superpower Centers" with a detente between e.g: The Asian Center, The African Center, The Middle Eastern Center, The European Center, The Latin American Center, the North American Center?
Wake up and smell the Starbucks Triple-Shot Cappuccino Venti. (Extra foamy? Your choice.)
The Resources
Food
Water
Pharmaceuticals
Energy
Technology
Information
Validation
Different Global Regions and Spheres of Influence have or will have varying degrees of Control and Methods and means of Allocation. Understanding this is Crucial.
Spheres
Asia
America
Africa
Europe
Latin America
The issue is more than a question of Supply and Demand. Trust me. On the matter of resources you have:
The Quantity
The Quality
These will be interjected between the Supply and the Demand: Between Control and Allocation.
Unfortunately, if these are not pressing issues now, they will be when it is too late to do anything about it. However, Pollyanna said I should give it the Old College Try.
As the G 20 prepares to meet, they will be seeking propter hoc solutions to the pressing issues dujour:
The Increasing EuroDebt
The Declining EuroZone Economy
The Declining Global Economy
Micro and Macro Economics
Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Investment and Banking Strategies.
Désolé
Over the past several months, I've been blogging on the problems and the solutions of the EuroCrisis and the Greek Debt Crisis. I thought, for a moment, I might have made some progress enlightening the EuroCrats"
What did you do?
Did it work?
No?
Don't do that!
Still, after two years of continuous and continual failures, the EuroCrats are still clutching retentively to their ideologies, even as the world around them is changing. Oops! It did it again.
There are more than enough monographs posted on the matter.
The optimistic one was "EuroCrats Take Slim's Advice!
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/10/eurocrats-take-slims-advice.html
I thought, Finally, the EuroCrats will be addressing Economic Development:
If you can believe Wolfgang Schäuble, and it is in my best interest to do so, the EuroCrats will focus on ways to Promote Economic Growth. This is something heretofore not addressed. This is what I have been pressing to no avail--up till now.
As the EuroCrats plan to attend their meeting in Brussels, and the G 20 Leaders plan to attend theirs in Cannes, I can safely say that there is little indication that anything substantive will be accomplished. Certainly not when Prominent Individuals are discussing empowerment, momentum and excitement. (Empowerment? This is the EuroUnion, not a Nursery School.)
And Tim Geithner's remark,
"When France and Germany agree on a plan, big things are possible."
That, I described as "just silly". It seems to be an updated version of the old Cold War joke: Boris Badenov's, "Plotting big trouble for Moose and Squirrel."
The EuroCrats have pursued a course that is both ineffective and ineffectual. They refuse to see what is happening let alone what is going to happen.
"That you cannot predict the future is not a proper rebuff to the person who tells you to get off the track--the train is coming." -- Slim Fairivew
I apologise for the "commercial" reference to Starbucks. However, it was and is necessary. Both the reference and the coffee. You EuroCrats and other World Leaders definitely need to wake up.
Bon chance.
Sincerest regards,
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Showing posts with label European Economic debt and crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label European Economic debt and crisis. Show all posts
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
EuroCrats Take Slim's Advice!
Finally! It was a struggle, but the EuroCrats are finally taking my advice. Maybe now they will offer me a job. Or not.
If you can believe Wolfgang Schäuble, and it is in my best interest to do so, the EuroCrats will focus on ways to Promote Economic Growth. This is something heretofore not addressed. This is what I have been pressing to no avail--up till now.
The absence of ways to promote economic growth has been the cornerstone of the EuroCrats' failure to improve the EuroZone economy or at least stem the decline. Things may now change. However, (for those who've read the monograph on my blog) there is still the EuroGlitch. Now, however, I can report that that glitch is not merely a misalliance between France and Germany. It is a sword that hangs over everyone's head.
From the Manchester Guardian:
Schäuble said a final package would not be in place until the G20 world leaders' summit in Cannes next month. His comments dismayed investors concerned that Berlin and Paris have failed to grasp the magnitude of the eurozone's debt crisis. [ Hold that thought. ]
From the Manchester Guardian:
However, his strong insistence on bank recapitalisation and a restructuring of Greek debt suggests this will not be a painless or a quick outcome. More importantly, he is defending the German approach to the debt crisis and is very robust when talking about the failings of financial markets and the need for fresh regulation.
I will leave both quotes where they are. You can remember them and apply them at the appropriate time.
On The Merkel Plan, Steffen Seibert, spokesman for Angela Merkel, reported "Those are working steps". Translation: We created a plan that will take a long time hoping the crisis resolves itself somewhere along the way. In short, they are back to "hope as a plan".
The real problem, which I alluded to only briefly, and even then inadvertently, is Chancellor Merkel.
Chancellor Merkel has been playing Dionysus, dangling swords over everyone's heads. Perhaps the Chancellor should be the banquet guest instead:
Angela Merkel's strict demands for Greek Austerity, (Without the brand new concession to Economic Development) imposed great hardships on Greece. This inspired my monograph, The EuroCrats' Trojan Plan: Destroy Greece.
You cannot, fire people, cut salaries, raise property taxes, and call it a solution to the problem of Greek Debt.
Angela Merkel's step to bolster the EuroFund with no scraps for France, inspired the monograph, The EuroGlitch. It arose from the comment, "Why should German taxpayers bailout a French Bank that is going to compete with a German Bank".
To France: You may bring the food, but you may not eat any of the food because I am rich.
Additional demands mandated that I point out that:
"Investors invest money to make profits not to mitigate losses."
This arose from the Demands that Private Investors bear a greater burden in the Greek Debt Bailout (Up to 50%).
This suggests that the EuroCrats said to the EuroBanks, "We will give you more money so you can make more bad loans." I must wonder, is this before or after the 50% losses they must endure?
To the Private Investors: Just Send Money--not ideas.
Moody's just warned of a downgrade for French Banks.
EuroBanks have divested themselves of Greek Debt. Not so, France.
France faces a downgrade.
France is left holding the bag.
However, all is not lost.
You have read my comments on the EuroCrisis, The EuroMess, The EuroGlitch, Project Greece, et. al. (Perhaps you even read my monograph Point Taken.)
You may remember my derision of such remarks by Tim Geithner as:
"When France and Germany agree on a plan, big things are possible." (Well, that's just silly.)
Now, however, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
The Old Plan
Recapitalise the Banks
Bolster the Bailout Fund
Bailout for Greece.
The New Plan
Recapitalise the Banks
Bolster the Bailout Fund
Bailout Greece
Develop ways to promote economic growth
Strengthen the management of the EuroZone.
Repeat
Develop Ways to Promote Economic Growth
Strengthen the Management of the EuroZone
Why didn't they simply listen to me in the first place? Alas, no.
"Don't bother listening to me. Everyone always doesn't listen to me."
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/ Commentary on Global Political and Economic Events by Slim Fairview. Read my stuff today or hear it from experts in a month or two. Slim
Bon Chance.
Sincerely,
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
If you can believe Wolfgang Schäuble, and it is in my best interest to do so, the EuroCrats will focus on ways to Promote Economic Growth. This is something heretofore not addressed. This is what I have been pressing to no avail--up till now.
The absence of ways to promote economic growth has been the cornerstone of the EuroCrats' failure to improve the EuroZone economy or at least stem the decline. Things may now change. However, (for those who've read the monograph on my blog) there is still the EuroGlitch. Now, however, I can report that that glitch is not merely a misalliance between France and Germany. It is a sword that hangs over everyone's head.
From the Manchester Guardian:
Schäuble said a final package would not be in place until the G20 world leaders' summit in Cannes next month. His comments dismayed investors concerned that Berlin and Paris have failed to grasp the magnitude of the eurozone's debt crisis. [ Hold that thought. ]
From the Manchester Guardian:
However, his strong insistence on bank recapitalisation and a restructuring of Greek debt suggests this will not be a painless or a quick outcome. More importantly, he is defending the German approach to the debt crisis and is very robust when talking about the failings of financial markets and the need for fresh regulation.
I will leave both quotes where they are. You can remember them and apply them at the appropriate time.
On The Merkel Plan, Steffen Seibert, spokesman for Angela Merkel, reported "Those are working steps". Translation: We created a plan that will take a long time hoping the crisis resolves itself somewhere along the way. In short, they are back to "hope as a plan".
The real problem, which I alluded to only briefly, and even then inadvertently, is Chancellor Merkel.
Chancellor Merkel has been playing Dionysus, dangling swords over everyone's heads. Perhaps the Chancellor should be the banquet guest instead:
Angela Merkel's strict demands for Greek Austerity, (Without the brand new concession to Economic Development) imposed great hardships on Greece. This inspired my monograph, The EuroCrats' Trojan Plan: Destroy Greece.
You cannot, fire people, cut salaries, raise property taxes, and call it a solution to the problem of Greek Debt.
Angela Merkel's step to bolster the EuroFund with no scraps for France, inspired the monograph, The EuroGlitch. It arose from the comment, "Why should German taxpayers bailout a French Bank that is going to compete with a German Bank".
To France: You may bring the food, but you may not eat any of the food because I am rich.
Additional demands mandated that I point out that:
"Investors invest money to make profits not to mitigate losses."
This arose from the Demands that Private Investors bear a greater burden in the Greek Debt Bailout (Up to 50%).
This suggests that the EuroCrats said to the EuroBanks, "We will give you more money so you can make more bad loans." I must wonder, is this before or after the 50% losses they must endure?
To the Private Investors: Just Send Money--not ideas.
Moody's just warned of a downgrade for French Banks.
EuroBanks have divested themselves of Greek Debt. Not so, France.
France faces a downgrade.
France is left holding the bag.
However, all is not lost.
You have read my comments on the EuroCrisis, The EuroMess, The EuroGlitch, Project Greece, et. al. (Perhaps you even read my monograph Point Taken.)
You may remember my derision of such remarks by Tim Geithner as:
"When France and Germany agree on a plan, big things are possible." (Well, that's just silly.)
Now, however, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
The Old Plan
Recapitalise the Banks
Bolster the Bailout Fund
Bailout for Greece.
The New Plan
Recapitalise the Banks
Bolster the Bailout Fund
Bailout Greece
Develop ways to promote economic growth
Strengthen the management of the EuroZone.
Repeat
Develop Ways to Promote Economic Growth
Strengthen the Management of the EuroZone
Why didn't they simply listen to me in the first place? Alas, no.
"Don't bother listening to me. Everyone always doesn't listen to me."
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/ Commentary on Global Political and Economic Events by Slim Fairview. Read my stuff today or hear it from experts in a month or two. Slim
Bon Chance.
Sincerely,
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Monday, October 17, 2011
EuroMess
The EuroMess is not the Debt Crisis
The EuroMess is the mismanagement of the EuroCrisis.
I said the other day, The EuroCrats are acting like monkeys chasing their own tails and chattering with delight when they catch them. Now the aren't even catching their tails. Still, they are chattering with delight.
The EuroCrats Craft a new plan
Broad ambitions but short on specifics. Still, they are delighted because it is a comprehensive plan.
It certainly is a safe plan, even if it won't work. How do I know it won't work?
Let us review the plan:
Higher Bank Capitalisation.
Beef up the bailout fund.
Bailout for Greece.
Now:
Did they do this before? Yes.
Repeatedly? Yes.
Did it work?
No.
Enough said?
No.
Enough said!
Yes!
How do the investors feel?
The investors were elated when the new plan was announced, but their elation was deflated when they learned there are no details.
There is, however, a technical term for this: Technical Finalisation".
But wait, there's more!
The EuroCrats rely on Private Investors to provide hundreds of billions of Euros that the fund cannot replace.
Berlin demands Private Investors take bigger losses.
Can anyone make space in his head for anyone who tries to explain how Germany is a help to the EuroZone?
I get the impression I am watching a family get together where the Rich Relatives eat the food that the Poor Relatives provided to curry favour. For what reason I will never know.
"Mama may have; Papa may have; but God bless the child that's got his own--that's got his own." God Bless the Child--Billie Holiday.
Tim Geithner:
"When France and Germany agree on a plan, big things are possible"
Is this Tim Geithner the Economist or Tim Geithner the Brush salesman?
China, Russia, India, Brazil offer to help.
That would appear to be a good thing. Still, that is short on Technical Finalisation. Let us all wait to see what happens. [ This does beg the question: If Emerging Nations contribute to the bailout, what happens to the economies of the emerging nations? ]
"There are no unintended consequences. Only unwanted consequences." Slim Faiview. From The Quotations of Slim Fairview Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Please refer to my blog for more details on these and other matters related to the failure of the EuroCrats to solve the crisis.
They are
Intelligent
Educated
Experienced.
In short, they have "credentials".
Why then the failure? Because they are clutching retentively to their ideologies. The problem will never be solved by a plan. Only by a project. Nouns do not solve problems. Verbs solve problems. We need technocrats. Not ideologues.
Bon Chance.
Sincerely,
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
The EuroMess is the mismanagement of the EuroCrisis.
I said the other day, The EuroCrats are acting like monkeys chasing their own tails and chattering with delight when they catch them. Now the aren't even catching their tails. Still, they are chattering with delight.
The EuroCrats Craft a new plan
Broad ambitions but short on specifics. Still, they are delighted because it is a comprehensive plan.
It certainly is a safe plan, even if it won't work. How do I know it won't work?
Let us review the plan:
Higher Bank Capitalisation.
Beef up the bailout fund.
Bailout for Greece.
Now:
Did they do this before? Yes.
Repeatedly? Yes.
Did it work?
No.
Enough said?
No.
Enough said!
Yes!
How do the investors feel?
The investors were elated when the new plan was announced, but their elation was deflated when they learned there are no details.
There is, however, a technical term for this: Technical Finalisation".
But wait, there's more!
The EuroCrats rely on Private Investors to provide hundreds of billions of Euros that the fund cannot replace.
Berlin demands Private Investors take bigger losses.
Can anyone make space in his head for anyone who tries to explain how Germany is a help to the EuroZone?
I get the impression I am watching a family get together where the Rich Relatives eat the food that the Poor Relatives provided to curry favour. For what reason I will never know.
"Mama may have; Papa may have; but God bless the child that's got his own--that's got his own." God Bless the Child--Billie Holiday.
Tim Geithner:
"When France and Germany agree on a plan, big things are possible"
Is this Tim Geithner the Economist or Tim Geithner the Brush salesman?
China, Russia, India, Brazil offer to help.
That would appear to be a good thing. Still, that is short on Technical Finalisation. Let us all wait to see what happens. [ This does beg the question: If Emerging Nations contribute to the bailout, what happens to the economies of the emerging nations? ]
"There are no unintended consequences. Only unwanted consequences." Slim Faiview. From The Quotations of Slim Fairview Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Please refer to my blog for more details on these and other matters related to the failure of the EuroCrats to solve the crisis.
They are
Intelligent
Educated
Experienced.
In short, they have "credentials".
Why then the failure? Because they are clutching retentively to their ideologies. The problem will never be solved by a plan. Only by a project. Nouns do not solve problems. Verbs solve problems. We need technocrats. Not ideologues.
Bon Chance.
Sincerely,
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Alors! EuroCrats: Man Up or Move On!
The EuroCrats have finally sunk to a new low. Even for the EuroCrats.
They have a new plan.
Sell the old plan like a sales manager at a pep rally for brush salesmen.
Then:
Did you do it before?
Yes.
Did it work?
No.
Don't do that!
Now:
Did you do it before?
Hip, hip hooray.
Did it work?
Hip, hip hooray.
Don't do that?
The reason why it didn't work is because we didn't have enthusiasm. We didn't have momentum. We were not excited about the product.
The WSJ: Reports from the EuroZone
The new plan is built on three central elements:
A new bailout for Greece,
An effort to shore up the banks affected by Greek losses - and potential future losses from other troubled euro zone countries
Additional firepower for the bloc's bailout fund, to provide a reassuring backstop.
That is the same plan. What changed? The enthusiasm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
From the New York Times Headline News
G-20 Seeks Broader Solution for Europe Debt Crisis
François Baroin, the French finance minister, said after talks on Friday that officials had “already come to some agreements that will be very important,” but he did not elaborate.
Other quotes included enthusiasm and momentum.
At this point in time, the EuroCrats look like monkeys chasing their own tails and chattering with delight when they catch them.
There is nothing new but the flavour of a brush salesmen pep rally.
The EuroCrats are wallowing in their own academic lethargy, indolence, and sloth. Despite the fact that they are all intelligent, educated, and experienced, they are still clutching retentively to their ideology like a two year old with his hands down his diaper.
The EuroCrats will not solve the problem with a multi-national dog & pony show; an empowerment & dignity festival; or a Smörgåsbord.
Since you refuse to take a great , bi, fat, hint and a half, I will take the initiative for you.
I will be posting a Greek Economic Development Project very shortly.
If you don't like it, IGNORE IT.
If you don't like it, TWEAK IT.
However, don't waste your time arguing with me. You had a dozen chances. You kept doing the same thing time and time again.
Did things get more high, good, better?
No?
Did things get more low, bad, worse?
Yes?
Don't do that stuff, anymore.
As I said before, "Put me in charge. I can do just as bad a job, but I can come up with much better excuses. The dog ate my economic development report."
Bon chance.
Slim
ps. Did a French bank suffer a rating downgrade? Did I not tell you that would happen?
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
They have a new plan.
Sell the old plan like a sales manager at a pep rally for brush salesmen.
Then:
Did you do it before?
Yes.
Did it work?
No.
Don't do that!
Now:
Did you do it before?
Hip, hip hooray.
Did it work?
Hip, hip hooray.
Don't do that?
The reason why it didn't work is because we didn't have enthusiasm. We didn't have momentum. We were not excited about the product.
The WSJ: Reports from the EuroZone
The new plan is built on three central elements:
A new bailout for Greece,
An effort to shore up the banks affected by Greek losses - and potential future losses from other troubled euro zone countries
Additional firepower for the bloc's bailout fund, to provide a reassuring backstop.
That is the same plan. What changed? The enthusiasm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
From the New York Times Headline News
G-20 Seeks Broader Solution for Europe Debt Crisis
François Baroin, the French finance minister, said after talks on Friday that officials had “already come to some agreements that will be very important,” but he did not elaborate.
Other quotes included enthusiasm and momentum.
At this point in time, the EuroCrats look like monkeys chasing their own tails and chattering with delight when they catch them.
There is nothing new but the flavour of a brush salesmen pep rally.
The EuroCrats are wallowing in their own academic lethargy, indolence, and sloth. Despite the fact that they are all intelligent, educated, and experienced, they are still clutching retentively to their ideology like a two year old with his hands down his diaper.
The EuroCrats will not solve the problem with a multi-national dog & pony show; an empowerment & dignity festival; or a Smörgåsbord.
Since you refuse to take a great , bi, fat, hint and a half, I will take the initiative for you.
I will be posting a Greek Economic Development Project very shortly.
If you don't like it, IGNORE IT.
If you don't like it, TWEAK IT.
However, don't waste your time arguing with me. You had a dozen chances. You kept doing the same thing time and time again.
Did things get more high, good, better?
No?
Did things get more low, bad, worse?
Yes?
Don't do that stuff, anymore.
As I said before, "Put me in charge. I can do just as bad a job, but I can come up with much better excuses. The dog ate my economic development report."
Bon chance.
Slim
ps. Did a French bank suffer a rating downgrade? Did I not tell you that would happen?
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Thursday, September 29, 2011
EuroCracy with Apologies to Swift
Okay. Now it is time to take the gloves off. With apologies to Jonathan Swift.
When a nation truly appears to try to do better in this world, you may know it by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him. Jonathan Swift
Why all the vitriol for Greece? And in this case, I mean sulfuric acid.
This is what we are hearing from the EuroWizards.
The analysts supported the €110 Billion bailout payment. This, based on the assumption that the Greek economy would grow. (Experience Growth--passive tense.) When there was no growth, the analysts supported imposing sanctions on Greece to punish Greece. For what? For the fact that the analysts assumptions were wrong.
Analysts now tell us that they believe that the €400 Billion "emergency fund" is too small. I may have been bewildered by the babble, however, what I heard is this. "We are not putting more money into the fund. We will, however, co-sign a loan so "The Fund" can borrow money to double in size. (No, we are not in Bernie Madoff territory. Not yet.)
To further aggravate the situation:
ag·gra·vateVerb/ˈagrəˌvāt/
1. Make (a problem, injury, or offense) worse or more serious.
2. Annoy or exasperate (someone), esp. persistently. More »
Dictionary.com - Answers.com - Merriam-Webster - The Free Dictionary
To further aggravate the situation, the EuroCrats have been clutching retentively to the talisman of Austerity. This, like the monkey's paw, grants three wishes. (The downside? The third wish is for death.) The EuroCrats are killing Greece with kindness. The EuroCratic posture toward Greece is: condescending, patronising, and rude.
The programmes are constructed to fail.
"Everybody knows what everybody knows." -- Slim Fairview
"Some people as questions seeking information. Other people as questions so they can interrupt, argue, and pretend they're right." -- Slim Fairivew
"Don't bother asking me. You don't want to hear my opinion. You want to hear your opinion." --Slim Fairview
Last night, as I pondered the situation, I had an epiphany. (Not Θεοφάνεια, Τheophaneia A vision of God; but rather ἐπιφάνεια, epiphaneia, "manifestation" (Okay, enough Googling.)
The ἐπιφάνεια came about when I asked myself, "Why are the EuroCrats clutching retentively to to DEBT RELIEF. Schuldenerlass. Übersetzung für Schuldenerlass? Bernie Madoff.
Greece owes money.
The EuroCrats want to get repaid.
(Giving Greece Money so they can pay back their loans may seem surficially bewildering, however, follow the "logic".)
Greece is in debt. The only thing the Bonds Bear are Low Ratings.
The EuroCrats Create a bailout fund to help Greece with their debt. They prop up Greek Bonds.
Investors Buy the Bonds.
Greece is able to repay the EuroCrats.
The EuroCrats get their money and leave Greece and Private investors holding the bag.
(Analogy: You buy stock. The stock price tumbles. You lose money only if you sell the stock.)
What are the austerity measures being inflicted on Greece and upon the Greek people?
We cut your wages
We lose tax revenue
We fire people
We lose more tax revenue
We raise property taxes on people who make less money or no money at all.
We cowtow to the cows who tell us how wonderful we are to bear the burden to save our country. We feel good about ourselves. No we don't. We feel as if we've been Berned. [sic]
and we are Madoff as hell about it.
With my sincere condolences.
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
When a nation truly appears to try to do better in this world, you may know it by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him. Jonathan Swift
Why all the vitriol for Greece? And in this case, I mean sulfuric acid.
This is what we are hearing from the EuroWizards.
The analysts supported the €110 Billion bailout payment. This, based on the assumption that the Greek economy would grow. (Experience Growth--passive tense.) When there was no growth, the analysts supported imposing sanctions on Greece to punish Greece. For what? For the fact that the analysts assumptions were wrong.
Analysts now tell us that they believe that the €400 Billion "emergency fund" is too small. I may have been bewildered by the babble, however, what I heard is this. "We are not putting more money into the fund. We will, however, co-sign a loan so "The Fund" can borrow money to double in size. (No, we are not in Bernie Madoff territory. Not yet.)
To further aggravate the situation:
ag·gra·vateVerb/ˈagrəˌvāt/
1. Make (a problem, injury, or offense) worse or more serious.
2. Annoy or exasperate (someone), esp. persistently. More »
Dictionary.com - Answers.com - Merriam-Webster - The Free Dictionary
To further aggravate the situation, the EuroCrats have been clutching retentively to the talisman of Austerity. This, like the monkey's paw, grants three wishes. (The downside? The third wish is for death.) The EuroCrats are killing Greece with kindness. The EuroCratic posture toward Greece is: condescending, patronising, and rude.
The programmes are constructed to fail.
"Everybody knows what everybody knows." -- Slim Fairview
"Some people as questions seeking information. Other people as questions so they can interrupt, argue, and pretend they're right." -- Slim Fairivew
"Don't bother asking me. You don't want to hear my opinion. You want to hear your opinion." --Slim Fairview
Last night, as I pondered the situation, I had an epiphany. (Not Θεοφάνεια, Τheophaneia A vision of God; but rather ἐπιφάνεια, epiphaneia, "manifestation" (Okay, enough Googling.)
The ἐπιφάνεια came about when I asked myself, "Why are the EuroCrats clutching retentively to to DEBT RELIEF. Schuldenerlass. Übersetzung für Schuldenerlass? Bernie Madoff.
Greece owes money.
The EuroCrats want to get repaid.
(Giving Greece Money so they can pay back their loans may seem surficially bewildering, however, follow the "logic".)
Greece is in debt. The only thing the Bonds Bear are Low Ratings.
The EuroCrats Create a bailout fund to help Greece with their debt. They prop up Greek Bonds.
Investors Buy the Bonds.
Greece is able to repay the EuroCrats.
The EuroCrats get their money and leave Greece and Private investors holding the bag.
(Analogy: You buy stock. The stock price tumbles. You lose money only if you sell the stock.)
What are the austerity measures being inflicted on Greece and upon the Greek people?
We cut your wages
We lose tax revenue
We fire people
We lose more tax revenue
We raise property taxes on people who make less money or no money at all.
We cowtow to the cows who tell us how wonderful we are to bear the burden to save our country. We feel good about ourselves. No we don't. We feel as if we've been Berned. [sic]
and we are Madoff as hell about it.
With my sincere condolences.
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Friday, August 19, 2011
EuroCrisis Analogy
You and your two sisters have been asking your parents for an allowance.
They have resisted. They have explained that you are not responsible. However, they will discuss it privately.
A few days later, they call you and your two sisters to a meeting. They announce that they will give you an allowance. There are three conditions:
1. You save some.
2. You spend some.
3. You give some to the less fortunate.
You all agree. Happily.
You ask, “How much to we get?”
Your Dad explains.
“Your Mom and I are putting all the money into a shoebox. You may each take your allowance from there.”
Your one sister takes money out to buy two blouses. She puts $10.00 in her Piggy Bank.
Your other sister takes money out to buy one blouse. She puts $5.00 in her Piggy Bank.
You go to the shoebox and find only $3.00 left. You complain to your parents.
Your parents tell you to, “put $1.00 in your Piggy Bank, give $1.00 to the poor, and to spend $1.00 on yourself.”
Now do you understand why the EuroCrisis has not been solved?
Sincerely,
Slim
PS.
I am not Paul Harvey. However, I am open to becoming a paid commentator, columnist, or blogger.
If you’ve found anything I said to be helpful, please don’t hesitate to send me one of those tricked-out laptops and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.
Sincerest regards,
Slim
Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
Global Affairs: Everyone's Challenge
America has a problem. A domestic problem. A foreign problem. However, so does almost every other country in the world.
By now, many of you will have read some of what I’ve been writing on American Domestic Policy and American Foreign Policy. I will now explain the results of some of the fallacies we embrace to explain why we have problems. Then, how to solve them.
Foreign Affairs--The Middle East.
Libya
For the purposes of analysis, we shall assume that the Libyan forces succeed in assuming control of Libya.
When the rebel forces become the government of Libya, (the same forces that were recognised by European countries and ultimately recognised by American government), we in the US assume that there will be a Western Style Government.
What happens, however, when Libya is ruled by a Governing Council? A Council comprising the Tribal Leaders in different regions of Libya? There is every indication that the Libyan people want American Style Freedom. None that indicates that the Libyan people want American Style Government.
On to Syria.
Assume for the purposes of analysis that President Bashar al-Assad decides to retire from politics.
He files to collect his pension, sells his home, and buys something on the Mediterranean.
Further, assume, for analysis that the Syrian people eschew the Prime Minister/Parliament style government and embrace a Congress and President.
Tribal Leaders will fill the Senate. People will elect Representatives to The House. The people will elect a President. Now, what happens when the Government, in response to a referendum on foreign policy, rejects the US as a Syrian ally?
He files to collect his pension, sells his home, and buys something on the Mediterranean.
Further, assume, for analysis that the Syrian people eschew the Prime Minister/Parliament style government and embrace a Congress and President.
Tribal Leaders will fill the Senate. People will elect Representatives to The House. The people will elect a President. Now, what happens when the Government, in response to a referendum on foreign policy, rejects the US as a Syrian ally?
The above two examples are very likely outcomes of the changes in the Middle East.
In the first example, the people choose freedom, but not our style of government.
In the second example, the people choose freedom and our style of government, but reject us (US) as allies.
In the first example, the people choose freedom, but not our style of government.
In the second example, the people choose freedom and our style of government, but reject us (US) as allies.
The United States is not prepared to deal with these eventualities.
As it relates to my discussion on Pakistan:
“Diplomacy: if you have to explain it, it isn’t diplomacy.” The Quotations of Slim Fairview.
In our country, we have the need to talk about it. Whatever it is, we feel it is best to talk about it.
I covered this problem in my monograph: “Why I read newspapers.”
Why do I prefer getting my news from newspapers? That is analogous to why I prefer writing to talking. When I write, you can’t interrupt me. You can disagree with me. You simply cannot interrupt me.
“No one agrees with someone else’s opinion, only his own opinion expressed by someone else.” – My Dad.
You can stop reading what I wrote. You can tear up the paper, you can scream at the screen, you can even make a peanut butter and banana sandwich and shoot the computer, but you can’t interrupt me.
In addition to your disagreeing with me, and the aforementioned options for reacting to what I wrote, you can rise up in opposition. You can write an opposing piece or speak out in forums that offer the option.
Now, you have two options.
1. You can express an opposing view.
2. You can express your opposition to my view.
The latter, however, leaves your audience at a bit of a loss without their being able to read what I wrote.
You must, to make your position clear, reference what I said.
If you are preaching to the choir, it doesn’t matter. However, if you are addressing people with a sincere interest in the topic, they will read what I wrote. At this point, you lose dominance over the audience.
Your audience can read my monograph without interruption, form their own opinions, and draw their own conclusions.
They may agree with you, they may agree with me. (Put your stick down. They can’t see you and they can’t hear you.)
Such is the way it is when I read the newspaper. I can read a columnist. I can read another. I can read two newspapers for opposing views. I can read the editorial, I can read an op-ed, and I can read the letters to the editor. I can form my own opinions. I can form my own opinions in quiet contemplation.
This option is seldom available when TV News becomes entertainment.
When those with opposing views appear on television, they can express their opinions in turn, express them simultaneously, tell half-truths, or engage in evasions or misrepresentations. That is not news. That is not debate. That is pure theatre. The theatre of the perturbed.
Any questions? Well: “Don’t bother asking me. You don’t want to hear my opinion; you want to hear your opinion.” From The Quotations of Slim Fairview.
I’ve included the following to help to explain the problems the US is facing today.
Expert Opinions.
Here is an example on why we cannot and probably will not fix our economy.
You watch as experts explain the economy:
One economist works for a company that makes red paint. He says, “If you want to sell more widgets, paint the walls of your company red.”
Another economist works for a company that makes blue paint. He says, “If you want to sell more widgets, paint the walls of your company blue.”
Well, the bias is obvious. Less so, the supporting facts.
Red: “We have a study that says employees in companies with red walls are more pumped up and make more widgets—increased productivity.
Blue: We have a study that says employees in companies with blue walls are more serene and make fewer mistakes—higher quality.
What both sides don’t say:
Employees in companies with red walls make more widgets but make more mistakes resulting in many widgets being rejected for poor quality.
Employees in companies with blue walls make higher quality widgets with fewer mistakes, but make fewer widgets which results in lower productivity.
You can say both the Red Economist and The Blue Economist told the truth, half the truth, or half a lie [by omission].
Both sides misled the viewers about the benefits of the paint they sell.
This is the same problem we have with running companies, with foreign relations, and with our personal relationships.
The problems we have in Foreign Affairs and the problems we have in Domestic Affairs have the same root cause.
Much of our problems arise from various striations of within our culture.
It has become fashionable, (periodically) to discuss groupthink. Groupthink, however, is the consequence of consensus building. Consensus building is a product created by people to market themselves to companies looking to hire people, looking to promote people, or looking to solve problems with minimal opposition.
Unfortunately, the more people you add to the group, the more people are likely to line up with those who think like themselves or move to the centre to facilitate a solution and to look like team players. More people will not bring about solutions whether you call it groupthink or consensus building or team building.
Team building.
I do not like sports analogies. However, the image lends itself to pointing to the direction we need to go to solve problems.
The theory is, “There is no “I” in team. The meaning? We must all work together. Good thought. Poorly understood.
Take a football team. Here are some of the positions. Centre. Quarterback. End. Halfback.
Each member has a job to do. The Centre “snaps” the ball to the Quarterback and attempts to stop members of the opposing team who want to tackle the Quarterback.
The Quarterback, receiving the ball, has the job of deciding whether to run toward the goal, of giving the ball to a “Back Fielder” to run with the ball, or of passing the ball to one of the Ends. This is determined by conditions on the ground. Here are two considerations”
What are the competitors doing?
What are my teammates doing based on what our competitors are doing?
One of the Ends runs forward a few yards, turns, and runs to the centre of the field. The other End runs far down the field.
The Quarterback decides which End to throw the ball to based on conditions. Not on his opinions of the End’s skills and abilities to catch the ball, but on each End’s ability to catch the ball based on ground conditions. He is not concerned with whose turn it is to catch the ball. He is not concerned with the opinions of his teammates.
Teams. The team has a leader, The Quarterback, who makes decisions based on conditions.
Each member of the team has a job to do. His own job, not someone else’s job. We’ve lost that ability in our country.
We seek consensus, we seek opinions, we share responsibilities, and we make decisions based on input that is not related to achieving the goal.
In addition, we make decisions without regard to what the other team is doing.
Each member of the team has a job to do. His own job, not someone else’s job. We’ve lost that ability in our country.
We seek consensus, we seek opinions, we share responsibilities, and we make decisions based on input that is not related to achieving the goal.
In addition, we make decisions without regard to what the other team is doing.
Groups
I've studied groups. I’ve been a member of groups. I was in a group that studied itself. I worked in groups. I worked on committees. I worked on a committee to form a committee to set up a programme to form committees (you read that correctly). I dissected the different structures used to manage projects and explained why each does not work. (My emphasis on that which is prescriptive and not descriptive.)
This relates to the execution of strategy.
Impediments to Executing Strategy
I. The first impediment to executing strategy will be others who do not share your vision.
a. Your vision competes with their vision.
a. Your vision competes with their vision.
b. Your vision contravenes their assumptions.
1. If their strategy is based on their vision, your vision will threaten their position.
2. If their assumptions are repudiated, their reputation will suffer.
II. There will be challenges to the data you use to substantiate your strategy.
a. If you use the methods they use, your results will challenge their competency.
b. If you use different methods to arrive at your conclusions, their methods will be challenged.
c. Either a. and or b. will diminish either their self-image or their image within the company.
1. If you challenge their self-image, they will become hostile.
2. If you threaten their image in the company, they will become devious.
All of the above assumes that the people you work with and work for like you.
If they do not, the job of executing your strategy will be even more difficult.
However, as I am adamant in my opposition to articles that are descriptive and not prescriptive, I included organisational charts in one of my PowerPoint Presentations to show which structures that won’t work and which structures that will work and why. “Global Management: A shift in the paradigm of corporate America” located at Slideshare.net [This presentation also contains a section explaining group norms. A serious matter in business as well as Global Affairs.]
The reason all this is so pressing is that the world can no longer afford to play a zero-sum game. We lack the capacity to follow the path of the trajectory.
“The fact that you cannot predict the future is not the proper rebuff to someone who tells you to get off the tracks, the train is coming.” Slim Fairview
The Path of the Trajectory
As we plan into the future, are we considering the path of the trajectory?
Case in point. The pendulum swings both ways. The farther it swings one way, the farther it swings back.
Globalisation: Will the path of globalisation eventually lead to a path of isolationism.
Information: Will the information that we are relying upon so heavily, eventually become a curse that will lead people to retrench? An information overload can make the information virtually worthless if too much information cannot be accepted as reliable, or information is exposed to too many people.
Technology: Will the technology that enhances our efforts become so "intrusive" that we are paralysed by its intrusiveness?
Politics: Will the politics of globalisation lead to "Superpower Centres" with a detente between i.e. The Asian Center, The African Center, The Middle Eastern Center, The European Center, The Latin American Center, and the North American Center?
Case in point. The pendulum swings both ways. The farther it swings one way, the farther it swings back.
Globalisation: Will the path of globalisation eventually lead to a path of isolationism.
Information: Will the information that we are relying upon so heavily, eventually become a curse that will lead people to retrench? An information overload can make the information virtually worthless if too much information cannot be accepted as reliable, or information is exposed to too many people.
Technology: Will the technology that enhances our efforts become so "intrusive" that we are paralysed by its intrusiveness?
Politics: Will the politics of globalisation lead to "Superpower Centres" with a detente between i.e. The Asian Center, The African Center, The Middle Eastern Center, The European Center, The Latin American Center, and the North American Center?
Other factors must be considered. Especially if you are not from the US and are looking for some insights. To be efficient and to eliminate those who are not interested, I have links to the monographs that will explain various points.
Facts versus Opinions.
However, there is more to be said on the topic of experts than facts v. opinions or the colour of the paint you sell.
Experts
For every ten experts who say, "Do this!", you have ten experts who say, "Do that!"
Then someone else will come up with ten experts who say, "Do something else."
Another ten experts will say, "They're all right".
Another who will say, "They're all wrong".
Then another who will ask, "Who's to say what's right or wrong?"
Then the facilitator of the group will say, " There's no "I" in team! :-)”
If you don't believe me, ask an expert!
For every ten experts who say, "Do this!", you have ten experts who say, "Do that!"
Then someone else will come up with ten experts who say, "Do something else."
Another ten experts will say, "They're all right".
Another who will say, "They're all wrong".
Then another who will ask, "Who's to say what's right or wrong?"
Then the facilitator of the group will say, " There's no "I" in team! :-)”
If you don't believe me, ask an expert!
The problem of American Global Myopia
This is covered in, “More on Global Management.”
A stark look at how graphs are used to misrepresent facts, and how figures are used to misrepresent numbers:
Other Global Considerations that are being ignored.
China
China: The Economy and a Word Beginning with the Letter P.
The above monograph contains links to other monographs on China. As it has become fashionable in the West to discuss the Facebook Revolution, I have explained away the prognostications of the expert guests on News-Like Programmes.
As Molière’s Bourgeois Gentilhomme said, “All this time I thought I was merely reporting the news only to discover I’ve been speaking journalism.
Sincerest regards,
Slim
Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview
For Monographs on The Middle East and The European Union, please visit http://slimviews.blogspot.com
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