What to expect in the future--if there is one

That you cannot predict the future is not a proper rebuff to someone who tells you to get off the tracks because a train is coming.

Greek is suffering an economic crisis.  Italy is looking to cut spending. There seems to be an epidemic of austere proportions.

Germany is suggesting that private sector investors bear some of the burden of their speculation.  The scolds are everywhere but we don’t see much in standard practices when it comes to analysis.  We have experts galore, but few agree.

In the US, rising energy costs are seen as a problem that can be solved by summer.  Only a few months ago, the doomsayers were predicting $5 a gallon gas by summer.  Gas prices are declining.  For now.

China is feeling the impact of growth.  The Arab spring is turning into a very hot summer.

All agree that there are difficulties.  All agree that the problems may be around for a while.  Some have solutions.  None seem viable, practicable, or sustainable and most of what we read and hear is descriptive not prescriptive.

Hence:

The world can no longer afford to play a zero sum game.  For a while, this was the joint policy of US – Soviet relations.  (First strike capability, SALT treaties, détente.)  NATO, as evidenced by the Libyan Operation, seems more like a Maginot Line.

Therefore, a global initiative is mandatory.  It is compulsory.

It is intuitively obvious to the casual observer that an energy crisis is coming.  Increased competition for oil is what is causing prices to go up at the pump.  Not our failure to drive hybrids or use mercury vapor bulbs rather than incandescent bulbs.

Nuclear power can no longer be seen as a plan for the future.  Not unless you are planning for a disasters.  Such plans are intended to prevent disasters, not cause them.  You can have, tsunamis at the coast, floods along the rivers, fires in the forests, and if all else fails—earthquakes.

On my blog, I wrote Memo to Big Oil.  I also wrote; Nuclear Energy has lost its lustre but not its glow.  These are admonitions and cautionary tales.  Read them. Heed them.  The latter is a definite scolding of the US failure to embrace and pursue solar power over the past 50 years, and a seeming refusal to embrace and pursue it over the next 50 years.

At http://slideshare.net/slimfairview I posted two PowerPoint Presentations.  Global Management: A shift in the paradigm of corporate America and The Future of the G 20 in Good Times and Bad.

Each is a moderately concise vision of a.) How companies around the world can do a better job of going global and b.) A scenario for global disaster and the means to prevent it.  Take the time to review each.

On my blog, http://slimviews.blogspot.com/ I have posted numerous monographs explaining the fallacies and failures of Western Diplomacy in the Middle East.  No sooner than I make a case, my point becomes evident by way of the unfolding events.

The EuroCrats are quibbling while the Greek debt crisis grows larger. There seems to be no strategic planning—or non-strategic planning for that matter.  It would almost seem that Economic Development is something for discussion among the volunteers at a small town Chamber of Commerce Economic Development Committee.

The 21^st Century seems to be carrying forward the lust for symbolic gestures over substantive gains that hearken not to the last decade but to previous centuries.

Corporate business leaders have given precedence to the process after coming up with a plan.  The one thing they’ve forgotten is The Project.  That too has been covered in my writing.

If we are serious about the future—serious about having a future—we should get started rather quickly.

Sincerest regards,

Slim

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

Slimfairview@yahoo.com

EuroCrats: It is Our Policy to Fail

The handling or mishandling of the debt crisis by the EuroCrats proves one thing. The Process is the Problem.

From the IMF we learn that the set of policy choices that are economically viable and politically feasible is shrinking. That is a bold admission.

Further, the IMF acknowledges the market’s negative response but chooses to stay the course. This is wrong.

Still, the bold admission is a good thing. Oftentimes people don’t take bold action until a crisis is impending. Bureaucrats never do.

Now with Belgium, Italy, and Spain heading toward a crisis, why embrace a proven Policy of Failure? One glaring point: A cash infusion into banks that suffered losses due to the debt crisis will only cause the banks to continue to lose what others infuse.

Meanwhile, there is a call for taxpayers to bolster…..! Any call for taxpayers to bolster anything is a lose—lose situation.

If the plan fails, the crisis deepens.

If the plan succeeds, those who pay for the success of others will harbour a deep resentment. If you don’t believe me: Parliament Hampers Merkel Deal Making.

EuroBanks stand to lose €630 Billion. Banks are starting to not trust each other or lend to each other. That is not a good sign either.

The IMF goes on to say that the Global Credit Crisis moved into the Political Phase. Therein lies the punishment for using political considerations to solve the problem in the first place.



Greece and Europe suffer from problems of Austere Proportions.

As I previously stated, “Analysts conceded a €110 Billion bailout for Greece on the assumption that the Greek economy would grow. Then, they called for sanctions to punish Greece because their assumptions were wrong.”

The austerity measures to be imposed by (upon) Greece include a move to reduce public employment.

“There are no unintended consequences, only unwanted consequences.” –Slim Fairview



Such a move will

Reduce tax revenue.

Strain the social safety net,

Negatively impact the multiplier effect; if there is one.

[ http://www.slideshare.net/slimfairview/the-multiplier-effect-4962273 ]



Greece may consider some alternatives

Sell state owned assets [to Greek citizens].

Seek Foreign Investors instead of Foreign Lenders. [Asia. Brazil]

Encourage, promote, and support, entrepreneurship for the Greek people.



The Nanny-State mentality in Europe has less to do with benefits and more to do with business. It is easy for a society to become complacent if the jobs are already there whether provided by Big Government or by Big Business. SMEs provide jobs, growth, economic stimulus, and prosperity. Don’t believe me? The headline in the NY Times reads: India Nurtures Entrepreneurship.

Economic Stimulus by Metaphor

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/06/economic-stimulus-by-metaphor.html



Greece can also follow my prescription for the American housing crisis. Only they may wish to expand upon it—tailor it to Greek needs.

Stop Foreclosures

Rewrite Loans at a lower payment rate

Add a balloon payment. [2018, 2019, 2020]



Will all this work?

Did your efforts fail?

The EuroCrats are Intelligent, Educated, and Experienced.

Q: Why the failure?

A: The Process



The meeting of the minds emphasises consensus. The EuroCrats do not need consensus. The EuroCrats need acknowledgement.



“The fact that you cannot predict the future is not a proper rebuff to the one who tells you to get off the tracks a train is coming.” –Slim Fairview



Sincerest regards,

Slim





Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

We Can Fix the Economy. This is why we don't.

Am I an optimist?  Usually.  However, when it comes to fixing the economy, the fact that I keep beating a dead horse is more in indicator of my willingness to embrace hopelessness.


The metaphor I created for experts in economics involves this:

One economist works for a company that sells red paint. He says, "If you want to improve your business, paint the walls red."

Another economist works for a company that sells blue paint. He says, "If you want to improve your business, paint the walls blue."

That much may be obvious. The difficulty arises when they cite the statistics.

The Red Paint economist says, "Our study shows that red paint motivates employees. They produce more widgets. Your productivity will go up."

The Blue Paint economist says, "Our study shows that blue paint creates a greater sense of well-being. Your employees will make fewer mistakes and the quality of your widgets will go up."

What each side does not tell you, is that with red paint, the employees work faster, make more errors, and reduce the quality of the output; and, is that with blue paint, the employees make fewer mistakes and produce higher quality widgets, but make fewer widgets and reduce the quantity of the output.

To further the explanation, as most people don't understand economics, I posted several monographs, using metaphors, to explain the concepts.

1. A Primer in Economics.

2. The Multiplier Effect.

3. Economic Stimulus

4. How to fix the economy.

5. Another monograph on the economy

The Several Monographs on Economics will help non-economist visualise what happens in the economy.

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/07/understanding-economics-introduction-by.html

Regards,

Slim

PS.  I am not Paul Harvey.  However, I am open to becoming a commentator, columnist, or paid blogger.

If you’ve found anything I said to be helpful, please don’t hesitate to send me one of those tricked-out laptops and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.

Sincerest regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

You Don't Create Jobs by Selling Blue Paint

You don't create demand by creating jobs.  You create jobs by creating demand.

I explained this in part in a previous monograph.  You may want to review that now, or you may choose to review it later.

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/07/will-1-billion-create-7000-jobs-yes-and.html


This is election season.  You cannot expect much in the way of substance.  If Jonathan Swift were alive today, he would still be writing about small people who bicker over whether to crack open a soft cooked egg at the big end or the small end.

For the purposes of this discussion, we live in Chicago.  We live across the street from one another. 

You pull out of your driveway on your bicycle to announce you are pedaling to New York.  You make a right. 

I call out after you.  "If you want to go to New York, you have to turn left."

You reply, "Your way isn't the only way of doing it, you know?"

A few months later, you return.  You concede that I was right.

I tell you that I am planning to bicycle to New York.  You say, "Don't forget to turn left."

I reply, "If I want to go to New York, I have to turn right."

You become indignant.  "How come when I want to go to New York, I have to pull out of my driveway and turn left; but, when you do it, it's okay for you to turn right?"

That may have brought a smile to your face.  Unfortunately, I've had a similar discussion before.

Every Economist you hear discussing the economy works for somebody.  That should be simple enough to explain why we have not yet solved our economic crisis.  If not, let me say quite simply just this:

If I sell blue paint, I will tell you that if you want to create jobs, you have to paint the walls of your business blue.

There are two Dixie Cups in the freezer.  I take one out, look at it, see it is chocolate, and smile.  I like chocolate ice cream.  You walk into the kitchen, see the Dixie Cup and want to know if there is any more.  I tell you there is one left.  You open the freezer, take out the Dixie Cup and look at it.  You don't smile.  The Dixie Cup is strawberry ice cream.  You like chocolate: you are allergic to strawberry.  Because I am not a politician, I offer to switch.  We both know I am not all too fond of strawberry.  If we switch, we both get to eat ice cream.  If we don't, only I get to eat ice cream.

I suggest the voters watch closely at how Congress and the White House hand out the Dixie Cups.  Oh, yeah, and don't listen to the economists.  They do more than give advice on economics.  They also sell paint.


Regards,


Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com



Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Don't be so EuroCratic

Will Europe Survive its Efforts to Survive?

The EuroProcess seems to be one that stopped in midstream.  The grand Eurotopian Vision. (If you can believe the stuff you read in the Wall Street Journal, or the people they quote.)

The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.  Apparently not.  The Euro is a concept based on the goal that Europe would function as a single economy. Op. Cit, The US.  50 states, one currency.  I presume that the intention was a single government, a single currency:  all are one and attuned to the spheres.

As Yogi Berra once said, "In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is."  You can promote unity or you can promote diversity, but you can't do both.

There is no recipe for Stone Soup and no one is interested in eating it, anyway.
My interest is self-serving.  When I watch channel 13 I want to hear people saying things, like two and six, tuppence, and a fiver ( five pound note.)

For Europe to survive, as in the individual member nations to do well, there will have to be a re-scripting.  Preferably without the one who wrote the treatment for the disaster they face today.

Recognise the separate countries, recognise the separate economies with their respective industries, strengths and weaknesses, assets and liabilities, see what each country needs to fix its problems; see what assistance each country can offer those who have problems [preferably without creating new ones for themselves or others.] and begin to (herein lies the rub) negotiate in good faith with one another.

Speaking in the vernacular of an American:  Everybody's gotta get somethin'.

Some EuroCrats give the appearance of being able to contribute.  I will suggest Chancellor Merkel, Madame Lagarde, and some guy from one of the EuroBanks who said something sensible in a WSJ article.  However, there is a need for some outside objectivity.

Marketing:  Find a Need and Fill It.

Job Opening:  Analyst to assist EuroCrats in their effort to clean up their mess.

Responsibilities:  Too many

Compensation:    Not enough

Satisfaction:         Fleeting

To apply:  Don't bother, They don't want to hear your opinion, they want to hear their opinion.

Regards,


Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview