Showing posts with label European economic problems. Show all posts
Showing posts with label European economic problems. Show all posts
Friday, October 28, 2011
Slim Was Right EuroCrats Were Wrong
Cheers and Skepticism Greet EuroDeal. They always do. The Elation over a deal, the Deflation over the details. Plus ca change...
The Headline in the WSJ: "Will it Work." Well, does it ever? No?
Another quote from a EuroCrat was very disturbing. Very. "The implementation challenge is higher than the design challenge."
Translation. It was easy to come up with a plan. Implementing the plan will be difficult.
Why?
For one reason, there are few details. There are always "few details." Why? Because there are no details.
How can you implement a plan if you don't know what you are supposed to do? Yet, the process goes on. And that word keeps cropping up. Process. This is a process problem.
Herein, I am validated. Again. Repeatedly.
"Analysts saw lack of measures to boost economic growth as an Achilles Heel."
How often must I say it?
Cut Wages, fire people, increase property taxes--that is not a plan. That is not a project. That has not worked. That cannot work without an Economic Development Strategy. A polite way to say projects. I referenced that several times. It is on my monograph about China's success. I won't put the link here. Google it.
The next disturbing statement: Governments don't know if investors will respond well to the "Insurance Plan." Already the news on that matter is not good. "Default insurance market takes hit." I am guessing no one saw that coming. "There are no unintended consequences, only unwanted consequences." Slim Fairview
EuroPlan. Try it and HOPE it works. That is a plan. That is not a project. EuroCrats need to think in terms of Projects not Plans.
The Beefed UP bailout Fund has a critical flaw. Beef up the fund and hope this would be enough to help out OTHER debtor nations. Did this help Greece? No? You need a new and/or expanded approach.
The Next Move: New Fund Plan. Go to Asia for Investors. Go to Brazil for Investors. Go to PetroStates for Investors. This is not, I repeat NOT a strategy to resolve the EuroCrisis:
THIS IS A PONZI SCHEME. How far down the line do the EuroCrats intend to take this strategy?
Quote from a Greek Citizen: "Greek people are ashamed and angry." To the Greek Government. The People are Angry. The People are Rioting. Witness the Path of the Trajectory.
To the EuroCrats:
"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it." Santayana.
"Those who never learned history are doomed--period!" Slim Fairview
The problem with the EuroCrats? They cannot see the present.
"That you cannot predict the future is not the proper rebuff to the person who tells you to get off the tracks because a train is coming. In this case, "the" train is coming.
History is approaching quickly and you cannot see it. The EuroCrats are like the man who drives into a tunnel, sees two headlights approaching, and says, "I'll just drive between those two motor cycles." Hey, Guys. I borrowed that joke from Bozo the Clown. It seems not to be a joke, now.
There are more than enough monographs on my blog to point you in the right direction.
http://slimviews.blogspot.com
Bon Chance!
Regards,
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
THE HEADLINE: SLIM WAS RIGHT THE EUROCRATS WERE WRONG
Well, not yet. However, follow the progression of the tag lines:
Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a month or two.
Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a week or two.
Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a day or two.
Read my blog today, or read it in the Wall Street Journal tomorrow.
Then again, Don't bother asking me. Everyone always doesn't ask me.
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview.
Monday, October 17, 2011
EuroMess
The EuroMess is not the Debt Crisis
The EuroMess is the mismanagement of the EuroCrisis.
I said the other day, The EuroCrats are acting like monkeys chasing their own tails and chattering with delight when they catch them. Now the aren't even catching their tails. Still, they are chattering with delight.
The EuroCrats Craft a new plan
Broad ambitions but short on specifics. Still, they are delighted because it is a comprehensive plan.
It certainly is a safe plan, even if it won't work. How do I know it won't work?
Let us review the plan:
Higher Bank Capitalisation.
Beef up the bailout fund.
Bailout for Greece.
Now:
Did they do this before? Yes.
Repeatedly? Yes.
Did it work?
No.
Enough said?
No.
Enough said!
Yes!
How do the investors feel?
The investors were elated when the new plan was announced, but their elation was deflated when they learned there are no details.
There is, however, a technical term for this: Technical Finalisation".
But wait, there's more!
The EuroCrats rely on Private Investors to provide hundreds of billions of Euros that the fund cannot replace.
Berlin demands Private Investors take bigger losses.
Can anyone make space in his head for anyone who tries to explain how Germany is a help to the EuroZone?
I get the impression I am watching a family get together where the Rich Relatives eat the food that the Poor Relatives provided to curry favour. For what reason I will never know.
"Mama may have; Papa may have; but God bless the child that's got his own--that's got his own." God Bless the Child--Billie Holiday.
Tim Geithner:
"When France and Germany agree on a plan, big things are possible"
Is this Tim Geithner the Economist or Tim Geithner the Brush salesman?
China, Russia, India, Brazil offer to help.
That would appear to be a good thing. Still, that is short on Technical Finalisation. Let us all wait to see what happens. [ This does beg the question: If Emerging Nations contribute to the bailout, what happens to the economies of the emerging nations? ]
"There are no unintended consequences. Only unwanted consequences." Slim Faiview. From The Quotations of Slim Fairview Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Please refer to my blog for more details on these and other matters related to the failure of the EuroCrats to solve the crisis.
They are
Intelligent
Educated
Experienced.
In short, they have "credentials".
Why then the failure? Because they are clutching retentively to their ideologies. The problem will never be solved by a plan. Only by a project. Nouns do not solve problems. Verbs solve problems. We need technocrats. Not ideologues.
Bon Chance.
Sincerely,
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
The EuroMess is the mismanagement of the EuroCrisis.
I said the other day, The EuroCrats are acting like monkeys chasing their own tails and chattering with delight when they catch them. Now the aren't even catching their tails. Still, they are chattering with delight.
The EuroCrats Craft a new plan
Broad ambitions but short on specifics. Still, they are delighted because it is a comprehensive plan.
It certainly is a safe plan, even if it won't work. How do I know it won't work?
Let us review the plan:
Higher Bank Capitalisation.
Beef up the bailout fund.
Bailout for Greece.
Now:
Did they do this before? Yes.
Repeatedly? Yes.
Did it work?
No.
Enough said?
No.
Enough said!
Yes!
How do the investors feel?
The investors were elated when the new plan was announced, but their elation was deflated when they learned there are no details.
There is, however, a technical term for this: Technical Finalisation".
But wait, there's more!
The EuroCrats rely on Private Investors to provide hundreds of billions of Euros that the fund cannot replace.
Berlin demands Private Investors take bigger losses.
Can anyone make space in his head for anyone who tries to explain how Germany is a help to the EuroZone?
I get the impression I am watching a family get together where the Rich Relatives eat the food that the Poor Relatives provided to curry favour. For what reason I will never know.
"Mama may have; Papa may have; but God bless the child that's got his own--that's got his own." God Bless the Child--Billie Holiday.
Tim Geithner:
"When France and Germany agree on a plan, big things are possible"
Is this Tim Geithner the Economist or Tim Geithner the Brush salesman?
China, Russia, India, Brazil offer to help.
That would appear to be a good thing. Still, that is short on Technical Finalisation. Let us all wait to see what happens. [ This does beg the question: If Emerging Nations contribute to the bailout, what happens to the economies of the emerging nations? ]
"There are no unintended consequences. Only unwanted consequences." Slim Faiview. From The Quotations of Slim Fairview Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Please refer to my blog for more details on these and other matters related to the failure of the EuroCrats to solve the crisis.
They are
Intelligent
Educated
Experienced.
In short, they have "credentials".
Why then the failure? Because they are clutching retentively to their ideologies. The problem will never be solved by a plan. Only by a project. Nouns do not solve problems. Verbs solve problems. We need technocrats. Not ideologues.
Bon Chance.
Sincerely,
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
Sunday, October 9, 2011
ECONOMIC SOFT-WAR
Who Controls Which Resources?
This is a crucial question. Why? Because how resources are allocated will determine more than Global Economic Direction. It will determine survival.
Economic Resources
Economic resources are learned at an early age. In fact, as early as DayCare.
What are the topics of concern?
The Source of the Resources.
The Quantity of the Resources.
The Quality of the Resources.
The Control of the Resources.
The Allocation of the Resources.
The Demand for the Resources.
Simple stuff, eh?
Back to DayCare
A few years back, social scientists released the results of a study suggesting that children in DayCare are more aggressive than stay-at-home children.
This did not elicit a response. This elicited a reaction. The result? A learning opportunity was lost. The lesson not learned is about economics. [It did, however, reveal a crucial resource--validation. More on that later.]
In a DayCare Centre you have fixed resources and variable, and unpredictable, demand.
Supply
5 Paint & Easel Sets
5 Colouring book & Crayon Sets
1 Set of Blocks.
Demand
Monday: Six boys want to paint. One is left out.
Tuesday: The boy who missed out on Monday scrambles for one of the Paint & Easel Sets--only to learn that the five other boys opted for the Colouring book & Crayon Sets; or worse, Building a fort with the blocks.
Some boys are naturally more aggressive. Others are more passive. Some end up playing solitaire with the teacher.
Everyone can't be the leader
What makes a leader? "Look behind you. If people are following you, you're a leader. If they're not, you're not." --Slim Fairview.
The teacher can schedule and allocate the resources. However, this will stifle the development of leadership and of negotiating skills. It will impede cognitive development and individual growth. It will disrupt group harmony--yes it will! Finally, it won't work. No one wants to follow the person that the teacher put in charge.
The Stay-at-Home Child
Supply
The stay-at-home child has toys. However, he can also see "a growth curve". A birthday, Christmas, Grandma and Grandpa are coming in from Indiana to visit. The growth curve may be intuited, however, it does exist.
Demand
The stay-at-home child can, in a manner of speaking, control the demand. Invite one friend? Invite two friends? Also, he allocates the resources. Let's review the list:
The Source of the Resources.
The Quantity of the Resources.
The Quality of the Resources.
The Control of the Resources.
The Allocation of the Resources.
The Demand for the Resources.
Market Disruptions
There are, however, market disruptions.
"Surprise, Tommy, your cousin is coming for a visit!!"
Mommy smiles.
Tommy Smiles.
Experience kicks in.
Which cousin?
Steven with Aunt Polly or Odious with Aunt Bertha?
Tommy learns to make value judgments.
Mom cannot "sell" Cousin Odious and Aunt Bertha.
Neither cousin is deprived. Steven has manners. Odious does not. View those facts as prevalent characteristics of a demographic subset--Norms!
How Resources are Allocated and the Effect. Utility
I once said, "I learned more about management from reading novels than I did from reading textbooks."
It would be too simplistic to describe Dr. Zhivago skulking home with wood concealed beneath "Gogol's Overcoat". No, we need more than that.
Heinrich Böll's, Group Portrait with Lady, illustrates my point more effectively.
In the novel, Leni Pfeiffer, works as a florist. Coffee is rationed. Each co-worker makes his or her own coffee. To make the coffee last, each of her co-workers adds chicory to the coffee. What is crucial is the ratio of coffee to chicory. Those using more coffee are viewed suspiciously by those using more chicory. A potent image. A bad omen.
Utility
You are just in time to arrive at a very important meeting.
There is a parking space in front of the building.
The traffic warden is down the street and heading your way.
You park--you have 8 quarters in the console.
You open the console. There is 10 dollar bill a note:
"Needed change. You made a 500% return on your investment. Ha, ha."
This is not funny.
You see a panhandler. You offer him $10. for four quarters.
One metaphorical dollar has a value of $10. Why? Form Utility.
The panhandler starts to haggle.
You tell the panhandler if he doesn't agree to the deal, you will get in your car and drive away. He will have only one dollar and not ten. He agrees to the deal.
In two minutes, those four quarters will have no value. Time Utility.
You are now prepared to go into the meeting with the ability to make your point with both authority and clarity. You can paint a picture.
Supply and demand.
Form Utility
Time Utility
This is all more than a EuroZone issue. This is a Global Issue.
Resources
The EuroCrats no doubt know the principles of economics. The problem arises from the lack of ability to apply that knowledge to real problems in a real way.
This brings us to the point I touched on earlier:
Validation
First, if you never read the fable "Stone Soup" Google it now and read it. The story is an old one. The story is a European one. The EuroCrats have forgotten it.
The EuroZone nations are more focused on symbolic gestures than they are on substantive gains. They are seeking personal and professional and national validation.
I will make it simple.
You have a problem.
You do something.
The problem gets worse.
You do the same thing.
The problem gets worse.
1st step: Don't do that!
"The fact that we must do something is no excuse to do something stupid." -- Slim Fairview.
The Zero-Sum game is no longer viable. It is a deadly game.
Let us review.
The Source
The Quantity
The Quality
The Control
The Allocation
The Demand
And, of course, the Validation.
Bon Chance.
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
This is a crucial question. Why? Because how resources are allocated will determine more than Global Economic Direction. It will determine survival.
Economic Resources
Economic resources are learned at an early age. In fact, as early as DayCare.
What are the topics of concern?
The Source of the Resources.
The Quantity of the Resources.
The Quality of the Resources.
The Control of the Resources.
The Allocation of the Resources.
The Demand for the Resources.
Simple stuff, eh?
Back to DayCare
A few years back, social scientists released the results of a study suggesting that children in DayCare are more aggressive than stay-at-home children.
This did not elicit a response. This elicited a reaction. The result? A learning opportunity was lost. The lesson not learned is about economics. [It did, however, reveal a crucial resource--validation. More on that later.]
In a DayCare Centre you have fixed resources and variable, and unpredictable, demand.
Supply
5 Paint & Easel Sets
5 Colouring book & Crayon Sets
1 Set of Blocks.
Demand
Monday: Six boys want to paint. One is left out.
Tuesday: The boy who missed out on Monday scrambles for one of the Paint & Easel Sets--only to learn that the five other boys opted for the Colouring book & Crayon Sets; or worse, Building a fort with the blocks.
Some boys are naturally more aggressive. Others are more passive. Some end up playing solitaire with the teacher.
Everyone can't be the leader
What makes a leader? "Look behind you. If people are following you, you're a leader. If they're not, you're not." --Slim Fairview.
The teacher can schedule and allocate the resources. However, this will stifle the development of leadership and of negotiating skills. It will impede cognitive development and individual growth. It will disrupt group harmony--yes it will! Finally, it won't work. No one wants to follow the person that the teacher put in charge.
The Stay-at-Home Child
Supply
The stay-at-home child has toys. However, he can also see "a growth curve". A birthday, Christmas, Grandma and Grandpa are coming in from Indiana to visit. The growth curve may be intuited, however, it does exist.
Demand
The stay-at-home child can, in a manner of speaking, control the demand. Invite one friend? Invite two friends? Also, he allocates the resources. Let's review the list:
The Source of the Resources.
The Quantity of the Resources.
The Quality of the Resources.
The Control of the Resources.
The Allocation of the Resources.
The Demand for the Resources.
Market Disruptions
There are, however, market disruptions.
"Surprise, Tommy, your cousin is coming for a visit!!"
Mommy smiles.
Tommy Smiles.
Experience kicks in.
Which cousin?
Steven with Aunt Polly or Odious with Aunt Bertha?
Tommy learns to make value judgments.
Mom cannot "sell" Cousin Odious and Aunt Bertha.
Neither cousin is deprived. Steven has manners. Odious does not. View those facts as prevalent characteristics of a demographic subset--Norms!
How Resources are Allocated and the Effect. Utility
I once said, "I learned more about management from reading novels than I did from reading textbooks."
It would be too simplistic to describe Dr. Zhivago skulking home with wood concealed beneath "Gogol's Overcoat". No, we need more than that.
Heinrich Böll's, Group Portrait with Lady, illustrates my point more effectively.
In the novel, Leni Pfeiffer, works as a florist. Coffee is rationed. Each co-worker makes his or her own coffee. To make the coffee last, each of her co-workers adds chicory to the coffee. What is crucial is the ratio of coffee to chicory. Those using more coffee are viewed suspiciously by those using more chicory. A potent image. A bad omen.
Utility
You are just in time to arrive at a very important meeting.
There is a parking space in front of the building.
The traffic warden is down the street and heading your way.
You park--you have 8 quarters in the console.
You open the console. There is 10 dollar bill a note:
"Needed change. You made a 500% return on your investment. Ha, ha."
This is not funny.
You see a panhandler. You offer him $10. for four quarters.
One metaphorical dollar has a value of $10. Why? Form Utility.
The panhandler starts to haggle.
You tell the panhandler if he doesn't agree to the deal, you will get in your car and drive away. He will have only one dollar and not ten. He agrees to the deal.
In two minutes, those four quarters will have no value. Time Utility.
You are now prepared to go into the meeting with the ability to make your point with both authority and clarity. You can paint a picture.
Supply and demand.
Form Utility
Time Utility
This is all more than a EuroZone issue. This is a Global Issue.
Resources
The EuroCrats no doubt know the principles of economics. The problem arises from the lack of ability to apply that knowledge to real problems in a real way.
This brings us to the point I touched on earlier:
Validation
First, if you never read the fable "Stone Soup" Google it now and read it. The story is an old one. The story is a European one. The EuroCrats have forgotten it.
The EuroZone nations are more focused on symbolic gestures than they are on substantive gains. They are seeking personal and professional and national validation.
I will make it simple.
You have a problem.
You do something.
The problem gets worse.
You do the same thing.
The problem gets worse.
1st step: Don't do that!
"The fact that we must do something is no excuse to do something stupid." -- Slim Fairview.
The Zero-Sum game is no longer viable. It is a deadly game.
Let us review.
The Source
The Quantity
The Quality
The Control
The Allocation
The Demand
And, of course, the Validation.
Bon Chance.
Slim
slimfairview@yahoo.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
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