The Middle East. Problem? Solution!

The Middle East

With approximately 5,000 years of wisdom and culture to build upon, the question is not, what is happening in the Middle East, the question is why?

I ask this question not from the Western Perspective. We had our revolution. The French have Bastille Day. The English have Runnymede.

While the American style government may not suit the people in the Middle East (The Arabs don’t want Western Government, The Arabs want Western Freedom.), and while citing The English may be poor salesmanship, there must be something within the Arab culture and history that will allow a peaceful transition into the future that is preferable to the efforts now being made to change the course of history.

It seems axiomatic. You can change the course of history but you cannot stop history from happening. You cannot stand in the way of history. It is coming. The conundrum: you won’t know what happened until it does.

Now, you can say, “You cannot predict the future.” However, that is not an appropriate rebuff to the person who says, “Get off the tracks, the train is coming.”

Then, too, there is the failed policy of shooting the messenger.

All this begs the question, ‘What can be done to smooth the transition?”

Arab leaders working from a propter hoc position. (Because of the fact that there is no immediate precedent for what is happening in the Middle East.)

Each leader, each nation, is attempting to come to an understanding of what is going on in his nation, with his people and how best to respond? True, there are religious differences. There are different economic circumstances. There are different global alliances—both historical and expedient. This, however, ignores the old saying; the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

Leaders of all the Middle East nations would do well to follow the example of some of the Middle East nations. That example would be to have a conclave (A Private Meeting) of the Leaders of the Middle East nations and the Reform Movement Leaders. Look to a nation like Turkey to host the meeting.

Remember:

The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.

Omar Khayyám

Regards,

Slim

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

The Fallacy of U.S. Diplomacy in Libya

The Fallacy of U.S. Diplomacy in Libya

Slim Fairview’s Four Rules of Communication:

1. Precision

2. Concision

3. Enumerate

4. Specify

The Fallacy of U.S. Diplomacy in Libya. Review the following questions and answers to arrive at a conclusion if not an understanding of how we undermine our own efforts in the Middle East and Northern Africa.

A. We can't arm the rebels because the rebels may be a greater danger.

More so than Gaddafi? Yes? No? If yes, we wouldn’t be there. If no, then arm the rebels.

B. We can’t arm the rebels because the arms may fall into the hands of our enemies.

If the rebels are our enemies, our other enemies will arm the rebels. If our enemies did not arm the rebels, then the rebels are not our enemies.

C. We can’t arm the rebels because the rebels may be our enemy.

If we don’t arm the rebels, others will. If others arm the rebels, the rebels will be their friends not ours.

[Write one thousand times: The friend of my enemy is my enemy. The enemy of the enemy is my friend.]

D. Al Qaeda members may be in Libya.

Al Qaeda members may be anywhere. That does not justify not doing anything anywhere.

E. Let’s talk about the mission. Let’s not.

What we have is regime change under the guise of humanitarian aid.

Getting rid of Gaddafi is not regime change.

Talking about Gaddafi’s sons is not regime change.

F. What will we be getting into if we don’t have regime change?

We won’t be getting into anything. We will have what we’ve had all along

G. What will happen if Gaddafi leaves?

Nothing if we define Gaddafi leaving as regime change.

H. What will happen if the rebels win and take over Libya?

We will fail at yet another diplomatic mission. Why?

To understand why, answer this question:

What happens if the rebels win and the Tribal Leaders decide to form a government where a ruling council runs Libya: a ruling council where the Tribal Leaders choose members of the Ruling Council? 

We are not equipped to establish diplomatic relations with a country where the people fought a revolution to gain freedom and established a government not consistent with our perspective of governments.

Regards,

Slim

PS.

I am not Paul Harvey.  However, I am open to becoming a paid commentator, columnist, or blogger. If you’ve found anything I said to be helpful, please don’t hesitate to send me one of those tricked-out laptops and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.

Sincerest regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

For further reading on Social Media Matters

Quill Pens and Powdered Wigs in Today’s Classrooms

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/quill-pens-and-powdered-wigs-in-todays.html

Social Media is the Medium: Greater than the sum of its parts.

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/social-media-is-medium-greater-than-sum.html

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

Will the FB Revolution Spread to China? Part 2--Credentialism

Will the Facebook Revolution Spread to China? Part 2--Credentialism

Today, everyone has credentials. Things are not visibly better, but the experts have credentials to explain the problems they were not able to foresee, to prevent, or to fix.

Much of that comes from what is easily discernible: much of what they write is descriptive and not prescriptive. Why do they write it? As Samuel Johnson once said, "None but a blockhead writes except for money."

Now, why talk about credentials? It is a follow up to my monograph entitled "Distortions of graphic proportions." The posting includes a bar graph that purports to show how images are used to distort the facts. This monograph will explain how the exclusion of some facts is used to distort others.

Case in point.

The pundits (experts) have said that what happened in Egypt could happen in China. They said that the Chinese government is worried. Other experts pointed out that the difference in the per capita income between China and Egypt made a Facebook revolution unlikely. Then came the unpleasant situation in Bahrain.

Now the experts are saying that the high per capita income in Bahrain repudiates those who said a Facebook revolution in China is unlikely. Their reasoning? The per capita income in Bahrain. And that is where the substance of their reasoned argument ends.

First of all, consensus among the pundits is that in Bahrain you have a majority group living in a nation governed by a minority group. To put that in U.S. terms: Imagine a nation where 8 million Methodists are governed by 2 Million Lutherans.

This situation does not exist in China. The Chinese people are Chinese. Full stop.

Second, you have the type of money as well as the amount of money to consider. Here is a metaphor.

Pretend I own a 10-unit apartment building in a modest community. I rent each out for $500 a month. I live in one of the units. I make $4,500 a month. Pretend you are an architect. You get hired by a development company to gentrify my community. My property goes up in value. I now rent out my apartments for $1,500 a month. In addition, I moved into one of the fancy new apartment buildings. I now receive $15,000 a month in income. I pay $3,000 a month rent
in an upscale building and receive $12,000 a month in income.

You, however, as an architect earn about $80,000 a year. You are not satisfied with your earnings. You decide to renegotiate your contract. While that is happening, you are not working. While you are not working, 100 bricklayers are not working. If they don't work, they don't eat.

The owner of the building has two choices. Fire you and put 100 bricklayers back to work, or negotiate with you while 100 bricklayers have nothing to do and nothing to eat. Guess what? You lose your job.

You make an income by doing what you do. I make an income by what I own. I make an increased income by what you do. If you stop doing your job, my income stagnates but the bricklayers' income ceases.

Now, let's go to China. China's wealth arises from the efforts of the Chinese people. The Chinese people make a higher per capita income than the Egyptian people. The Chinese people make a higher per capita income by the way the Chinese people earn their income.

Back to my apartment building. If we assume that I have a history of being my own superintendent; mowing the lawn, fixing leaky faucets, vacuuming the carpets, polishing the floor in the lobby, I can cut my operating expenses and increase my earnings. However, when the value of my building goes up, I can hire a superintendent to do the work for me. I can still make an increased income. You, as an architect, must continue to be an architect to continue earning a living.

Will the Facebook revolution extend to China? Probably not. The question of per capita income is only a part of the consideration. The source of the income is also a consideration. The demographics are a third consideration.

Regards,

Slim

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Monographs: Understanding the Future of the Middle East

To Cover the Subject of The Middle East

For a better understanding of what is going on in the Middle East, ask the question: "Will the Facebook Revolution Spread to China? Probably Not."
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/will-facebook-revolution-spread-to.html

However, there is more to understanding the shift in the paradigm of Global Affairs with respect to the Middle East.

Transnational Business: From Distopistan to Netopistan.
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/tansnational-business-from-distopistan.html

What is to Come in The Middle East
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-to-come-in-middle-east.html

Egypt and the Failure of Global Diplomacy
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/egypt-and-failure-of-global-diplomacy.html

The Business of Egypt is Business
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/business-of-egypt-is-business.html

Regards,

Slim

Mail Slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) Slim Fairview 2011

What is to Come in the Middle East

What is to come in the Middle East.

Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. Santayana

Those who never learned history are doomed—period. Slim Fairview

What is going on?

We’ve watched history unfold by way of anamnesis.

Most of us can remember, “The Sun never sets on the British Empire”. It collapsed for various reasons, but collapsed non-the-less. India, Canada, Hong Kong, Australia, National Public Television, Scotland….

We watched what Ronald Reagan once referred to as the Evil Empire collapse. Actually, one-by-one, two-by-two, Eastern block satellite-nations fell from orbit.

At first, the British expanded their empire. Then, those who lived under the British Raj, along with others living in nations of the empire, evolved to a metaphorical awareness analogous to the awareness made available by the internet today. They freed themselves from foreign rule.

After World War II, the Soviet Union expanded into Eastern Europe. Soon: five-hundred million people ground beneath the boot-heel of communist military occupation. It wasn’t long before the people of Eastern Europe liberated themselves—the result of watching the Soviet influence wither. Today, even Russia is no longer occupied by the communists’ forces.

Today, we have the internet. First, the Tunisian people rose up. Then, the Egyptian people rose up. All throughout the Middle East, we can see the events of change unfolding before our eyes. Still, we discuss the events rather than acknowledge them. Just as Iran extolled the actions of the people of Egypt, is it impossible that people in Arab nations saw large tea party demonstrations? Is it impossible that people in Arab nations were aware of the change in our House of Representatives? A change heralded as the largest shift in power in 39 years.

To understand what other people understand, it is necessary to understand propaganda. Do you remember Antigone, heralded, perhaps, by Sophocles? She was put to death for burying her brother in defiance of the law. However, do you remember Antigone, heralded by Anouilh? She was the spirit of the French resistance when France was occupied by the Nazis. During occupation, books had to be approved by the Nazi censors before they could be published. Why did the Nazi censors approve the publishing of Antigone? To show the people what happens to those who defy authority. What was the result? There are no unintended consequences. Only unwanted consequences.

World leaders, who may have extolled the Tea-Party movement as an example of unrest in America prompted by the peoples’ dissatisfaction with America’s government, with the American way of living, could not have predicted what would come. People who’ve extolled the Egyptian people for their rising up against their government, an ally of the United States, probably did not predict that their own people would say, “Hey, I’ve got an idea.”

Then, there is the internet. The Blogosphere. Netopia. Not Laptopistan as is was referred to in the New York Times. Laptopistan refers to the people with their laptops. Netopia refers to a virtual land that really does exist. Like the wind, you cannot see it. You can only see and feel its effects.

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/01/egypt-and-others-new-world-order-world.html

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/01/internet-disconnect-no.html

Regards,

Slim

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview