The Failure of US Diplomacy in the Middle East 3.0

The impending failure of Western Diplomacy discussed in the previous monograph on the topic is now focused on the US.

Few people analyse a situation as it is. Most interpret the situation in a way that best helps their agenda.

Here is an analogy. The math analogy plays well to America’s position in international testing among school students.

With global relations, the dispute is not that 10 x 10 = 100. Upon that, we can all agree. However, when the teacher poses the question to her class and Billy responds 99, we break into two camps. One camp says that 99 is 99% correct. The other camp says that 99 is 100% wrong. Neither side realises that Billy does not understand arithmetic.

We are so focused on the American paradigm that we lack the ability to grasp the concept of what we are dealing with.

In the previous monograph, I said that we assume that the Arab Spring will result in a region of Pro-Western democracies. In 1776, we had a revolution. We built a democracy. We assume the same will hold true for the Middle East. We simply do not allow, for example, that Libya will be a country run by ruling councils.

Let us assume, however, for the purposes of discussion, that there is a wave of revolutionary fervor throughout the Middle East. Let us assume further, that there are a dozen democracies. Why should we then assume that the democracies would become our allies and trading partners?

The problem with Western Diplomacy is that it is a product of Western Diplomacy. Perhaps we are attempting to celebrate the success of Ben Franklin, Ambassador to France—200 years ago. The conundrum? The Middle East is not France.

We have decided, over the past several decades, that we will treat people the way we want to be treated. Nothing wrong with that if we want to be treated with respect. The simplistic solution is to treat people with respect and we will be respected. The problem with that is that different people define respect in different terms.

“If we were more concerned with being respectable and dignified, we would be more often treated with dignity and respect.” Slim Fairview.

Libya is not Egypt. Syria is not Libya.

I’d said, on previous occaision, that we are not fighting three wars in the Middle East. We are not fighting two wars in the Middle East. We are fighting one war in the Middle East. I was wrong. The war we are fighting is with ourselves.

If the Arab Spring spreads to other nations, those nations may very well form a Middle Eastern Diplomatic Union. (Thing of The European Union except with more money, less debt.)

There might not be an OPEC style union but rather a free-market union. One with the Union Members’ self-interest as the cornerstone. Not an ideological self-interest, not a theological self-interest, but rather an economic self-interest. Are we prepared for another “front”? Financially? Economically?

View our immigration policies. We are disputing immigration reform. The two sides of the issue are the interests of the immigrants and our national self-interest. (Economic and Security) We applaud our munificence. However, almost all of the immigrants come from countries with relatively few freedoms and with poor economic conditions. We completely ignore the fact that the immigration rise can be attributed to the conditions in the countries from which the immigrants emigrate. We help a few thousand while a few million continue to suffer. We hurt many and help few.

We’ve had a history of embracing these failed polices: The pursuit of symbolic gestures over substantive gains. Here are some examples from the past 60 years.

Penal reform in the late 50’ and early 60’s intended to reduce recidivism in our prisons resulted in a rise in crime and a rise in the prison population.

Parole reform, intended to reduce recidivism resulted in a rise in crime and a rise in the prison population.

We repeatedly attempted to tax our way to prosperity. Then we attempt to cut the programmes the money is being spent on.

Add to that the fact that we’ve outsourced jobs to cut costs to increase corporate profits to stay in business. The result? We’ve put our American customers out of work here at home. The result? The American customer can’t afford to buy our products. The result? Lower sales. The result? Lower corporate profits.

What will happen if the Middle Eastern nations form a Diplomatic Union? They will go into the free market. China is becoming an increasingly more profitable customer. Latin America is emerging from economic turmoil to economic growth. Can anyone see a symbiotic relationship between the Middle East (oil), China (money), and Latin America (expanding markets)?

We don’t need to rethink our Middle Eastern Diplomatic relationships. We need to learn how to do business globally.

For additional reading:

The G-20 in Good Times and Bad

http://www.slideshare.net/slimfairview/the-g-20-in-good-times-and-bad-5802178

Global Management: A shift in the paradigm of corporate America.

http://www.slideshare.net/slimfairview/global-management-5415780

The impending Failure of Western Diplomacy in the Middle East.

http://www.slideshare.net/slimfairview/the-impending-failure-of-western-diplomacy-in-the-middle-east

The Fallacy of US Diplomacy in Libya

http://www.slideshare.net/slimfairview/the-fallacy-of-us-diplomacy-in-libya

Social Media is the Medium: Greater than the sum of its parts.

http://www.slideshare.net/slimfairview/social-media-is-the-medium

Regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

The Fallacy of U.S. Diplomacy in Libya

The Fallacy of U.S. Diplomacy in Libya

Slim Fairview’s Four Rules of Communication:

1. Precision

2. Concision

3. Enumerate

4. Specify

The Fallacy of U.S. Diplomacy in Libya. Review the following questions and answers to arrive at a conclusion if not an understanding of how we undermine our own efforts in the Middle East and Northern Africa.

A. We can't arm the rebels because the rebels may be a greater danger.

More so than Gaddafi? Yes? No? If yes, we wouldn’t be there. If no, then arm the rebels.

B. We can’t arm the rebels because the arms may fall into the hands of our enemies.

If the rebels are our enemies, our other enemies will arm the rebels. If our enemies did not arm the rebels, then the rebels are not our enemies.

C. We can’t arm the rebels because the rebels may be our enemy.

If we don’t arm the rebels, others will. If others arm the rebels, the rebels will be their friends not ours.

[Write one thousand times: The friend of my enemy is my enemy. The enemy of the enemy is my friend.]

D. Al Qaeda members may be in Libya.

Al Qaeda members may be anywhere. That does not justify not doing anything anywhere.

E. Let’s talk about the mission. Let’s not.

What we have is regime change under the guise of humanitarian aid.

Getting rid of Gaddafi is not regime change.

Talking about Gaddafi’s sons is not regime change.

F. What will we be getting into if we don’t have regime change?

We won’t be getting into anything. We will have what we’ve had all along

G. What will happen if Gaddafi leaves?

Nothing if we define Gaddafi leaving as regime change.

H. What will happen if the rebels win and take over Libya?

We will fail at yet another diplomatic mission. Why?

To understand why, answer this question:

What happens if the rebels win and the Tribal Leaders decide to form a government where a ruling council runs Libya: a ruling council where the Tribal Leaders choose members of the Ruling Council? 

We are not equipped to establish diplomatic relations with a country where the people fought a revolution to gain freedom and established a government not consistent with our perspective of governments.

Regards,

Slim

PS.

I am not Paul Harvey.  However, I am open to becoming a paid commentator, columnist, or blogger. If you’ve found anything I said to be helpful, please don’t hesitate to send me one of those tricked-out laptops and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.

Sincerest regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

For further reading on Social Media Matters

Quill Pens and Powdered Wigs in Today’s Classrooms

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/quill-pens-and-powdered-wigs-in-todays.html

Social Media is the Medium: Greater than the sum of its parts.

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/03/social-media-is-medium-greater-than-sum.html

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

Will the FB Revolution Spread to China? Part 2--Credentialism

Will the Facebook Revolution Spread to China? Part 2--Credentialism

Today, everyone has credentials. Things are not visibly better, but the experts have credentials to explain the problems they were not able to foresee, to prevent, or to fix.

Much of that comes from what is easily discernible: much of what they write is descriptive and not prescriptive. Why do they write it? As Samuel Johnson once said, "None but a blockhead writes except for money."

Now, why talk about credentials? It is a follow up to my monograph entitled "Distortions of graphic proportions." The posting includes a bar graph that purports to show how images are used to distort the facts. This monograph will explain how the exclusion of some facts is used to distort others.

Case in point.

The pundits (experts) have said that what happened in Egypt could happen in China. They said that the Chinese government is worried. Other experts pointed out that the difference in the per capita income between China and Egypt made a Facebook revolution unlikely. Then came the unpleasant situation in Bahrain.

Now the experts are saying that the high per capita income in Bahrain repudiates those who said a Facebook revolution in China is unlikely. Their reasoning? The per capita income in Bahrain. And that is where the substance of their reasoned argument ends.

First of all, consensus among the pundits is that in Bahrain you have a majority group living in a nation governed by a minority group. To put that in U.S. terms: Imagine a nation where 8 million Methodists are governed by 2 Million Lutherans.

This situation does not exist in China. The Chinese people are Chinese. Full stop.

Second, you have the type of money as well as the amount of money to consider. Here is a metaphor.

Pretend I own a 10-unit apartment building in a modest community. I rent each out for $500 a month. I live in one of the units. I make $4,500 a month. Pretend you are an architect. You get hired by a development company to gentrify my community. My property goes up in value. I now rent out my apartments for $1,500 a month. In addition, I moved into one of the fancy new apartment buildings. I now receive $15,000 a month in income. I pay $3,000 a month rent
in an upscale building and receive $12,000 a month in income.

You, however, as an architect earn about $80,000 a year. You are not satisfied with your earnings. You decide to renegotiate your contract. While that is happening, you are not working. While you are not working, 100 bricklayers are not working. If they don't work, they don't eat.

The owner of the building has two choices. Fire you and put 100 bricklayers back to work, or negotiate with you while 100 bricklayers have nothing to do and nothing to eat. Guess what? You lose your job.

You make an income by doing what you do. I make an income by what I own. I make an increased income by what you do. If you stop doing your job, my income stagnates but the bricklayers' income ceases.

Now, let's go to China. China's wealth arises from the efforts of the Chinese people. The Chinese people make a higher per capita income than the Egyptian people. The Chinese people make a higher per capita income by the way the Chinese people earn their income.

Back to my apartment building. If we assume that I have a history of being my own superintendent; mowing the lawn, fixing leaky faucets, vacuuming the carpets, polishing the floor in the lobby, I can cut my operating expenses and increase my earnings. However, when the value of my building goes up, I can hire a superintendent to do the work for me. I can still make an increased income. You, as an architect, must continue to be an architect to continue earning a living.

Will the Facebook revolution extend to China? Probably not. The question of per capita income is only a part of the consideration. The source of the income is also a consideration. The demographics are a third consideration.

Regards,

Slim

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Monographs: Understanding the Future of the Middle East

To Cover the Subject of The Middle East

For a better understanding of what is going on in the Middle East, ask the question: "Will the Facebook Revolution Spread to China? Probably Not."
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/will-facebook-revolution-spread-to.html

However, there is more to understanding the shift in the paradigm of Global Affairs with respect to the Middle East.

Transnational Business: From Distopistan to Netopistan.
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/tansnational-business-from-distopistan.html

What is to Come in The Middle East
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-is-to-come-in-middle-east.html

Egypt and the Failure of Global Diplomacy
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/egypt-and-failure-of-global-diplomacy.html

The Business of Egypt is Business
http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/02/business-of-egypt-is-business.html

Regards,

Slim

Mail Slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) Slim Fairview 2011

Transnational Business: From Distopistan to Netopistan

To: Fellow Linkedin member:

Perhaps Mr. _________ is seeking the collective input to help him to address the changes he will have to make in his strategy as a consultant in Egypt. He can, if he chooses, find opportunities here for Business leaders who did not read my ppt. presentation Global Management, a shift in the paradigm of corporate America.

More to the point, We will create a metaphor.

Hey, Mr. Big American Company Guy, you can no longer rely on the Big Company Guys of Distopistan who are protected by the Distopistanian Army because the King of Distopistan makes big bucks (through private transactions) via The Big Company of Distopistan.

Distopistan is in the midst of change. Tomorrow, the King of Distopistan will be gone. Tomorrow the country will be Netopistan. The Netopian Nation is now an ally. To do business in Netopistan (Formerly Distopistan) you will have to connect with the Netopian people.

"How do we do that?" asks the Big American Company Guy.

Answer:

Meet with _________ _________. He will teach you how to do business in the New World Order. A world without borders. (unabashedly lifted from and alluding to my blog which coincidentally goes by the url http://slimviews.blogspot.com

Regards,

Slim
Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

P.S. Mr. ________. Carpe Punctum. And good luck.

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

What is to Come in the Middle East

What is to come in the Middle East.

Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. Santayana

Those who never learned history are doomed—period. Slim Fairview

What is going on?

We’ve watched history unfold by way of anamnesis.

Most of us can remember, “The Sun never sets on the British Empire”. It collapsed for various reasons, but collapsed non-the-less. India, Canada, Hong Kong, Australia, National Public Television, Scotland….

We watched what Ronald Reagan once referred to as the Evil Empire collapse. Actually, one-by-one, two-by-two, Eastern block satellite-nations fell from orbit.

At first, the British expanded their empire. Then, those who lived under the British Raj, along with others living in nations of the empire, evolved to a metaphorical awareness analogous to the awareness made available by the internet today. They freed themselves from foreign rule.

After World War II, the Soviet Union expanded into Eastern Europe. Soon: five-hundred million people ground beneath the boot-heel of communist military occupation. It wasn’t long before the people of Eastern Europe liberated themselves—the result of watching the Soviet influence wither. Today, even Russia is no longer occupied by the communists’ forces.

Today, we have the internet. First, the Tunisian people rose up. Then, the Egyptian people rose up. All throughout the Middle East, we can see the events of change unfolding before our eyes. Still, we discuss the events rather than acknowledge them. Just as Iran extolled the actions of the people of Egypt, is it impossible that people in Arab nations saw large tea party demonstrations? Is it impossible that people in Arab nations were aware of the change in our House of Representatives? A change heralded as the largest shift in power in 39 years.

To understand what other people understand, it is necessary to understand propaganda. Do you remember Antigone, heralded, perhaps, by Sophocles? She was put to death for burying her brother in defiance of the law. However, do you remember Antigone, heralded by Anouilh? She was the spirit of the French resistance when France was occupied by the Nazis. During occupation, books had to be approved by the Nazi censors before they could be published. Why did the Nazi censors approve the publishing of Antigone? To show the people what happens to those who defy authority. What was the result? There are no unintended consequences. Only unwanted consequences.

World leaders, who may have extolled the Tea-Party movement as an example of unrest in America prompted by the peoples’ dissatisfaction with America’s government, with the American way of living, could not have predicted what would come. People who’ve extolled the Egyptian people for their rising up against their government, an ally of the United States, probably did not predict that their own people would say, “Hey, I’ve got an idea.”

Then, there is the internet. The Blogosphere. Netopia. Not Laptopistan as is was referred to in the New York Times. Laptopistan refers to the people with their laptops. Netopia refers to a virtual land that really does exist. Like the wind, you cannot see it. You can only see and feel its effects.

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/01/egypt-and-others-new-world-order-world.html

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/01/internet-disconnect-no.html

Regards,

Slim

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

The Business of Egypt is Business

Yesterday, the business of Egypt was Egypt. Today, the business of Egypt is business.

For the revolution to be a lasting success, the Egyptian people have to focus on the economy, on jobs, on education, and on the infrastructure: Electricity, roads, trains, broadcasting, and a stable government.

This is not accomplished by embracing ideology.

For a start: "Free Enterprise. It works when you do."

Egypt: Now looking for global management specialists, business development specialists, new market developers, (dare I say it) Human Resources Managers, R&D Specialist, IT managers.

The Egyptian people need jobs!

Let's hope The Egyptians promotes from within before they are exploited by carpetbaggers. 'You gotta know the territory...’

Did anyone say, Professor Harold Hill?

Bon chance,

Slim

Mail: mailto:Slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

Egypt and the Failure of Global Diplomacy

Egypt and the Failure of Global Diplomacy

It is simplistic to say that the situation in Egypt is for the Egyptians to resolve. This, because we are global community. To complicate matters, different countries have different cultural norms. To complicate matters further, efforts to understand the cultural norms of other countries routinely involve explaining “our” culture to others rather than asking others to offer us insight into their cultures.

Now, to diplomacy.

The Egyptian people have called for the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. They have stated their resolve not to leave The Square until he resigns. They have issued a fait accompli.

President Mubarak has stated he will not resign as President. In effect, he has issued a fait accompli.

We have called for President Mubarak to step down. We did so publicly.

We can focus on the Egyptian Constitution and the constraints it places on all parties. We can also focus on the remarks by the pundits and analysts to the effect that our failure to support President Mubarak will cause other allies to be concerned about our fidelity. No one, however, has addressed the issue of “loss of face”.

For the Egyptian people to recant their demands, they will suffer what the world knows to be “loss of face”. For President Mubarak to capitulate to the demands of the protestors will result in his suffering “loss of face”. Then there is the American position—stated publicly.

We became Pontius Pilate the moment we entered the fracas.

If the Egyptian people do not prevail, there will be bitterness among the Egyptian people. By extension, if this is attributed to our support for President Mubarak, there will also be a bitterness shared by all who looked to us as a symbol of freedom.

However, if the Egyptian people do prevail, if President Mubarak does step down, it will do more that cause concern among our allies with respect to our willingness to support them. 1.3 billion Chinese people will see that we have caused President Mubarak to lose face. 1.3 billion Chinese will wonder when we will cause their leader to lose face. This question will be asked by people all around the world.

Rather than regard America as supporters of the Egyptian people, people around the world will see America as the betrayer of the Egyptian peoples’ leader. This, notwithstanding the call by the Egyptian people for President Mubarak to resign.

Lastly, if we recant our position, our global status and stature will suffer.

What to do?

The best possible way to resolve the problem is for the United States to defer to a neutral third party nation who will meet, PRIVATELY, with both the leaders of the Egyptian people and with the Egyptian leaders. Yes, there is a difference. This is not to suggest that the U.S. should not be present at the table. After all, Egypt and The United States are allies and have been for a long time. However, we should not head this delegation.

This neutral third party nation will be able to help both the Egyptian people and the Egyptian government under President Mubarak, to resolve the contretemps in a matter that will avoid humiliation and mitigate rather than propagate enmities.

Regards,

Slim

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

Egypt and Others--A New World Order: A World without Borders

 

New World Order: A World without Borders

The real problem is our lack of understanding of the concept of what is going on globally. The younger generation is no longer embracing the customs of the past. What are the customs of the past? For one thing, embracing the customs of the past.

 

One thing that is very important to understand if we are to get along with the rest of the world. Many cultures have 3,000; 4,000…6,000 years of history, custom, and culture to look back on. We have a bit over 200. This creates a major difference between Americans and, for example, the Egyptians, The Chinese, The Japanese, and so on.

On the other hand, the aforementioned youth culture is very similar to American culture in that both they and we are “forward looking.” As we cannot look to a long past, we long for a future that will.

As this pertains to Egypt, we are in a unique position to understand the Egyptian people. (Did someone say, 1776?)

Both America and the Middle East were part of a Colonial Empire. But wait! There’s more!

In what is known in some parts of the world as the Colonial Rebellion of 1776, we had aid from France and, that by extension, the French people. We did not look upon France as the enemy because they supplied us with weapons. We looked upon France as a nation that aided us in battle. Much the same way America has aided the Egyptian people in their government’s efforts to protect the Egyptian people from enemy soldiers.

Thus, as evidenced by the protests around America, the American people have a shared perspective with the Egyptian people. (This does cause me to wonder why Americans in Egypt would be afraid. I want to believe that the Egyptian people see the American people as people who share in a belief.)

Hence:

The blogosphere is a world without borders; Facebook is a world without borders; Twitter is a world without borders. Linkedin is a world without borders; SlideShare is a world without borders, and, the new generation is a generation of a nation without borders.

We now have a world where emerging nations are no longer define the way I defined them on my ppt. presentation only three months ago. Global Management: A shift in the paradigm of corporate America at http://slideshare.net/

I touched on some aspects of the new way of doing business from a global perspective but failed to see the absence of the borders in the new world. The technosphere. The following links are to very short monographs related to the above topic.

The Next Generation: Better Than Brand New

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2010/12/next-generation-better-than-brand-new.html

Managing Projects in the New Millennium

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2010/09/managing-projects-in-new-millennium.html

The New Age Biz Wiz

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2010/04/new-age-biz-wiz.html

Project Management of the –Oops! Gotta Run

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/01/project-management-of-oops-gotta-run.html

The new, the young, the future, is a world where communication is instantaneously global. Questions asked an answered in moments.

Enough said? No. Enough said!

Regards,

Slim

eMail: mailto:slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview