The Paradox of Cobb's Paradox

Needless to say, I Googled Cobb's Paradox.

My first impression is that it is based on the assumption that we know why projects fail.

Assuming we do know why projects fail, do we know why this project failed?

Assuming that we know why this project failed, could we have known why this project would have failed.

Assuming that we know why this project would have failed, was there anything we could have done about it?

Assuming that we know why this project will fail, is there anything we can do about it?

Assuming we know why this project will fail, why do we go ahead with the project?

Here is the real paradox:

Knowing that we know Cobb's Paradox, and assuming it is valid, why do we continue to discuss Cobb's Paradox?

Knowing that we know Cobb's Paradox, and assuming it is invalid, why do we continue to discuss Cobb's Paradox?

Discuss.

Regards,

Slim

ps. This material will be on the final exam.

Mail Slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Time-Management Time Again, Folks.

The boss has been given the responsibility of fixing the problems caused by his lack of qualification to manage.

The boss hires a time management consultant.

The consultant give the presentation. The consultant hands out Day-timers. (Or whatever is now fashionable. Everyone engages in much upbeat chatter about how positive they all feel about what they've learned.

It doesn't work.

The Boss puts pressure on the employees.

"The company paid for that programme to help you."

"There is no I in team."

"People, we have to co-operate. We all have to work together to succeed."

"Success comes in cans not can'ts."


The real problems are never solved. Things do not get better. The boss blames the employees.

The employees try to explain what the real problems are.

The boss says, "Don't play the blame game."

The whole time-management thing is scrapped. (Some of the problems do resolve themselves.)

Then, 20 years later, I clicked onto a discussion about time-management.

Repeat as needed.

Let's get together in 20 years to discuss it again.

Sincerely,

Slim

mail slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Social Media is the Medium: Greater than the sum of their parts.

Social Media is the Medium: Greater than the sum of its parts.

How do you do it? Never mind. The real question is, “How will you be doing it?”

Some slow thinkers say, “Soon, tomorrow will be here.” The quick folk say, “Soon, tomorrow will be gone.”

Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, Blogspot, and SlideShare.

What do they all have in common besides each other? They are greater than the sum of their parts.

Write something. Save the document. Post it on your blog, on Facebook, on Slideshare. Click the links to share what you’ve written. They go to your Twitter account with a link to click that will take readers to your monograph.

If you’ve posted a document on SlideShare, the link will not only appear on the wall of your Facebook page, but there will be an option for you to choose that will allow a “thumbnail” of the document to appear. If a visitor to your Facebook page clicks the graphic, up pops the document.

Links will automatically appear on the home page of Linkedin—but wait, there’s more:

That document has provisions for links. These links will send your reader to supporting documents—and that’s still not all.

The printed word is now a global event no longer limited to the familiar and ever popular website.

The printed word is now appearing on the internet.

Publications, which include but are not limited to The New York Times, The Boston Globe, Atlantic Monthly, The Wall Street Journal, The Telegraph, and others, are now on the internet.

Many of the articles invite commentary. It is there, that your brief thoughts can invite readers to view a more comprehensive expression of your opinions. Now, this is fine; however, there are business applications as well.

Websites like Linkedin offer the opportunity to create a global network of business colleagues.

Moreover, we’ve barely scratched the surface. Yesterday, I posted PowerPoint presentations on SlideShare. Yesterday, I should have been posting videos on YouTube.

These tools are the virtual offices in use. They are in use globally.

Virtual offices, virtual teams, virtual project management, presentations, lectures, speeches, meetings, all on your computer screen.

If you have a Mac, they are available to you in transit. If using a Mac is not an option, they are available to you on your iPad or your iPhone.

Meetings will not so much be detested by the members of your staff who have work to do, but more efficiently handled by logging on to a virtual meeting.

Documents, photos, contacts, and other information will be shared within seconds. No one will find it necessary (and cumbersome) to lug stuff to the conference room.

Costs will be cut significantly by having information available through links rather than through copies being handed out.

The business research formerly the domain of the business research department, is now a Google away.

Information can be reviewed, commented on, verified, questioned and affirmed, repudiated, or assigned for further review in moments.

Prep work for the meeting will take place in moments.

The tools that are available are not limited to home and office. Nor to your company, industry, or locale.

These tools will enable you to do business globally. I posted two PowerPoint presentations:

Global Management: A shift in the paradigm of corporate America

&

The Future of the G – 20 in Good Times and Bad.

Each can be viewed at http://slideshare.net/slimfairview

For additional information:

http://facebook.com

http://blogspot.com

http://linkedin.com

http://twitter.com

For more monographs on management and business administration, please visit my blog: http://slimviews.blogspot.com
 

PS.  I am not Paul Harvey.  However, I am open to becoming a paid commentator, columnist, or blogger.

If you’ve found anything I said to be helpful, please don’t hesitate to send me one of those tricked-out laptops and to tuck a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note.

Sincerest regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

PPS. I forgot to mention the email option: slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

The Latest Trend in Management

Hiring a Hiring Manager. Or not. The Latest Trend in Management

"If you have no skills as a hiring manager, the solution is simple. Hire the best people available whether you like it or not." Slim Fairview

The boss should not be the super-person. The boss should be the super-worker.

Not the ubermenschen but rather the “uber-arbeitskraft“

Back in the day when I was going to write the great American novel, I took a holiday job in the packing and shipping department of an upscale company.

First the department got back up and my supervisor’s boss came in to put things right. We were soon backed up again. This time the VP came in to find out, “What do we have to do to get things caught up?” My boss looked at me. The VP looked at me. The next day I had a packing and shipping operation up and running.

What made my operation run so efficiently? I took advantage of my position as a supervisor to move up and down the line to bring the different stages of the operation into sync with the process. I could prepare product for packaging, I could box the product, and I could set up boxes for packing, and so on. Wherever my team needed help keeping up, I joined that stage of the process.

This is missing from the many admonitions to managers, young and old.

A good analogy for management would be to compare the experience of a substitute teacher to that of trying to herd cats. The fallacy of wisdom is that if you show up with a bag full of tuna sandwiches, the cats will embrace a common goal: tuna for lunch. Then reality strikes. One cat goes off in search of a jar of gherkins, another for a bag of chips, and another for a napkin. A smart boss knows that tuna fish sandwiches are not going to solve all the problems; and neither will a common goal. We may all agree on the destination, but we won’t all agree on the best route to get there.

Here is the conundrum: There may not be one right way or one best way. However, we do have to travel together—or not. These are the challenges. Different managers may have different views. Different team members may have different views; and, in addition, just as there may be no one right or wrong way to get to our destination, so there may not be one right or wrong way to manage. We cannot always have consensus either.

The biggest problem is the one size fits all philosophy of management instruction. Another, is the fact that employees come to the table with the notion that one style of management may be better than or worse than another style. (After all, how many employees attended the all-day seminar? How many employees have the three-fold brochure? They cannot be tricked or bullied into accepting a style of management that is not suitable. Suitable to whom? That is another question.

Today, management is being bullied into accepting one form of management as being superiour to another. Employees, team members, are convinced that one method of management is superiour to another. Imagine everyone’s surprise when the tables are turned.

Management has become a victim to trends in management. The latest trend will work if everyone on the team believes that he or she is benefiting from the latest, the newest, and the best that the consulting industry has to offer.

Dr. Henry Kissinger once said of fame, “You still bore people, but they think it’s their fault.”

Let’s not fall prey to the latest trend in management style and technique.

“Style never goes out of fashion, but fashion always goes out of style.”

Regards,

Slim

For additional material, read Ceo the Executive, or The Executive’s New Clothes.

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2010/08/ceo-executive-or-executives-new-clothes.html

Mail. slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

Book Agent

I am looking for an agent to represent my two non-fiction efforts:

The Quotations of Slim Fairview

and the book I am assembling on management.

Anyone with an interest, please contact me.

mail: slimfairview@yahoo.com

Regards,

Slim

India 2.0 The Future is Today

That India is a technological leader, not marching but rather moving smoothly and swiftly into the future, is seldom a matter for dispute. In fact, it is not really discussed but simply assumed as the conversation progresses.

Still, as with any country or economy, there are adjustments to be made in the economics of a country's economy.

The issue of food is uppermost on the minds of the people of India. In a previous monograph, I referred to increased supply. A literal understanding would be counter productive. The issue is not resolved by saying, "Grow more food." However, if we were to discuss the issue from that statement, we would have to ask, "Do the same number of farmers increase their output, or do we need an increase in the number of farmers?" A subtext would involve farmers joining to take advantage of economies to scale, and form large farms. (Remember, the absence of primogeniture caused the collapse of pre Soviet Russia. The absence of private ownership led to the collapse of post-Czarist Russia. Conclusion: many small farms don't satisfy the need; collective farming won't solve the problem.

The first issue to address is that India has a culture of co-operation. This will serve India well as time marches on. However, on the question of supply, we are not simply suggesting more food for today; but a stable supply of food for a foreseeable future.

Two problems indicated in recent reports from the media are that

1. India cannot get food to the market. It rots before it can be sold or eaten; and 2. That the fluctuation in food prices in a largely agricultural nation has a greater impact in that nation than they would in a heavily industrialised nation.

Some options to consider.

If there is difficulty getting food to the market,

the food can be preserved at the source. Canned and frozen foods, processed at the source, can be stored as a hedge against future food supply failures. In addition, they can be sold on the national and international market. (The marketing of Indian cuisine can become a larger industry. I had curry for the first time when I was about 9 years old. Only recently have Indian food products made their appearance in supermarkets. That is a gap of almost half a century.)

The food supply prices can be leveled slightly through the investment in commodity options. This would allow investment consortia to

a. Have food available at a more affordable price if food prices rise considerably
b. Provide a return on the investment if national supplies are sufficient to meet demand
c. Provide the necessary supply of food to process for market and hedge against a future crop failure
d. Attract investors to partner with the agriculture, manufacturing, and finance industries to bring in money for capital investment.

The government can assume the responsibility of developing roads; negotiating trade deals (read: taxes, tariffs, concessions, etc.), and provide for a stable food supply and food pricing system to stabilise the government.

The economic growth, political stability, national unity, can be promoted.

Now, many people are skilled in the various areas mentioned above. The only thing necessary is what is too often referred to as a shared vision. This monograph is a demonstration of one of the few times that the term, shared vision, may perhaps have been used appropriately.

Sincerest regards,

Slim

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Will the FB Revolution Spread to China? Part 2--Credentialism

Will the Facebook Revolution Spread to China? Part 2--Credentialism

Today, everyone has credentials. Things are not visibly better, but the experts have credentials to explain the problems they were not able to foresee, to prevent, or to fix.

Much of that comes from what is easily discernible: much of what they write is descriptive and not prescriptive. Why do they write it? As Samuel Johnson once said, "None but a blockhead writes except for money."

Now, why talk about credentials? It is a follow up to my monograph entitled "Distortions of graphic proportions." The posting includes a bar graph that purports to show how images are used to distort the facts. This monograph will explain how the exclusion of some facts is used to distort others.

Case in point.

The pundits (experts) have said that what happened in Egypt could happen in China. They said that the Chinese government is worried. Other experts pointed out that the difference in the per capita income between China and Egypt made a Facebook revolution unlikely. Then came the unpleasant situation in Bahrain.

Now the experts are saying that the high per capita income in Bahrain repudiates those who said a Facebook revolution in China is unlikely. Their reasoning? The per capita income in Bahrain. And that is where the substance of their reasoned argument ends.

First of all, consensus among the pundits is that in Bahrain you have a majority group living in a nation governed by a minority group. To put that in U.S. terms: Imagine a nation where 8 million Methodists are governed by 2 Million Lutherans.

This situation does not exist in China. The Chinese people are Chinese. Full stop.

Second, you have the type of money as well as the amount of money to consider. Here is a metaphor.

Pretend I own a 10-unit apartment building in a modest community. I rent each out for $500 a month. I live in one of the units. I make $4,500 a month. Pretend you are an architect. You get hired by a development company to gentrify my community. My property goes up in value. I now rent out my apartments for $1,500 a month. In addition, I moved into one of the fancy new apartment buildings. I now receive $15,000 a month in income. I pay $3,000 a month rent
in an upscale building and receive $12,000 a month in income.

You, however, as an architect earn about $80,000 a year. You are not satisfied with your earnings. You decide to renegotiate your contract. While that is happening, you are not working. While you are not working, 100 bricklayers are not working. If they don't work, they don't eat.

The owner of the building has two choices. Fire you and put 100 bricklayers back to work, or negotiate with you while 100 bricklayers have nothing to do and nothing to eat. Guess what? You lose your job.

You make an income by doing what you do. I make an income by what I own. I make an increased income by what you do. If you stop doing your job, my income stagnates but the bricklayers' income ceases.

Now, let's go to China. China's wealth arises from the efforts of the Chinese people. The Chinese people make a higher per capita income than the Egyptian people. The Chinese people make a higher per capita income by the way the Chinese people earn their income.

Back to my apartment building. If we assume that I have a history of being my own superintendent; mowing the lawn, fixing leaky faucets, vacuuming the carpets, polishing the floor in the lobby, I can cut my operating expenses and increase my earnings. However, when the value of my building goes up, I can hire a superintendent to do the work for me. I can still make an increased income. You, as an architect, must continue to be an architect to continue earning a living.

Will the Facebook revolution extend to China? Probably not. The question of per capita income is only a part of the consideration. The source of the income is also a consideration. The demographics are a third consideration.

Regards,

Slim

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Non-verbal Cues in the Virtual World

Non-verbal cues are often subjective.

www.businessdictionary.com

"Perceptual information communicated...by signs accompanying the words used in speech. "


Perceived is the perception of the receiver, not the transmitter. This is subjective. Thus, open to interpretation.

If everything is done (for the purpose of this discussion) on a computer, there would be no non-verbal cues to take into account. Thus, the only inferences one could make would be on the manner in which information is presented.

Now, case in point. Assumptions:

"For example, someone who asks a lot of questions may be [may be] extremely skilled and decisive. In fact they could be [could be] someone who is highly analytical and needs to see the whole picture before moving on."

This person, by way of metaphor, sent you a non-verbal clue by asking a lot of questions. That non-verbal clue you've taken into account is that "the person is highly analytical and needs to see the whole picture before moving on" [quotes mine for distinction] Again, for the purposes of this discussion, the non-verbal clue I perceived is that this person lacks confidence, based on his real or imaginary lack of subject matter knowledge.

To distinguish this, we may have to rely on other members of the group. If you and I are on the same team, you tell the leader that "Bill is analytical and needs to see the whole picture before moving on." I tell the team leader that Bill is an impediment. He prevents the group from moving on.

The leader now must assess whether Bill is qualified or not. Bill sent each of us non-verbal clues. Each of us came to a different conclusion. The team leader now must look for non-verbal clues. Is Cathy a sensitive and supportive team member who likes Bill's quest for answers? Is Cathy insecure and relies on Bill to provide a subterfuge? Also: Is Slim a goal oriented individual who finds Bill an impediment to productivity? Is Slim a rash and impulsive individual who may have a negative impact on the other members of the group by being brusque?

Well, Susan ( another member of the team) sees Slim as too theory X and feels intimidated. While Lorraine is fed up with Bill and is glad that Slim finally spoke up and put Bill in his place.

This is what really goes on in a group. And it doesn't matter whether we are co-located or virtual.

From the Quotations of Slim Fairview: "Did you ever notice, when people say, "you don't understand," what they really mean is, "you don't agree with me."

Sincerest regards,

Slim

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Will the Facebook Revolution Spread to China? Probably Not

Will the Facebook revolution spread to China? My guess, probably not.

1. What you are seeing in the Middle East is a reaction not a response, to a reaction. Kings were overthrown by military dictators and the people suffered not just a civil rights oppression but also an economic oppression.

2. In China, there was a technology revolution fueled by the Chinese government to move China into the 21st century with a great leap.

3. In the Middle East, there was an equality of suffering with the exception of a few "friends of the dictators".

4. In China, the old axiom (New by Chinese standards) "When the tide comes in, all the ships in the harbour rise,” is being played out in large numbers. Yes, there may be pockets of poverty. However, they are in a manner of speaking diffuse. Also, not "connected".

5. This brings us to: There is a techno-class. In the same way the intelligentsia was self-removed from the class-contretemps of Europe's social revolution over a century ago, the tech people are focused too fiercely on technology. "If then: go to."

6. There appear to be "tribal or religious" disconnects among the different tribal and religious segments of Middle Eastern society. In China, the Chinese people are Chinese. Full Stop.

7. There is a great deal of anti-American and anti-western sentiments in the Middle East. While there may be Chinese people who like and Chinese people who may not like some or many westerners, there is not a history of exploitation. In addition, China has the means, the methods, and the will to compete on the global stage, in the global arena, playing the same game everyone else plays. For the lack of a better term, I shall call it, Economics.

The West has a rather remarkable view of the Middle East. We preach democracy, we promote democracy, we aid and abet democracy, and we work well with those countries that are and have been democracies. In the Middle East, democracy seems to be a new thing. They will have democracy. They will vote. They will elect representatives and leaders. Then what? That is the conundrum for the US.

What happens when they vote not to establish alliances with the west? They are free to choose. With that freedom comes the freedom to choose not to be our friends. That is a possibility we are not prepared to accept.

With China, we do business. China does business with us. We've never done business with the people of the Middle East. We've done business to the people of the Middle East.

Let's move quickly to mend some fences.

Regards,

Slim

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview

Having Problems with Foreign Direct Investment?

Having Problems with Foreign Direct Investment?


What are some of the barriers?

Leverage. ROI.

It is easy to see that start up costs in some countries are much lower than start up costs in another.

If the other country does not have the physical plant for example, it will be cheaper to build that plant in the other country.

Currency considerations are another factor

Incentives from a country with little industry are greater than they are from a country where you will compete with the locals.

Market penetration. Would people in countries in the region be more inclined to buy from countries in the region or from western nations.

Partnering. It is easier to partner with business in some countries where western technology is not readily available by making that technology available.

Just a few thoughts.

Regards,

Slim

mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Virtually a Real Person

"I have a Twitter account, a Facebook account, a Linkedin account and a Blog. At last. Finally I feel like a virtual person. For a while, I didn't think I was going to make it." -- Slim Fairview


Mail: slimfairview@yahoo.com

Strategic Thinking

"Why are supermarket executives men, when supermarket shoppers are women? I'll bet a man came up with that idea." -- Slim Fairview

The Shared Vision: A process all right.

.............................THE PLAYER [A One Act Play]...........................


Here we not only read The Player's mind, we are also that fly on the wall.


"Anon."*

The Player [speaking to self.] "I have no clue what's going on. I know what I can do. I will get on a team. I will embrace the concept of horizontal management. I will say how much we need a committee. I will get on that committee."

[Now, for those of you who are really "into" metaphors:]


Team Leader: "Okay, group, does anyone have any ideas?" [Think outside the box; there are no stupid ideas, questions, etc. Only the stupidity of not saying anything; shared vision; there is no "I" in team; etc.]

The Player: "Yes. The world is not round, like this orange. The world is round like this plate!"
[Stolen from a Smothers Brother's skit.]

Team Leader: "Really? I would like you to share your feelings on that idea. I think we can all benefit from the discussion even if some on the committee respectfully disagree!"

The Player: "I heard it on the Smothers Brothers show!"

Team Leader: "Would anyone else like to comment or share viewpoints? [As long as we are all sitting around wasting the company's time and money.]

Other Members: "Blah, blah, blah..."

The Player: "You know, after listening to the other members of the team, I believe that the world really is round like this orange. This team approach to problem solving really works."

Team Leader: "Good for you! You see! The team method really works. We now have a shared vision.! Each of us "owns" the project. We have a shared goal. I will now go upstairs to tell Mr. Big, how well the members of the team worked together. [And how well his idea worked.]

Everyone: [privately to himself or to herself] "At first we thought he was a real jerk. But we can now see he that he is a team player. We can see that he is open to accepting the ideas of the other members of the group. That he is not too bright, thus not much of a threat. That we won't be challenged to come up with anything substantive.]

Team Leader [to The Big Boss] "At first I thought he was a real jerk. However, you were right, Sir. This shared vision thing really works. He is a team player willing to embrace a shared vision and to see the other members' points of view."

The Big Boss: "Great! I always knew I was a great Executive with great Leadership Skills! I am not only pleased with myself, I am please with you for implementing my vision and viewpoint."

The End


* Anon. A word often used in literary plays. [Ed. note: We don't want the audience to feel cheated.]



Sincerely,

Slim

Mail slimfairview@yahoo.com

copyright (c) 2010 Slim Fairview