Believing in Our Expectations

When you see what you expect to see, you can be easily mislead by your own expectations. 

A simple card trick I saw as a youngster proves it.

The Children's Show host, Claude Kirchner, performed a card trick. Then explained it.

Here is the explanation:

Mr. Kirchner started with a large playing card; but instead of hearts or diamonds, he had spots.

On one side, there were 2 of the 3 spots you would have on a three. On the other side, there were 5 of the 6 spots you would see on a six. One of the spots on the side was missing.

He held up the card, fingers over the top spot of the "3" card  and said, One. 

Then, turned the card over, fingers over the spot on the side of the "6" card and said, four. 

Turned the card over, fingers over the blank space and said three. Turned the card over, fingers over the blank space and said six.

One, four, three, six.

With each turn of the card, Mr. Kirchner relied on our expectation.

We believed he was telling us what was in reality only what  we expected to see.

We see this in many aspects of life.

In Medieval Times, people believed that a Solar Eclipse was in reality a dragon eating the Sun.  They would run to the town square to beat on pots and pans and drums to frighten the dragon away.  When the Solar Eclipse ended, they believed that they chased the dragon away.  However, they also validated their theory that as Solar Eclipse was really a dragon eating the Sun.  For those who watch The Big Bang Theory will know this as Post hoc ergo propter hoc.  A fallacy in logic.

Caveat. Beware!

Sincerest regards,

Slim.

Copyright © 2020 Robert Asken 

All rights reserved.

Robert Asken

Box 33

Pen Argyl, PA 18072

Data? Think about this

Data! Think about this.

It's Saturday.

You and your wife are having her two sisters over for lunch.
You try to decide whether to eat inside or outside on the picnic table.

Your wife says, let's wait til they get here as ask them how they feel.

Jane arrives. You ask her about eating outside or inside.

She replies, "It's such a beautiful day I had to go back to put on shorts and a short sleeve blouse. Let's eat outside."

A few minutes later Sue arrives. You tell her about the plans to eat outside.

She replies, "It's too cold to eat outside. I had to go back to put on slacks and a sweater."

You check the thermometer, The Data reads 72 Degrees (f)

To Jane, it's warm.
To Sue, it's too cold.
The Data says 72.

Data has its limits. That is where thinking begins.

Regards,

Slim.

"There is no expedient to which a man will not resort to avoid the real labour of thinking." Sir Joshua Reynolds.

Copyright © 2020 Robert Asken

All rights reserved.

Robert Asken

Box 33 

Pen Argyl PA

18072