Monday, December 5, 2011

Merkel's Last Stand

Slim Fairview's Predictions for the Upcoming Conclave of the EuroCrats.


The EuroCrats are fed up. The European people are fed up.

Every Solution concocted at every meeting is revealed to be temporary.

Every attempt to resolve the cause of the problems--causes that are systemic--are impeded by Chancellor Merkel.

Chancellor Merkel's strict demands for Austerity as a one pronged approached has turned the one pronged approach into a weapon.

Chancellor Merkel said, "Why should German taxpayers contribute to a fund to bail out a French bank that will compete with a German bank?"

The argument could be made that it is the Chancellor's job to act first in the interest of Germany. However, as the crisis deepens, Germany will end up as nothing more than last in the line of dominoes to fall.

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/10/oops-euroglitch.html


If anyone has doubts, witness the most recent German bond sale.


Austerity without Economic Development is no solution. Under the management of Chancellor Merkel, The EuroZone has kept Greece and Italy shackled to poverty by keeping Greece and Italy shackled to poverty programmes. Their continued support for Chancellor Merkel is supplication for continued bailout money.


Tim Geithner went to Europe to declaim, "Austerity."

Tim Geithner went on CNN news to declaim, "No country ever cut its way to prosperity."


This is reminiscent of the declamation, "No country ever taxed its way to prosperity," in the first two years of Bill Clinton's first term. There are still those who claim Bill Clinton balanced the budget. In the first two years? http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/11/political-math.html




You cannot cut pay, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution. This is evidenced by the continued problems in Greece.

Recently, Papademos said that he would propose legislation that will include austerity and growth. He proposed austerity and cutting taxes. The Press still has not reported on the growth programmes proposed--if any.

Merkel's most recent proposals were:


For investors to contribute to the bailout fund.

For investors to take a 50% loss. Would you invest in anything if the broker guaranteed you a 50% loss?

The next idea floated was for "coupons" to limit investor losses to 20% - 30%. Investors invest to make a profit, not to mitigate losses.

The next idea floated was to go to China for money, to Brazil for money, to the PetroStates for money. This is not a solution. This is a Ponzi Scheme.


Merkel's parsimoniously doling out Pfennige in exchange for an obeisance in exchange for bailouts that continuously do not solve the problem.


Only recently have I heard from Europe what I've been saying.


There is talk about Merkel not being electable with the current numbers.

Privatisation.

A larger bailout fund. (Though I did not put it that way.) This is not the answer, this is the question: http://sidestreetjournal.blogspot.com/2011/12/lender-of-first-resort.html



The path to the solution is simple:


What have you done?
Did things get better? No.
Did things get worse? Yes.
Don't do that!


Read Lender of First Resort.  If you can have a lender of last resort, you can have a lender of first resort.


With the Crisis arriving at German shores, the panic will cause Merkel to shift strategy. The Chancellor will promise to consider alternatives. Translation: The Chancellor will sit quietly while others talk about alternatives. The Chancellor will concede they should be looked into. The Chancellor will succeed in delaying any serious change by sending any ideas, viable or not, to a committee.

If anyone believes a committee is a good way to solve problems, I shall refute you with one word--Congress!




Slim Fairview's Predictions--Probable and Possible.


Probable:

The EuroCrats will meet to discuss the EuroCrisis.

Discussions may include a larger bailout fund--this will be challenged.

The discussion will move to Economic Development and Growth. Conditions will be imposed:

A strict oversight of indebted nations


Austerity before any capital investment in economic development and growth


An effort to keep the IMF at a distance to prevent Madame Lagarde from participation.


Chancellor Merkel's position on Austerity is analogous to refusing to allow the crew to plug the holes until they have bailed the water out of the boat. If you do not plug the holes, you will never bail the water out of the boat. If the heavily indebted nations have no economic development, bailouts will never be a solution.

Treaty modifications will be discussed. These modifications, understandably, will be intended to insulate Germany from what Chancellor Merkel believes to be the impending collapse of the EuroZone Economy. They will also be intended to allow the micro-management of indebted nations.


Possible:




There will be a call for Chancellor Merkel to step down--from other Nations' Parliaments, but preferably from the German Parliament.


A Lender of First Resort agency will be established. This Agency will buy bonds at a favourable and affordable rate to, say, Greece and Italy, and recoup their investment by selling bonds at a favourable rate to investors. While the difference may cost the Agency, it will be more cost effective than continuing the failed bailout solution.


China will pledge to buy €300 Billion worth of the Agency bonds.
Turkey will pledge to buy the bonds.
Brazil will pledge to buy the bonds.
Russia will pledge to buy the bonds.


Greece and Italy will agree to a privatisation plan that allows Greek & Italian government workers to buy stock in many of the entities they work for. The stock purchases will exceed 50% of the issue allowing Greek and Italian workers to retain a majority share.


Foreign Investors will buy stock.


The Greek and Italian Governments will generate revenue from the sale of the stocks, from the "Corporate" tax rate, from the capital gains tax, from income taxes.

The workers have a choice: A government paycheck that may be smaller or, in the event of being fired, non-existent or receiving a paycheck and a profit from the ownership of the privatised company they work for. Benefits will include pensions and health care.


In any event, many of the ideas included in the monographs I've been posting over the last several months, heretofore not discussed, will finally be discussed. The only question is, will they be discussed seriously, or will they merely be discussed to give the appearance of attempting to solve the problems?



Bon chance.



Slim


If you find anything here to be helpful, please do not hesitate to send me a really tricked-out laptop and to put a few dollars into the envelope along with the thank you note. Slim

Translation: 


Pack it up and ship it off to me, [FedEx]


slimfairview@yahoo.com






Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview
All rights reserved.


Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Liquidity: The EuroCrat's New Suit

THE METAPHOR

Suits are on sale Wednesday.  I get paid Friday.

I can buy the suit on Wednesday using my credit card and pay interest on the charge.

I can buy the suit on Friday and pay the higher price.

Liquidity:

I saved money from my last paycheck to buy the suit.

I buy the suit for the lower price.
I pay no interest.
I earn interest on the money I saved from my last paycheck to buy the suit.

As Eloi Papillon, a character in the novel St. Lawrence Blues (Un Joualonais sa Joualonie) by the gifted French Canadian author Marie-Claire Blais, said, "Credit is the poor man's illusion of wealth" (C'est le pauvre homme de crédit l'illusion de la richesse.)

Bon chance,


Slim


slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Does Social Media Rule the World?

It began with flash mobs.  Then came the Arab Spring.  Now OWS.  In addition, only a few years ago, President Obama used social media to enhance his campaign and to attract younger voters.  John McCain?  He lost.


Facebook
Linkedin
Twitter
Blogspot
Slideshare


Question?  Does Social Media Rule the World?


Slim

Monday, November 28, 2011

Two Down--Merkel to Go!

European Leaders pursue new pact. Closer fiscal Ties.

What have they been doing wrong?


They attempted a solution that failed.

They repeated the failure.

They brought Europe to the brink of disaster.

They decided to talk about doing what they should have done in the first place.

These are the leaders. Oh, boy!


Further reports: The ECB has thus far refused to intervene. Why? Jean-Claude Trichet had a deep concern for his legacy. Too late!

With the new arrangement, if it is implemented—but more on that later—will give Madame Lagarde a larger role.  Now, perhaps Madame will not feel the pressure to ingratiate her self with Angela Merkel.

The ECB is now considering the larger efforts; some members anyway. Perhaps this means that some have more intelligence than a 5 lb bag of store brand cheese doodles. (2.27kg)

Sarkozy is eager for the new deal among the EuroCrats to be implemented. However, Angela Merkel wants to drag the process out—still unrepentant. Desolé. Remember what I said before? “…if it is implemented…”

Chancellor Merkel embraces the pretext of seeking consensus. Mind you, the inability to seek consensus in any reasonable time-frame is almost impossible. That is one of the causes of the problem in the first place.

Chancellor Merkel is concerned that non-Euro members don’t feel marginalised. This is the EuroZone—not a Nursery School. I am only going to imagine The Chancellor has been schooled by experts in American Marketing Strategies in advance of her attending
the meeting with President Obama.  “Oh, yes, Mr. President.  I don’t want the other nations to feel marginalised and low self-esteem.”
Thank you, Angela Merkel.

Now, what has brought Germany around to everyone else’s way of thinking? Is it the fact that the EuroZone is on the Brink of Disaster? No. It is the fact that the disaster is now washing up onto German Shores. That woke the DeutscheCrats real fast. Now maybe they will ask Chancellor Merkel to resign.


The euphemism has not effected Europe alone. The Wall Street Journal says “Berlin” when in means “Merkel”.

Monti takes over Italy. Borrowing costs rise. People blame Monti and not the 50% discount Merkel granted to Bond investors.

Of course, no disaster would be complete without the Economists.

Economists say the ECB can do more legally. Okay. We agree.

“But wait, there’s more.”

Economists have said:

Large Bond buys by the U.S. Federal Reserve and The Bank of England haven’t eroded their political independence. Here goes:

U.S. Federal Reserve. Operative Word(s): U.S.

The Bank of England. Operative Word: England.

The ECB. Operative Word: European.

If I caught that, everyone caught that. Why bother engaging in the pretext, pretense, and, well, academic flummery? You may be correct. However, how will we know?

“But wait, there’s more.”

“ECB loath to take actions that could spark a political backlash against it in Germany, the Euro’s most powerful member.” Maybe too powerful, eh?

New EuroPact Idea: Ask Merkel to leave office or ask Germany to leave the EuroUnion.

“Nothing for nothing,” as my Mom used to say. In other words, “The Price of Germany is too high a Price for German Participation.

If the EuroCrats threaten to kick Germany out, what are they going to do? Take their ball and go join another EuroUnion? Can I seriously suggest that? No; but the EuroCrats can—and should. What would that cause? Don’t worry. It won’t get that far. Germany will ask Chancellor Merkel to step down and go home. Nicely, of course.


The best part of all this is the question, why is Germany willing to work with the ROE? (Rest of Europe) Because the Crisis Hit Berlin.

Papandreou stepped down.

Berlusconi stepped down.

Now, perhaps, it is time for Merkel to step down.

The headline: Time Runs Short for Solution to EuroCrisis. Someone tell Chancellor Merkel…after time runs out!


Sincerely,

Slim


mailto:slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview



They refused to do what was necessary.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

CHINA Hostile or Expedient?

China has an army.  Over the years estimates have ranged from 100 million soldiers to 250 million soldiers.  This is not a public jobs programme.  However, this may not be for attacking other nations.  This army may be for civil defence and preserving civilian order in a time of crisis.  Why?

Take a look at a recent news item.  A cyber attack on a Springfield, Ill. public water utility resulted in the destruction of one of its pumps, according to a security expert.

Experts reported that several ip numbers on the computers files originated in Russia.  This is not an accusation by the Security Forces.  Hacking may well have been the activity of a teenager somewhere in the US or anywhere else in the world.  Consideration was also given to the possibility that this was a "test run".

However, the most telling statement was that the facility computers were not designed for security.  That speaks volumes.  Our schools are not designed for security. Our airports were not designed for security.  All were designed on the assumption of civility.  The civility that existed then.  That was then. This is now.  Back to China.

Throughout China, people are capable of surviving on rice and burning candles for light.  A bicycle is adequate transportation.  Then there are the big cities.

The Large Military, despite all the marching in formation, more likely is being prepared to keep cities functioning and the population fed in the event of a global crisis.  Food, Water, Fuel.

Now the question is why?  Is it the old Slim Fairview canard, "It's better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it?"  China, with 6,000 years of history and the revered wisdom of the wise throughout their history, has NOT been waiting for me to come along.

In the event of a technological cataclysm, China is better prepared to endure greater hardships for greater lengths of time than people in the West.  They are quite prepared to return to "analogue" until "digital" returns. 

Are we as prepared?

We are trying to bolster security.  We may have "disaster control" however, how well prepared are we to live in a powered-down society?

Now, if you will excuse me, I must trim the lampe wickes.

Sincerely,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Monday, November 14, 2011

Political Math

Dems Control the House & the Senate + Jimmy Carter (D) = Ronald Reagan

Dems Control the House & the Senate + Bill Clinton (D) = GOP takeover of Congress.

Dems Control the House & the Senate + Barack Obama (D) = Tea Party takeover of House

But wait, There's More!

Dems Control the House & the Senate + LBJ (D) = Richard Nixon

Dems Control the House & the Senate + Truman (D) = Eisenhower + GOP Congress

Source: http://www.dflorig.com/partycontrol.htm

Regards,

Slim

Friday, November 11, 2011

ɡrɛkoʊˈroʊmən

Finally, Good news is beginning to filtre out of the EuroCrisis.

Both Greece and Italy have chosen leaders. (You can't lead if you can't manage and politicians cannot manage.)

The leaders, in opposition to political wisdom but consistent with conventional wisdom, are technocrats.  Technocrat is a polite way of saying, someone with the ability to think.

There was a time when the empirical method was in full fury.  Run the test. Record the results. Repeat the test. Duplicate the results. Draw your conclusion.

Then, The US became infected with a Passion for Opinions. Express an opinion. Seek data to validate your opinion. Bask in the admiration of others.

For months I have been chiding the EuroCrats to understand some basics:  You cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution.  Finally, now that Greece is on the brink of failure and Italy is on the brink of catastrophe, people are starting to talk about growth. 

The EuroCrats figured out that clichés, slogans, and platitudes don't solve problems.

There has been a fixation with austerity--yes a necessity.  However, austerity without provisions for investment, economic development projects, and growth, is no solution.

There was another proposal.  Forcing investors to take a 50% loss. (Half a loaf is better than none.)  Investors don't invest money to mitigate losses. They make money to make a profit.

Then there was the Ponzi Scheme.  Go to China for investors.  Go to Brazil for investors.  Go to the Petrostates for investors.  That is a Ponzi Scheme.  I don't hear that being talked about anymore.  Not since I said as much on my blog and on Twitter.

Still, even as Greece and Italy are moving in the right direction, Chancellor Merkel is still working to be an impediment.

From USA Today:

Germany's Chancellor Angel Merkel told reporters in Berlin "it is very important ... that Italy wins back its credibility."

"That means the austerity package being implemented very quickly, as is now the plan, and above all the political leadership being clarified as quickly as possible -- because I think that is very important for Italy's credibility," Merkel said.

Chancellor Merkel seems incapable of celebrating the good news.  Greece and Italy are moving toward economic development and are taking responsible action by elevating those to leadership who are qualified, capable, realistic, practical, and I will stop here before I dig myself into an even deeper hole. 

Still, I am most optimistic.  And I believe I should be optimistic.  Why?  Because I am going to take some credit for what is going on.  Someone must have been reading the monographs on my blog and my tweets on Twitter, because what they are doing is what I've been saying they should be doing.  In addition, I heard no one saying what is being said until I started saying it.

The EuroCrats were clutching to a procedure for solving problems that failed repeatedly.

What did you do?
Did it work?
No?
Don't do that!

Papandreou resigned.  Berlusconi resigned.  Perhaps Chancellor Merkel will heed my admonition to "follow the path of the trajectory."  I am not necessarily saying Merkel resign in favour of, say, Wolfgang Schäuble. However, I am suggesting that Chancellor Merkel acknowledge that while austerity is necessary, it is ineffective and ineffectual without Economic Development and Growth.

Sincerely,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Monday, November 7, 2011

The Path of the Trajectory

Slimviews:  Commentary on Global Political and Economic Events by Slim Fairview.  Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a month or two. Slim

Perhaps I should not call it commentary.

"Everybody knows what everybody knows."  Slim Fairview [From The Quotations of Slim Fairview/ Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview]

But I digress:

The latest reports out are that back in the mists of time, the fact that Greek debt was higher than reported and that prognosticators were saying this could lead to a default at some time in the future, were met with vehement denials and great acrimony.

"You show me disrespect. I got empowerment and dignity. I got an entitlement. Gimme something." [sic]

"Positive reinforcement of negative behaviour is a disincentive to improve." Slim Faiview.  The time for stern measures was then.  The EuroCrats failed.  They were bullied. 

Now that disaster has befallen Greece, Europe, Asia, The World, The EuroCrats are attempting to save face by taking stern measures. 

Ineffective, ineffectual, but stern.  And, too, they are clutching retentively to their ideologies like a two year old with his hands down his nappy.


You cannot have a solution that does not include economic development.

You cannot have a solution that does not increase the middle-class.

"The rise or fall of the middle class is a leading indicator of a nations future." [Success or Failure]  The Quotations of Slim Fairview.

Still, the EuroCrats will not budge.  This may be trite but it is true:  They are rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Papandreou was to resign.  Markets up.  Denial. Markets down.  Agreement to resign, Markets up. 

"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."  Santayana.

"Those who never learned history are doomed--period!"  Slim Fairview

Berlusconi to resign.  Markets up.  Denial. Market down.  When  € 500 billion, tell you to go, you go.  However, first there must be talk. Rumours. Denials. Pledges. Indignation. (Righteous or otherwise.) Accusations. Recriminations. Finally, a Sanctimonious Submitting of his Resignation--with deep regret.  And a nasty insinuation about his critics and the opposition.  I apologise if this seems harsh.  However, we've seen it before--all too often.

Meanwhile, the Greek Parliament (Critical of the US) is emulating the US Congress in handling serious debt crisis matters.  To assuage their bruised egos, the EuroCrats are comparing themselves (Contrasting) favourably to the US.  That must offer some satisfaction.  No solutions but some satisfaction nonetheless.

The only new visions the EuroCrats have embraced is to move from a failed policy and procedure of pursuing austerity with celerity and no mechanism for growth (rather stifling growth) and repeated larger doses of a medication that harms more than it hurts the patient.

There are some people who, when confronted by the consequences of their actions, will coagulate like white corpuscles to defend the body against the medication designed to heal the illness.” –Slim Fairview  

That is what the EuroCrats are doing.  Fighting the medication that will heal the illness.

The next step the EuroCrats are in the midst of taking:  A Ponzi Scheme.  Now that investors have lost half their investment, the EuroCrats are going to China for investors; to Brazil for investors; to the Petrostates for investors.  Call it what you will.  Define it any way you choose.  This is a Ponzi Scheme.

 If you are not laughing I will assume you understand the severity of the situation.

Instead of describing my blog as Commentary, let me say that it is more prescriptive than descriptive.  But don't bother listening to me.  Everybody always doesn't listen to me.


Bon chance.

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

My Comment on The New York Times On Line.

http://community.nytimes.com/comments/www.nytimes.com/2011/11/05/world/europe/italy-agrees-to-imf-oversight.html?permid=46#comment46


Copyright (c) Slim Fairview

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

The Future is Getting Close Fast!

The morning papers brought my admonitions to the fore.


The Greek people really are fed up.  They are voting whether or not to pull out of the EuroUnion.

"You cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes and call it a solution."  Slim 

The Markets Fell on the Anxieties of the EuroCrisis.

EuroFund cannot receive charity from China.

MF Global down on EuroCrisis.

Some EuroCrats Concede the Need for Economic Development and Growth.

Austerity Alone Cannot Solve the Crisis

"Analysts saw lack of measures to boost economic growth as Achilles Heel." 
(Slim is validated.)

Germany worries about hyper-inflation while the rest of the world worries about a recession.

Bond Markets are off.

Italy Sliding Fast.

G 20 Leaders Heading to Cannes will pursue (push for) Growth. (At Last--Epiphany!)

Even in Pakistan:  Pakistan Agents part of US Plan for Afghanistan.

"It is a universal condition:  We refuse to accept that all alliances and enmities are transitory." Slim Fairview from The Quotations of Slim Fairivew


Alors!  Aussitôt!  Lire mon blog!


Bon Chance!


Slim

(Mince)


Maybe I will be offered a job by the EuroCrats.


slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

What to expect in the future--if there is one



That you cannot predict the future is not a proper rebuff to someone who tells you to get off the tracks because a train is coming.

Greek is suffering an economic crisis.  Italy is looking to cut spending. There seems to be an epidemic of austere proportions.

Germany is suggesting that private sector investors bear some of the burden of their speculation.  The scolds are everywhere but we don’t see much in standard practices when it comes to analysis.  We have experts galore, but few agree.

In the US, rising energy costs are seen as a problem that can be solved by summer.  Only a few months ago, the doomsayers were predicting $5 a gallon gas by summer.  Gas prices are declining.  For now.

China is feeling the impact of growth.  The Arab spring is turning into a very hot summer.

All agree that there are difficulties.  All agree that the problems may be around for a while.  Some have solutions.  None seem viable, practicable, or sustainable and most of what we read and hear is descriptive not prescriptive.

Hence:

The world can no longer afford to play a zero sum game.  For a while, this was the joint policy of US – Soviet relations.  (First strike capability, SALT treaties, détente.)  NATO, as evidenced by the Libyan Operation, seems more like a Maginot Line.

Therefore, a global initiative is mandatory.  It is compulsory.

It is intuitively obvious to the casual observer that an energy crisis is coming.  Increased competition for oil is what is causing prices to go up at the pump.  Not our failure to drive hybrids or use mercury vapor bulbs rather than incandescent bulbs.

Nuclear power can no longer be seen as a plan for the future.  Not unless you are planning for a disasters.  Such plans are intended to prevent disasters, not cause them.  You can have, tsunamis at the coast, floods along the rivers, fires in the forests, and if all else fails—earthquakes.

On my blog, I wrote Memo to Big Oil.  I also wrote; Nuclear Energy has lost its lustre but not its glow.  These are admonitions and cautionary tales.  Read them. Heed them.  The latter is a definite scolding of the US failure to embrace and pursue solar power over the past 50 years, and a seeming refusal to embrace and pursue it over the next 50 years.

At http://slideshare.net/slimfairview I posted two PowerPoint Presentations.  Global Management: A shift in the paradigm of corporate America and The Future of the G 20 in Good Times and Bad.

Each is a moderately concise vision of a.) How companies around the world can do a better job of going global and b.) A scenario for global disaster and the means to prevent it.  Take the time to review each.

On my blog, http://slimviews.blogspot.com/ I have posted numerous monographs explaining the fallacies and failures of Western Diplomacy in the Middle East.  No sooner than I make a case, my point becomes evident by way of the unfolding events.

The EuroCrats are quibbling while the Greek debt crisis grows larger. There seems to be no strategic planning—or non-strategic planning for that matter.  It would almost seem that Economic Development is something for discussion among the volunteers at a small town Chamber of Commerce Economic Development Committee.

The 21st Century seems to be carrying forward the lust for symbolic gestures over substantive gains that hearken not to the last decade but to previous centuries.

Corporate business leaders have given precedence to the process after coming up with a plan.  The one thing they’ve forgotten is The Project.  That too has been covered in my writing.

If we are serious about the future—serious about having a future—we should get started rather quickly.

Sincerest regards,

Slim

Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview


Sunday, October 30, 2011

You Gotta Feel for World "Leaders".

The following on Executing Strategy was written for the Corporate Setting.  It applies just as much to Government.  Ours and Others.  And to the EuroUnion.

Impediments to Executing Strategy



I. The first impediment to executing strategy will be others who do not share your vision.



a. Your vision competes with their vision.


b. Your vision contravenes their assumptions.


1. If their strategy is based on their vision, your vision will threaten their position.


2. If their assumptions are repudiated, their reputation will suffer.






II. There will be challenges to the data you use to substantiate your strategy.






a. If you use the methods they use, your results will challenge their competency


b. If you use different methods to arrive at your conclusions their methods will be challenged.


c. Either a. and or b. will diminish either their self image or their image within the company.






1. If you challenge their self-image they will become hostile.


2. If you threaten their image in the company, they will become devious.






All of the above assumes that the people you work with and work for like you.



If they do not, the job of executing your strategy will be even more difficult.


"The Rise or Fall of the Middle Class is a leading indicator of a Country's Future." Slim Fairview from The Quotations of Slim Fairview (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

The Soviet Union:  No Middle Class.  Collapse.
China:  Rising Middle Class.  Economic Growth and Success
India:  Rising Middle Class.  Economic Growth and Success
Greece:  Falling Middle Class.  Economic Turmoil
United States:  Falling Middle Class....It is called the path of the trajectory.


Leadership:  "Look behind you.  If people are following you, you're a leader.  If they're not, you're not."  Slim Fairview.

 


Bon chance,






Slim




slimfairview@yahoo.com

 
Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

(Still hoping for that job with the EuroUnion.)


Friday, October 28, 2011

Slim Was Right EuroCrats Were Wrong


Cheers and Skepticism Greet EuroDeal.  They always do.  The Elation over a deal, the Deflation over the details.  Plus ca change...

The Headline in the WSJ:  "Will it Work."  Well, does it ever?  No? 

Another quote from a EuroCrat was very disturbing. Very.  "The implementation challenge is higher than  the design challenge."

Translation.  It was easy to come up with a plan.  Implementing the plan will be difficult.

Why?

For one reason, there are few details.  There are always "few details."  Why?  Because there are no details. 

How can you implement a plan if you don't know what you are supposed to do?  Yet, the process goes on.  And that word keeps cropping up.  Process.  This is a process problem.

Herein, I am validated.  Again.  Repeatedly.

"Analysts saw lack of measures to boost economic growth as an Achilles Heel."

How often must I say it?

Cut Wages, fire people, increase property taxes--that is not a plan. That is not a project.  That has not worked. That cannot work without an Economic Development Strategy.  A polite way to say projects.  I referenced that several times. It is on my monograph about China's success.  I won't put the link here.  Google it.

The next disturbing statement: Governments don't know if investors will respond well to the "Insurance Plan."  Already the news on that matter is not good. "Default insurance market takes hit."  I am guessing no one saw that coming.  "There are no unintended consequences, only unwanted consequences."  Slim Fairview

EuroPlan.  Try it and HOPE it works.  That is a plan.  That is not a project.  EuroCrats need to think in terms of Projects not Plans.

The Beefed UP bailout Fund has a critical flaw.  Beef up the fund and hope this would be enough to help out OTHER debtor nations.  Did this help Greece?  No?  You need a new and/or expanded approach. 

The Next Move:  New Fund Plan.  Go to Asia for Investors.  Go to Brazil for Investors.  Go to PetroStates for Investors.  This is not, I repeat NOT a strategy to resolve the EuroCrisis:

THIS IS A PONZI SCHEME. How far down the line do the EuroCrats intend to take this strategy?

Quote from a Greek Citizen:  "Greek people are ashamed and angry."  To the Greek Government.  The People are Angry.  The People are Rioting.  Witness the Path of the Trajectory.

To the EuroCrats:

"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."  Santayana.
"Those who never learned history are doomed--period!"  Slim Fairview

The problem with the EuroCrats?  They cannot see the present.

"That you cannot predict the future is not the proper rebuff to the person who tells you to get off the tracks because a train is coming.  In this case, "the" train is coming. 

History is approaching quickly and you cannot see it.  The EuroCrats are like the man who drives into a tunnel, sees two headlights approaching, and says, "I'll just drive between those two motor cycles."  Hey, Guys.  I borrowed that joke from Bozo the Clown.  It seems not to be a joke, now.

There are more than enough monographs on my blog to point you in the right direction. 
http://slimviews.blogspot.com


Bon Chance!


Regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com


THE HEADLINE:  SLIM WAS RIGHT THE EUROCRATS WERE WRONG

Well, not yet.  However, follow the progression of the tag lines:

Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a month or two.
Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a week or two.
Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a day or two.
Read my blog today, or read it in the Wall Street Journal tomorrow.

Then again, Don't bother asking me.  Everyone always doesn't ask me.


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

American't American

Europe:  Austerity.  Bailout

America:  Austerity Bailout

The areas of concern:

Jobs

Housing

Energy

Stimulus

Three Solutions

Capital Investment

Economic Stimulus

Multiplier Effect


If you want to cut taxes, this is how to do it.

Eliminate Sales Taxes on Selected Items at Graduated Price Levels:

American made autos below $34,999
Appliances.
Cookware
Furniture
Lawn Furniture
Lawn Mowers
Lap Tops
iPhones
iPads
&c!


This will stimulate the spending on Main Street. Read: The Multiplier Effect


http://www.slideshare.net/slimfairview/the-multiplier-effect-4962273


Breaks for Banks

An example:


1000 homes on the books ready for foreclosure.
Stop the proceedings
Rewrite the mortgages at an affordable monthly payment--with or without a balloon payment.
TAX BREAKS FOR THE BANKS WHO PARTICIPATE


Energy:

Large Tax Incentives for Oil Companies who invest in Clean & or Green Energy projects.

By way of metaphor:  Buy Solyndra and run it as a business and not as a symbolic gesture.  You went to B-School.  You know the drill.


Grants for Public Projects

Roads
Bridges


Establish a Federal Legal Team to reviews laws and regulations that impede the building of roads and bridges.


Creates Jobs
Removes people from the benefits roles because they are employed.
Generates revenue for the States through State Income Taxes


Creates a demand for American Made Heavy Equipment.


In order to understand Economic Stimulus and how it works, click the link and read the metaphor:


http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/06/economic-stimulus-by-metaphor.html


Bon chance!


Slim


slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Diplomacy? A Piece of Cake.

Back Story


The Cupcake:


The crisis.  There was only one cupcake left. 

The Solution:  One cuts, the other chooses.

My Dad, a smart man but short of Solomon, came up with that "plan".

My sister was too young to make an even cut.  She knew this.  The cutting was left to me.

I was so scrupulous in cutting the cupcake into two even pieces, that my sister could not determine which piece was larger.  My sister was gripped with the fear that she would choose the smaller piece.

My Dad handed each of us half a cupcake and never tried that method again.  Therein lies my Dad's Brilliance!  My Dad never tried that method again.



The EuroUnion
Diplomacy:   A system of such scrupulous adherence to protocol and good manners that everone believes he received the smallest piece of cake.

My sister and I were four and seven respectively.  There is no excuse for what is going on among the EuroCrats.

Bon appetit.


Slim

PS. 

 "If people were more concerned about being respectable and dignified, they could worry less about being treated with dignity and respect." 

"Don't bother asking me, you don't want to hear my opinion, you want to hear your opinion."

From The Quotations of Slim Fairview.  Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview


slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

EuroUnion: An Uncivil Union

The EuroUnion will go nowhere without an Economic Development Project.  And, Europe needs both Management and Leadership.

You can't lead if you can't manage.  And the EuroCrats CANNOT manage.

One reason the EuroCrats fail is because no one has confidence in anyone.  Why would they? 

Why would anyone feel confident in the EuroCrats, Merkel at the fore, who have devised a plan, implemented the plan, and presided gallantly over the plan that has perpetuated the decline?

Who, really, has confidence in Angela Merkel?  Who?  Why?  Answer: Because she is rich.

Here is the folksy analogy.

Hey, everyone, Rich Aunt Angela is coming to dinner.  Let's spend more than we can afford and eat less than we need, to curry favour with the Rich Aunt who criticises us for wasting money on frivolity and not eating well.

You cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes and call it a solution.

You cannot approve a bailout on the assumption of growth in Greece, then impose sanctions to punish Greece because your assumptions were wrong and call yourself a leader.  You are not a leader.  And you certainly are not a manager.  You are a failure.  A failure.

Reduce the number of attendees.
Stop sitting in a circle behind flags.
Face the blackboard.
Don't ask questions.
Through question and answer, quest 4 the truth.
Eliminate known failures.
Seek not consensus--seek acknowledgement.

To lift a line from our Founding Fathers:  "We hold these truths to be self-evident."

"It may be a Universal Condition:  We refuse to acknowledge that all alliances and enmities are transitory."  The Quotations of Slim Fairview.  However, The EuroCrats must accept that the Zero-Sum Game is no longer viable. That is the nexus of my ppt. presentation "The Future of the G 20 in Good Times and Bad."  If you watch Cannes, however, you will see my prediction come true.  Nothing will come out of it.

I had had hopes when I read the statement by Wolfgang Schauble adding two more elements to the EuroPlan.

Provisions for Economic Development. (Growth)
Management of the EuroUnion.

It seems neither will come about any time soon. In other words, why bother making the effort to put the umlaut (ä) when writing his name when he will prove to be as big a disappointment as Chancellor Merkel?

It is time for Angela Merkel to step down or for the Germany to leave the EuroUnion.


Bon Chance.

Slim


slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Resources: Control and Allocation

The impending disaster that awaits:  The Control and Allocation of Resources.

The way these are handled is vital.  It will determine more than the future direction of the Global Economy.  It will determine whether or not there is one.

What to Expect in the Future--If there is one?

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/07/what-to-expect-in-future-if-there-is.html

To the EuroCrats, The G 20, et. al.


The OWS (Occupy Wall Street) Movement

The Greek Riots.  (Yes, riots!)

The Arab Spring. (You call it the Arab Spring; I call it the Path of the Trajectory.)


The Future: What About the Path of the Trajectory?


As we plan into the future, are we considering the path of the trajectory?
Case in point. The pendulum swings both ways. The farther it swings one way, the farther it swings back.

Globalisation: Will the path of globalisation eventually lead to a path of isolationism?

Information: Will the information that we are relying upon so heavily, eventually become a curse that will lead people to retrench? An information overload can make the information virtually worthless if too much information cannot be accepted as reliable?

Technology: Will the technology that enhances our efforts become so "intrusive" that we are paralysed by its intrusiveness?

Politics: Will the politics of globalisation lead to "Superpower Centers" with a detente between e.g: The Asian Center, The African Center, The Middle Eastern Center, The European Center, The Latin American Center, the North American Center?

Wake up and smell the Starbucks Triple-Shot Cappuccino Venti.  (Extra foamy? Your choice.)


The Resources

Food
Water
Pharmaceuticals
Energy
Technology
Information
Validation

Different Global Regions and Spheres of Influence have or will have varying degrees of Control and Methods and means of Allocation.  Understanding this is Crucial.

Spheres

Asia
America
Africa
Europe
Latin America


The issue is more than a question of Supply and Demand.  Trust me.  On the matter of resources you have:

The Quantity

The Quality

These will be interjected between the Supply and the Demand: Between Control and Allocation.

Unfortunately, if these are not pressing issues now, they will be when it is too late to do anything about it.  However, Pollyanna said I should give it the Old College Try.

As the G 20 prepares to meet, they will be seeking  propter hoc solutions to the pressing issues dujour:

The Increasing EuroDebt

The Declining EuroZone Economy

The Declining Global Economy

Micro and Macro Economics

Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Investment and Banking Strategies.

Désolé

Over the past several months, I've been blogging on the problems and the solutions of the EuroCrisis and the Greek Debt Crisis.  I thought, for a moment, I might have made some progress enlightening the EuroCrats"

What did you do?

Did it work?

No?

Don't do that!

Still, after two years of continuous and continual failures, the EuroCrats are still clutching retentively to their ideologies, even as the world around them is changing.  Oops!  It did it again.

There are more than enough monographs posted on the matter.

The optimistic one was "EuroCrats Take Slim's Advice!

 http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/10/eurocrats-take-slims-advice.html


I thought, Finally, the EuroCrats will be addressing Economic Development:

If you can believe Wolfgang Schäuble, and it is in my best interest to do so, the EuroCrats will focus on ways to Promote Economic Growth.  This is something heretofore not addressed.  This is what I have been pressing to no avail--up till now.


As the EuroCrats plan to attend their meeting in Brussels, and the G 20 Leaders plan to attend theirs in Cannes, I can safely say that there is little indication that anything substantive will be accomplished.  Certainly not when Prominent Individuals are discussing empowerment, momentum and excitement. (Empowerment?  This is the EuroUnion, not a Nursery School.) 

And Tim Geithner's remark,

"When France and Germany agree on a plan, big things are possible." 

That, I described as "just silly".  It seems to be an updated version of the old Cold War joke: Boris Badenov's, "Plotting big trouble for Moose and Squirrel."


The EuroCrats have pursued a course that is both ineffective and ineffectual.  They refuse to see what is happening let alone what is going to happen.

"That you cannot predict the future is not a proper rebuff to the person who tells you to get off the track--the train is coming." -- Slim Fairivew


I apologise for the "commercial" reference to Starbucks.  However, it was and is necessary.  Both the reference and the coffee.  You EuroCrats and other World Leaders definitely need to wake up.

Bon chance.


Sincerest regards,


Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview