Friday, November 11, 2011


Finally, Good news is beginning to filtre out of the EuroCrisis.

Both Greece and Italy have chosen leaders. (You can't lead if you can't manage and politicians cannot manage.)

The leaders, in opposition to political wisdom but consistent with conventional wisdom, are technocrats.  Technocrat is a polite way of saying, someone with the ability to think.

There was a time when the empirical method was in full fury.  Run the test. Record the results. Repeat the test. Duplicate the results. Draw your conclusion.

Then, The US became infected with a Passion for Opinions. Express an opinion. Seek data to validate your opinion. Bask in the admiration of others.

For months I have been chiding the EuroCrats to understand some basics:  You cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution.  Finally, now that Greece is on the brink of failure and Italy is on the brink of catastrophe, people are starting to talk about growth. 

The EuroCrats figured out that clichés, slogans, and platitudes don't solve problems.

There has been a fixation with austerity--yes a necessity.  However, austerity without provisions for investment, economic development projects, and growth, is no solution.

There was another proposal.  Forcing investors to take a 50% loss. (Half a loaf is better than none.)  Investors don't invest money to mitigate losses. They make money to make a profit.

Then there was the Ponzi Scheme.  Go to China for investors.  Go to Brazil for investors.  Go to the Petrostates for investors.  That is a Ponzi Scheme.  I don't hear that being talked about anymore.  Not since I said as much on my blog and on Twitter.

Still, even as Greece and Italy are moving in the right direction, Chancellor Merkel is still working to be an impediment.

From USA Today:

Germany's Chancellor Angel Merkel told reporters in Berlin "it is very important ... that Italy wins back its credibility."

"That means the austerity package being implemented very quickly, as is now the plan, and above all the political leadership being clarified as quickly as possible -- because I think that is very important for Italy's credibility," Merkel said.

Chancellor Merkel seems incapable of celebrating the good news.  Greece and Italy are moving toward economic development and are taking responsible action by elevating those to leadership who are qualified, capable, realistic, practical, and I will stop here before I dig myself into an even deeper hole. 

Still, I am most optimistic.  And I believe I should be optimistic.  Why?  Because I am going to take some credit for what is going on.  Someone must have been reading the monographs on my blog and my tweets on Twitter, because what they are doing is what I've been saying they should be doing.  In addition, I heard no one saying what is being said until I started saying it.

The EuroCrats were clutching to a procedure for solving problems that failed repeatedly.

What did you do?
Did it work?
Don't do that!

Papandreou resigned.  Berlusconi resigned.  Perhaps Chancellor Merkel will heed my admonition to "follow the path of the trajectory."  I am not necessarily saying Merkel resign in favour of, say, Wolfgang Schäuble. However, I am suggesting that Chancellor Merkel acknowledge that while austerity is necessary, it is ineffective and ineffectual without Economic Development and Growth.



Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview