Two Down--Merkel to Go!

European Leaders pursue new pact. Closer fiscal Ties.

What have they been doing wrong?


They attempted a solution that failed.

They repeated the failure.

They brought Europe to the brink of disaster.

They decided to talk about doing what they should have done in the first place.

These are the leaders. Oh, boy!


Further reports: The ECB has thus far refused to intervene. Why? Jean-Claude Trichet had a deep concern for his legacy. Too late!

With the new arrangement, if it is implemented—but more on that later—will give Madame Lagarde a larger role.  Now, perhaps Madame will not feel the pressure to ingratiate her self with Angela Merkel.

The ECB is now considering the larger efforts; some members anyway. Perhaps this means that some have more intelligence than a 5 lb bag of store brand cheese doodles. (2.27kg)

Sarkozy is eager for the new deal among the EuroCrats to be implemented. However, Angela Merkel wants to drag the process out—still unrepentant. Desolé. Remember what I said before? “…if it is implemented…”

Chancellor Merkel embraces the pretext of seeking consensus. Mind you, the inability to seek consensus in any reasonable time-frame is almost impossible. That is one of the causes of the problem in the first place.

Chancellor Merkel is concerned that non-Euro members don’t feel marginalised. This is the EuroZone—not a Nursery School. I am only going to imagine The Chancellor has been schooled by experts in American Marketing Strategies in advance of her attending

the meeting with President Obama.  “Oh, yes, Mr. President.  I don’t want the other nations to feel marginalised and low self-esteem.”

Thank you, Angela Merkel.

Now, what has brought Germany around to everyone else’s way of thinking? Is it the fact that the EuroZone is on the Brink of Disaster? No. It is the fact that the disaster is now washing up onto German Shores. That woke the DeutscheCrats real fast. Now maybe they will ask Chancellor Merkel to resign.


The euphemism has not effected Europe alone. The Wall Street Journal says “Berlin” when in means “Merkel”.

Monti takes over Italy. Borrowing costs rise. People blame Monti and not the 50% discount Merkel granted to Bond investors.

Of course, no disaster would be complete without the Economists.

Economists say the ECB can do more legally. Okay. We agree.

“But wait, there’s more.”

Economists have said:

Large Bond buys by the U.S. Federal Reserve and The Bank of England haven’t eroded their political independence. Here goes:

U.S. Federal Reserve. Operative Word(s): U.S.

The Bank of England. Operative Word: England.

The ECB. Operative Word: European.

If I caught that, everyone caught that. Why bother engaging in the pretext, pretense, and, well, academic flummery? You may be correct. However, how will we know?

“But wait, there’s more.”

“ECB loath to take actions that could spark a political backlash against it in Germany, the Euro’s most powerful member.” Maybe too powerful, eh?

New EuroPact Idea: Ask Merkel to leave office or ask Germany to leave the EuroUnion.

“Nothing for nothing,” as my Mom used to say. In other words, “The Price of Germany is too high a Price for German Participation.

If the EuroCrats threaten to kick Germany out, what are they going to do? Take their ball and go join another EuroUnion? Can I seriously suggest that? No; but the EuroCrats can—and should. What would that cause? Don’t worry. It won’t get that far. Germany will ask Chancellor Merkel to step down and go home. Nicely, of course.


The best part of all this is the question, why is Germany willing to work with the ROE? (Rest of Europe) Because the Crisis Hit Berlin.

Papandreou stepped down.

Berlusconi stepped down.

Now, perhaps, it is time for Merkel to step down.

The headline: Time Runs Short for Solution to EuroCrisis. Someone tell Chancellor Merkel…after time runs out!


Sincerely,

Slim


mailto:slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright © 2011 Slim Fairview



They refused to do what was necessary.

ɡrɛkoʊˈroʊmən

Finally, Good news is beginning to filtre out of the EuroCrisis.

Both Greece and Italy have chosen leaders. (You can't lead if you can't manage and politicians cannot manage.)

The leaders, in opposition to political wisdom but consistent with conventional wisdom, are technocrats.  Technocrat is a polite way of saying, someone with the ability to think.

There was a time when the empirical method was in full fury.  Run the test. Record the results. Repeat the test. Duplicate the results. Draw your conclusion.

Then, The US became infected with a Passion for Opinions. Express an opinion. Seek data to validate your opinion. Bask in the admiration of others.

For months I have been chiding the EuroCrats to understand some basics:  You cannot cut wages, fire people, raise property taxes, and call it a solution.  Finally, now that Greece is on the brink of failure and Italy is on the brink of catastrophe, people are starting to talk about growth. 

The EuroCrats figured out that clichés, slogans, and platitudes don't solve problems.

There has been a fixation with austerity--yes a necessity.  However, austerity without provisions for investment, economic development projects, and growth, is no solution.

There was another proposal.  Forcing investors to take a 50% loss. (Half a loaf is better than none.)  Investors don't invest money to mitigate losses. They make money to make a profit.

Then there was the Ponzi Scheme.  Go to China for investors.  Go to Brazil for investors.  Go to the Petrostates for investors.  That is a Ponzi Scheme.  I don't hear that being talked about anymore.  Not since I said as much on my blog and on Twitter.

Still, even as Greece and Italy are moving in the right direction, Chancellor Merkel is still working to be an impediment.

From USA Today:

Germany's Chancellor Angel Merkel told reporters in Berlin "it is very important ... that Italy wins back its credibility."

"That means the austerity package being implemented very quickly, as is now the plan, and above all the political leadership being clarified as quickly as possible -- because I think that is very important for Italy's credibility," Merkel said.

Chancellor Merkel seems incapable of celebrating the good news.  Greece and Italy are moving toward economic development and are taking responsible action by elevating those to leadership who are qualified, capable, realistic, practical, and I will stop here before I dig myself into an even deeper hole. 

Still, I am most optimistic.  And I believe I should be optimistic.  Why?  Because I am going to take some credit for what is going on.  Someone must have been reading the monographs on my blog and my tweets on Twitter, because what they are doing is what I've been saying they should be doing.  In addition, I heard no one saying what is being said until I started saying it.

The EuroCrats were clutching to a procedure for solving problems that failed repeatedly.

What did you do?
Did it work?
No?
Don't do that!

Papandreou resigned.  Berlusconi resigned.  Perhaps Chancellor Merkel will heed my admonition to "follow the path of the trajectory."  I am not necessarily saying Merkel resign in favour of, say, Wolfgang Schäuble. However, I am suggesting that Chancellor Merkel acknowledge that while austerity is necessary, it is ineffective and ineffectual without Economic Development and Growth.

Sincerely,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Slim Was Right EuroCrats Were Wrong

Cheers and Skepticism Greet EuroDeal.  They always do.  The Elation over a deal, the Deflation over the details.  Plus ca change...

The Headline in the WSJ:  "Will it Work."  Well, does it ever?  No? 

Another quote from a EuroCrat was very disturbing. Very.  "The implementation challenge is higher than  the design challenge."

Translation.  It was easy to come up with a plan.  Implementing the plan will be difficult.

Why?

For one reason, there are few details.  There are always "few details."  Why?  Because there are no details. 

How can you implement a plan if you don't know what you are supposed to do?  Yet, the process goes on.  And that word keeps cropping up.  Process.  This is a process problem.

Herein, I am validated.  Again.  Repeatedly.

"Analysts saw lack of measures to boost economic growth as an Achilles Heel."

How often must I say it?

Cut Wages, fire people, increase property taxes--that is not a plan. That is not a project.  That has not worked. That cannot work without an Economic Development Strategy.  A polite way to say projects.  I referenced that several times. It is on my monograph about China's success.  I won't put the link here.  Google it.

The next disturbing statement: Governments don't know if investors will respond well to the "Insurance Plan."  Already the news on that matter is not good. "Default insurance market takes hit."  I am guessing no one saw that coming.  "There are no unintended consequences, only unwanted consequences."  Slim Fairview

EuroPlan.  Try it and HOPE it works.  That is a plan.  That is not a project.  EuroCrats need to think in terms of Projects not Plans.

The Beefed UP bailout Fund has a critical flaw.  Beef up the fund and hope this would be enough to help out OTHER debtor nations.  Did this help Greece?  No?  You need a new and/or expanded approach. 

The Next Move:  New Fund Plan.  Go to Asia for Investors.  Go to Brazil for Investors.  Go to PetroStates for Investors.  This is not, I repeat NOT a strategy to resolve the EuroCrisis:

THIS IS A PONZI SCHEME. How far down the line do the EuroCrats intend to take this strategy?

Quote from a Greek Citizen:  "Greek people are ashamed and angry."  To the Greek Government.  The People are Angry.  The People are Rioting.  Witness the Path of the Trajectory.

To the EuroCrats:

"Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."  Santayana.
"Those who never learned history are doomed--period!"  Slim Fairview

The problem with the EuroCrats?  They cannot see the present.

"That you cannot predict the future is not the proper rebuff to the person who tells you to get off the tracks because a train is coming.  In this case, "the" train is coming. 

History is approaching quickly and you cannot see it.  The EuroCrats are like the man who drives into a tunnel, sees two headlights approaching, and says, "I'll just drive between those two motor cycles."  Hey, Guys.  I borrowed that joke from Bozo the Clown.  It seems not to be a joke, now.

There are more than enough monographs on my blog to point you in the right direction. 
http://slimviews.blogspot.com


Bon Chance!


Regards,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com


THE HEADLINE:  SLIM WAS RIGHT THE EUROCRATS WERE WRONG

Well, not yet.  However, follow the progression of the tag lines:

Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a month or two.
Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a week or two.
Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a day or two.
Read my blog today, or read it in the Wall Street Journal tomorrow.

Then again, Don't bother asking me.  Everyone always doesn't ask me.


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview.

Resources: Control and Allocation

The impending disaster that awaits:  The Control and Allocation of Resources.

The way these are handled is vital.  It will determine more than the future direction of the Global Economy.  It will determine whether or not there is one.

What to Expect in the Future--If there is one?

http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/07/what-to-expect-in-future-if-there-is.html

To the EuroCrats, The G 20, et. al.


The OWS (Occupy Wall Street) Movement

The Greek Riots.  (Yes, riots!)

The Arab Spring. (You call it the Arab Spring; I call it the Path of the Trajectory.)


The Future: What About the Path of the Trajectory?


As we plan into the future, are we considering the path of the trajectory?
Case in point. The pendulum swings both ways. The farther it swings one way, the farther it swings back.

Globalisation: Will the path of globalisation eventually lead to a path of isolationism?

Information: Will the information that we are relying upon so heavily, eventually become a curse that will lead people to retrench? An information overload can make the information virtually worthless if too much information cannot be accepted as reliable?

Technology: Will the technology that enhances our efforts become so "intrusive" that we are paralysed by its intrusiveness?

Politics: Will the politics of globalisation lead to "Superpower Centers" with a detente between e.g: The Asian Center, The African Center, The Middle Eastern Center, The European Center, The Latin American Center, the North American Center?

Wake up and smell the Starbucks Triple-Shot Cappuccino Venti.  (Extra foamy? Your choice.)


The Resources

Food
Water
Pharmaceuticals
Energy
Technology
Information
Validation

Different Global Regions and Spheres of Influence have or will have varying degrees of Control and Methods and means of Allocation.  Understanding this is Crucial.

Spheres

Asia
America
Africa
Europe
Latin America


The issue is more than a question of Supply and Demand.  Trust me.  On the matter of resources you have:

The Quantity

The Quality

These will be interjected between the Supply and the Demand: Between Control and Allocation.

Unfortunately, if these are not pressing issues now, they will be when it is too late to do anything about it.  However, Pollyanna said I should give it the Old College Try.

As the G 20 prepares to meet, they will be seeking  propter hoc solutions to the pressing issues dujour:

The Increasing EuroDebt

The Declining EuroZone Economy

The Declining Global Economy

Micro and Macro Economics

Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Investment and Banking Strategies.

Désolé

Over the past several months, I've been blogging on the problems and the solutions of the EuroCrisis and the Greek Debt Crisis.  I thought, for a moment, I might have made some progress enlightening the EuroCrats"

What did you do?

Did it work?

No?

Don't do that!

Still, after two years of continuous and continual failures, the EuroCrats are still clutching retentively to their ideologies, even as the world around them is changing.  Oops!  It did it again.

There are more than enough monographs posted on the matter.

The optimistic one was "EuroCrats Take Slim's Advice!

 http://slimviews.blogspot.com/2011/10/eurocrats-take-slims-advice.html


I thought, Finally, the EuroCrats will be addressing Economic Development:

If you can believe Wolfgang Schäuble, and it is in my best interest to do so, the EuroCrats will focus on ways to Promote Economic Growth.  This is something heretofore not addressed.  This is what I have been pressing to no avail--up till now.


As the EuroCrats plan to attend their meeting in Brussels, and the G 20 Leaders plan to attend theirs in Cannes, I can safely say that there is little indication that anything substantive will be accomplished.  Certainly not when Prominent Individuals are discussing empowerment, momentum and excitement. (Empowerment?  This is the EuroUnion, not a Nursery School.) 

And Tim Geithner's remark,

"When France and Germany agree on a plan, big things are possible." 

That, I described as "just silly".  It seems to be an updated version of the old Cold War joke: Boris Badenov's, "Plotting big trouble for Moose and Squirrel."


The EuroCrats have pursued a course that is both ineffective and ineffectual.  They refuse to see what is happening let alone what is going to happen.

"That you cannot predict the future is not a proper rebuff to the person who tells you to get off the track--the train is coming." -- Slim Fairivew


I apologise for the "commercial" reference to Starbucks.  However, it was and is necessary.  Both the reference and the coffee.  You EuroCrats and other World Leaders definitely need to wake up.

Bon chance.


Sincerest regards,


Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

EuroMess

The EuroMess is not the Debt Crisis

The EuroMess is the mismanagement of the EuroCrisis. 

I said the other day, The EuroCrats are acting like monkeys chasing their own tails and chattering with delight when they catch them.  Now the aren't even catching their tails. Still, they are chattering with delight.

The EuroCrats Craft a new plan

Broad ambitions but short on specifics.  Still, they are delighted because it is a comprehensive plan.

It certainly is a safe plan, even if it won't work.  How do I know it won't work? 

Let us review the plan:

Higher Bank Capitalisation.

Beef up the bailout fund.

Bailout for Greece.

Now:

Did they do this before?  Yes.

Repeatedly?  Yes.

Did it work?

No.

Enough said?

No.

Enough said!

Yes!


How do the investors feel?

The investors were elated when the new plan was announced, but their elation was deflated when they learned there are no details.

There is, however, a technical term for this:  Technical Finalisation".


But wait, there's more!

The EuroCrats rely on Private Investors to provide hundreds of billions of Euros that the fund cannot replace.

Berlin demands Private Investors take bigger losses.

Can anyone make space in his head for anyone who tries to explain how Germany is a help to the EuroZone?

I get the impression I am watching a family get together where the Rich Relatives eat the food that the Poor Relatives provided to curry favour.  For what reason I will never know.

"Mama may have; Papa may have; but God bless the child that's got his own--that's got his own."  God Bless the Child--Billie Holiday.


Tim Geithner: 

"When France and Germany agree on a plan, big things are possible"

Is this Tim Geithner the Economist or Tim Geithner the Brush salesman?


China, Russia, India, Brazil offer to help.

That would appear to be a good thing.  Still, that is short on Technical Finalisation.   Let us all wait to see what happens.  [ This does beg the question:  If Emerging Nations contribute to the bailout, what happens to the economies of the emerging nations? ]

"There are no unintended consequences. Only unwanted consequences."  Slim Faiview.  From The Quotations of Slim Fairview Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Please refer to my blog for more details on these and other matters related to the failure of the EuroCrats to solve the crisis.

They are

Intelligent
Educated
Experienced.

In short, they have "credentials". 

Why then the failure?  Because they are clutching retentively to their ideologies.  The problem will never be solved by a plan.  Only by a project.  Nouns do not solve problems.  Verbs solve problems.  We need technocrats.  Not ideologues.

Bon Chance.

Sincerely,

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com


Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview

Oops! EuroGlitch

Chancellor Merkel:  Why use German taxpayer money to bail out a French bank competing with a German bank?
 

Here is the metaphor.

Imagine Germany as the lead man climbing a cliff.

France is the number two guy.

France is being pulled down by number three.

France asks Germany for help.

Germany won't help because France might get to the top first.

France falls and pulls Germany down with her.

Is Merkel the problem?

Some things work and some things don't work. 

"Austerity impedes the growth necessary to expand the economy beyond the debt load" -- Slim Fairview

"Expansion can come only from the growth arising from economic stimulus."  --Slim Fairview

"Everybody knows what everybody knows." --Slim Fairview



Perhaps more people in the EuroZone should be scanning my blog.

Regards,

Slim

PS  Sometimes it is tempting for the strong to cut off the weak member.  Other times it may be better for the weak to cut off the strong member.

Slim

slimfairview@yahoo.com

Copyright (c) 2011 Slim Fairview