Monday, March 20, 2017
Oil: Speculation or Calculation?
It would seem that we undervalue the influence of speculation.
Why increase production unless you have a reasonable expectation of a growth curve?
You know that increasing supply with the expectation of oversupply and declining demand as a result of a slowing global economy will drive prices down.
Expert analysts had to have known that Saudi Arabia would act to protect revenue. And that protection played out by Saudi Arabia pumping oil.
In addition, in "Energy Independence" I pointed out that if we no longer buy Saudi Arabian oil, we will no longer be customers. And by extension, we will no longer be friends. At best, we will have an expedient relationship. I also pointed out that Saudi Arabian officials will be talking to Chinese officials. They are.
The only reasonable interpretation goes to motive.
Flood the market, drive down prices, and drive competitors out of business. Then buy up their assets at bargain prices.
Add to this the propensity to speculate on price fluctuations must in some manner add to the price fluctuations.
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